Round 1 Exit Poll Results and Predictions Thread

[eskimo2]

Note: This is not a plane lobby thread!  There are plenty of those.

I was tempted to post the exit poll results from the first 100 replies in the “Round 1 Exit Poll” thread , but didn’t want to break my own “No talk, just state what you voted for after you have actually voted” rule.  So here’s a thread just for the results and predictions based on the results.  Please feel free to recount my results.  Also feel free to post tallies after every 50 thread replies (thread replies, not necessarily actual votes).

P-39 . . . . . . . . .    20
Brewster Buffalo .    3
Me 410 . . . . . . .    13
He 111 . . . . . . .    10
B-25 . . . . . . . . .    4
Pe-2 or Tu-2 . . .    9
Yak 3 . . . . . . . .    3
G.55 . . . . . . . . .    15
Japanese fighter .    5
A-26 . . . . . . . . .    11

The P-39 has a good lead, followed by the G.55 and the Me 410.  The questions are, once planes are eliminated:  

Will those who voted for bombers that were dropped vote for other bombers in future rounds?

Will those who voted for late war uber/performance fighters that were dropped vote for other late war uber/performance fighters in future rounds?

Will those who voted for planes based on scenario/historical needs that were dropped vote for other planes that will also fit scenario/historical needs in future rounds?

[Krusty]

Unfortunately, that means very little... Out of a 5000-7000 player population, how many replied on the forum?

Not a good sample, methinks.

Interesting to read, but can't tell the real pattern.

[eskimo2]

Note: if your posts per page count is set to view 50 posts per page, these results only represent the first 2 pages.  Posts per page set to 25: = 4 pages, etc.  Next tally at 150 replies (by anyone).

[eskimo2]

Originally posted by Krusty
Unfortunately, that means very little... Out of a 5000-7000 player population, how many replied on the forum?

Not a good sample, methinks.

Interesting to read, but can't tell the real pattern.

Well, it is still early.  However, based on the results so far I’d say the Buffalo, B-25, Yak-3 and Japanese fighter stand a poor chance of even making it to Round 3.  The P-39, G.55 and M3 410 stand a good chance of making it to round 3; I’d even bet that one of them will win.

[FrodeMk3]

I imagine we can expect some official results from Pyro or HTC in the next 24-48 hrs.

[Sketch]

Originally posted by FrodeMk3
I imagine we can expect some official results from Pyro or HTC in the next 24-48 hrs.

Finally!!  It won't be 2-weeks!!  

[Karnak]

Personally I don't see the point of even doing the poll.

Put a single American fighter on the poll and the result is a forgone conclusion.  Only my having multiple American fighters or none would the issue be in doubt.  And if there were multiple US fighters, it would only be between the US fighters, all other aircraft would be irrelevant .

That is my guess anyways.

[eskimo2]

The G.55 and Me 410 are putting up a good show and it is still very early.  

The P39, however, does fill lots of niches and was widely produced.  It is also a very unique airplane; tricycle gear, mid engine, bug gun, nasty flat spin, side door.  It can be plugged into a lot of scenarios and is early war.  It’s been one of my favorites for a long time.

[tedrbr]

This just in!

Two week delay on results in order to stuff the ballot boxes.


Have to agree that the poll here will mean nothing in overall popular vote.

Many more players, many with far less knowledge about the planes listed on the MoTD pop up when entering the game, will probably just pick what they recognize from what they've heard of or seen in a movie once.  The voting page does not have the benefit of links to explain what each plane really is or can do.  I'm not convinced the masses have enough to make an INFORMED vote.

Simple name recognition will probably skew some numbers for the He-111 and B-25.  Then there will be the number of American players simply voting for American planes they know about: skew results toward the B-25 and P-39 (not that many know the 'Vader or Buffalo).

Lack of knowledge will hurt the G.55, Me 410, and A-26 in online vote numbers.  The non-specific categories for "Japanese fighters" and Russian bombers" may hurt their chances..... plus I doubt a bomber will win popular vote, unless there is some rebellion in later votes.

Will Niki fans simply vote for a Japanese fighter hoping to get an even more heavily cannon-armed plane?  Will some players vote for the Me 410 because that number is much higher than 262, 111, 190, 109, 234, 110, 87, and 88 are?  Will lack of familiarity, or knowledge that it is an "only" an Italian plane, doom the G.55 in the first round?

From the numbers posted:
B-25 looks low from what online numbers probably are, 2 Finns voted for the Buffalo (one twice under shade account), 410 numbers higher than I expected so far.

My prediction on what gets cut in first round of online popular vote:

Brewster Buffalo (not a prayer)
G.55  (general lack of information by proles may kill this one, HOPE NOT, my second choice!!)
Yak 3 .(lower number than Yak 9....must be bad right?)
Pe-2 or Tu-2   (non-American bombers most not very familiar with)

Leaving:
P-39 .
Me 410
He 111
B-25
Japanese fighter
A-26

After that, I think it will come down to online lobbying to pull numbers for the weekend vote, and those that get cut after that.  The next two cut is a real toss up.  Will have a better idea when I see the first cuts.

Now, does HTC have an electoral college going here we don't know about?  Or is this going to be a straight popular vote?  Maybe the online vote (House of Representatives?) should have been accompanied by a forum vote (Senate?) with differences worked out in committee.  That would take...what...two weeks?

Money is still on P-39...my third, maybe forth, choice.

[eskimo2]

I downloaded the newest version of AHII just to vote, I haven’t played in over a year.  Has there been many in-game discussions about the plane choices and voting?

[Easyscor]

Several large squads I know, have former AW guys who loved the A-26 over there, it'll remain a contender near the end. I'd like to have every plane on the list, especially the A-26 and G.55 but events come first in my book so I'm with the P-39 until the end.  It's a fair, down in the weeds furballer as well so it will see use in all the MAs.

[eskimo2]

I live with an old man who recorded these hours:

[Raptor]

Statistically that could be a good representation of the population. It is a random sample with a sample size larger than 30 which makes it an acceptable sample. However it would be a better representation of the BBs population. You would have to assume that the AH BBs population is representative of the AH population for it to work.

[Karnak]

Originally posted by Raptor
Statistically that could be a good representation of the population. It is a random sample with a sample size larger than 30 which makes it an acceptable sample. However it would be a better representation of the BBs population. You would have to assume that the AH BBs population is representative of the AH population for it to work.

On average, I think the AH BB's population is better informed about WWII aircraft that the general AH player population, just due to exposure to certain BB member's posts if nothing else.

[eskimo2]

Originally posted by Raptor
Statistically that could be a good representation of the population. It is a random sample with a sample size larger than 30 which makes it an acceptable sample. However it would be a better representation of the BBs population. You would have to assume that the AH BBs population is representative of the AH population for it to work.

Yea, I think tedrbr makes a valid point that the BBS crowd may be somewhat more educated on plane types...

Still, I wouldn't expect the Buffalo to surge ahead in the real poll/vote.