Author Topic: Naturally Occuring Global Warming  (Read 3110 times)

Offline bozon

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6037
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #60 on: April 17, 2007, 04:53:17 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hazzer
Until we are certain,we should take the worst case scenario and act accordingly,but pouring pollutants into the atmoshpere has other downsides beside any possible Global warming.I would like to know who was behind the documentry before I would believe a word of it.

I don't know who is "behind" it, but I know at least one of them (Nir Shaviv) and attended a talk he gave at my faculty (his father is a well known astrophysicist and a professor here). I can't believe he has a secret agenda or on the pay roll of some corporation.

He also addressed the "precautions, just in case" claim. An example he gave was a power plant that emit very little CO2, but work at 40% less efficiency. Is that better? burning a hell of a lot more fossil fuel to cut back on CO2? is that good for the environment? the economy?
Can't you find better uses for funds in other environmental issues?

Precautions are good, but acting in panic and without thought is not.
Mosquito VI - twice the spitfire, four times the ENY.

Click!>> "So, you want to fly the wooden wonder" - <<click!
the almost incomplete and not entirely inaccurate guide to the AH Mosquito.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGOWswdzGQs

Offline john9001

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 9453
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #61 on: April 17, 2007, 05:18:09 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by bozon
I don't know who is "behind" it, but I know at least one of them (Nir Shaviv) and attended a talk he gave at my faculty (his father is a well known astrophysicist and a professor here). I can't believe he has a secret agenda or on the pay roll of some corporation.
 

was he paid to give that talk?

Offline Denholm

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 9667
      • No. 603 Squadron
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #62 on: April 17, 2007, 05:48:28 PM »
$2,000,000 says no.
Get your Daily Dose of Flame!
FlameThink.com
No. 603 Squadron... Visit us on the web, if you dare.

Drug addicts are always disappointed after eating Pot Pies.

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #63 on: April 17, 2007, 06:19:44 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
So only those on one side of the debate are influencing science through their purse strings?  Or maybe scientists who apply for grants from Greenpeace of the Sierra Club are impervious to corruption?

You have never written a grant proposal have you?


Not really. So, I guess I have a personal and independed conclusion.
BTW, once it comes to whether people belive whether the climate is warming, I never met anyone eye-to-eye from the opposite camp, neither have I heard of any in my country! (well, there have to be some). The ones on the "globe not warming" that I have exhanged words with online have some 90%+ probability of being from the USA. Why the heck?
Since through my life and profession I had to deal with many an expert in many a field, I must say that while their opinion on our terra firma being warming up now is in perfect harmony, none of tham has aquired a grant. At all probably.
Actually, since the European educational society is somewhat different from the USA, - grants are not essential, not even to get to the top league. My cousin is a doctor in maritime biology (his wife is also a biologist), I'll put my $$$ and $'es on their warming opinion, and a double $$$ that they don't run on grants....
The blueball is bigger than the USA, and in continents such as Europe, or at least many countries therefrom, the "Grant" does not format your opinion inforehand....
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Holden McGroin

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 8591
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #64 on: April 17, 2007, 07:07:11 PM »
Quote
Since through my life and profession I had to deal with many an expert in many a field, I must say that while their opinion on our terra firma being warming up now is in perfect harmony, none of tham has aquired a grant. At all probably.


But these experts have to rely on scientific inquiry to achieve global perspective... otherwise they are an expert only on local climate.  To make a living by drilling ice cores and writing papers requires that you ask somebody to be your sugar daddy.  If one is honest in an opinion that the identity of the money source skews the results, it must hold for all sides of the debate.

By the way, has anyone in AH OC claimed "the globe isn't warming?"

Or does your opposition argue the possibility that:

1. the globe has been warming without human interference since the glaciers covered Chicago and sabre tooth tigers were being caught in the La Brea Tar Pits or that

2. the global temperature trend is still within statistical noise?
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline Brenjen

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1514
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #65 on: April 17, 2007, 07:35:39 PM »
If "global warming" is a modern problem, then why has "global warming" & "global cooling" been going on in cycles for thousands of millennium?  :confused:

 Why was that Mastodon found with fresh buttercups in his mouth fast frozen?

Why was the year 1816 known as "the year without a summer" or also known as "Eighteen hundred and froze to death"?

 Why is it that large volcanoes are blamed & scientists say "see" but they have to show graphs where the global temp dropped an entire degree because no one feels any difference? (remember Mt.St.Helens? I didn't notice a difference in the temperatures & it was supposedly a big eruption as eruptions go)

 Why can't all the scientists agree if there is all this "proof" of modern man causing "global warming" with pollution?


 It's a natural occurrence, it happened before & it'll happen again. Maybe as in the case of the mastodon it'll be sudden & catastrophic but I doubt it'll be caused by my old Dodge or Arnold's Hummer. It'll probably be an impact from space or a solar anomaly that either heats us way up or cools us way down....I'd prefer the cooler one, I hate the heat.

Offline VooWho

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1214
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #66 on: April 17, 2007, 07:44:24 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by AWMac
Lets just Nuke the Polar Ice caps to see if All Gore was right.

Just a few Nukes, not many.

We need some beachfront in Oklahoma anyways.

:D

Mac


OMG dude your so right. We need one here in Oklahoma and then we can sail on Texas ugly face. Texas is whats causing global warming. They don't stop building in Dallas, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and all the suburbs of those larger towns.
Non Sibi Sed Patriae!

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #67 on: April 18, 2007, 03:35:43 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
But these experts have to rely on scientific inquiry to achieve global perspective... otherwise they are an expert only on local climate.  To make a living by drilling ice cores and writing papers requires that you ask somebody to be your sugar daddy.  If one is honest in an opinion that the identity of the money source skews the results, it must hold for all sides of the debate.

By the way, has anyone in AH OC claimed "the globe isn't warming?"

Or does your opposition argue the possibility that:

1. the globe has been warming without human interference since the glaciers covered Chicago and sabre tooth tigers were being caught in the La Brea Tar Pits or that

2. the global temperature trend is still within statistical noise?


Call it local if you like, well global adds up with lots of locals. Okay, I'll stick to my little local(s), Iceland-Greenland and the N-Atlantic to the N-Pole, which is our climatic territory. It's by no means a small slab of the globe.
The Metreologists whose eyes roll from the Gulf of Mexico to Norway notice an increase in temperature and "funny" numbers. Metreological records are being put at a faster rate. The Farmers, well they grow things now that didn't thrive before, and crops of various sorts are going up, - a lot. Fields are being worked at all seasons (ploughing in December was headline news some 15 years ago)  and there are new enemies in the form of insects and fungus that didn't survive here before. The biologists notice that factor as well, and the terminators profit from it. The Oceanologists notice ricing temperatures in the seas, changes in currents, and changes in the habits of the fish. So, many pieces of the puzzle coming together right under our noses. But the glaceologists have the high score, for what they are seeing right under their noses is absolutely stunning. The Northern Icecap is disappearing (been there for what, 20 MILLION YEARS), and the land based glaciers, which have been recorded smaller, are retreating at extremely high speeds, so heading for a long-time record.
The politicians try to analyze this lot, - in our case, a little warmer climate is just nice, and it was anticipated, just not at that speed. It is now a part of the routine when foreign high caliber politicans show up here, to fly them to a nearby glacier, or even to Greenland and let them have a look by themselves, - usually causes quite some gasping and sentences like "I had no idea that it was so much" etc. If Bush shows up, thet's where we'd take him ;)
Anyway, to the speculations:
1. the globe has been warming without human interference since the glaciers covered Chicago and sabre tooth tigers were being caught in the La Brea Tar Pits or that .
- Not really, it had reached quite cosy temperatures thousands of years ago, then fluctuating up and down, - nice examples are the warm period in the Viking times, and the "little" iseage some few hundred years later.

2. the global temperature trend is still within statistical noise?
- good question. If it still is, it's heading out very fast.

So, maybe I get my grant now. "The combined evidence of global warming", how's that for a title?

 :p
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #68 on: April 18, 2007, 04:03:44 AM »
Next chapter, - Brenjen. Subject: Volcanoes.
Good thing to bring up the subject of volcanoes, and their effect on global climate. BTW, there are members of this board that have claimed that volcanoes are to blame for warming, there are also members that claim that warming isn't happening.
Anyway, your elephant frose to death, so it must have cooled quickly. Like it did in 1816, which was, by the way, the direct result of the massive volcanic explosion & eruption on Mt. Tambora in Indonesia a year before.
Now, the Mt.Helens eruption is by no means a huge event, and is dwarfed by bouth Mt-Tambora and another really big one, Laki in my neighbourhood 1783 to 1786. Laki cooled the atmosphere all the way down to Egypt, caused death through poison and famine through cold and bad crops in most of the N-Hemisphere in the following years. What was released:
An estimated 122 Tg (120 Million tons) of sulphur dioxide was emitted into the atmosphere: approximately equivalent to three times the total annual European industrial output in 2006, and also equivalent to a Mount Pinatubo-1991 eruption every three days. (This causes cooling, and the quantity was actually enough to kill people outside some thousands of Km's away),it produced about 15 km³ (3.6 mi³) of basalt lava (some rough 500 sq km if I remember right), and the total volume of tephra emitted was 0.91 km3, fluorine was some 800 million tonnes.
Tambora was a big kaboom, easily heard 2.600 kilometres, the mountain basically blew up and got thrown away. While being the largest observed eruption in history, Laki probably holds the cards for released lava and perhaps other material, - these are two kinds of eruptions you see.
By comparison to both, St. Helens isn't really much.
So, they did cool, and that very quickly, but beware, it doesn't calculate into the N-Hemisphere temp numbers with high numbers. This is what Benjamin Franklin wrote of the summer after Laki:
"During several of the summer months of the year 1783, when the effect of the sun's rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should have been greater, there existed a constant fog over all Europe, and a great part of North America. This fog was of a permanent nature; it was dry, and the rays of the sun seemed to have little effect towards dissipating it, as they easily do a moist fog, arising from water. They were indeed rendered so faint in passing through it, that when collected in the focus of a burning glass they would scarce kindle brown paper. Of course, their summer effect in heating the Earth was exceedingly diminished. Hence the surface was early frozen. Hence the first snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more severely cold. Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4 was more severe than any that had happened for many years. "
In England and N-Europe the cooling was even more severe, and some go as far to say that this was what kindled the French revolution in 1789, - it was after all related to famine.
So, here ya go, - big volcanic eruptions have a fast cooling factor, and once the fallout has cleared the effect is going away. We can expect this, and there is nothing we can do to stop it.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline bozon

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6037
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #69 on: April 18, 2007, 04:57:24 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
So, maybe I get my grant now. "The combined evidence of global warming", how's that for a title?

You still keep missing the point Holden and others are making. There's very little argue about global temperatures rising (since recent history - it was warmer in the distant past). The debate with whether humanity had anything to do with it.
Mosquito VI - twice the spitfire, four times the ENY.

Click!>> "So, you want to fly the wooden wonder" - <<click!
the almost incomplete and not entirely inaccurate guide to the AH Mosquito.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGOWswdzGQs

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #70 on: April 18, 2007, 05:24:08 AM »
Well, excuse me, but any GLOBAL rise has been hotly debated on these threads.
As for the human interference, look at the other side of the coin, - do you really belive that our drastic changes on our terra firma in the past few hundred years as well as our changes to varius elements of the atmosphere, have NO impact on global climate??????
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Holden McGroin

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 8591
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #71 on: April 18, 2007, 10:18:26 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Anyway, to the speculations:
1. the globe has been warming without human interference since the glaciers covered Chicago and sabre tooth tigers were being caught in the La Brea Tar Pits or that .
- Not really, it had reached quite cosy temperatures thousands of years ago, then fluctuating up and down, - nice examples are the warm period in the Viking times, and the "little" ice age some few hundred years later.


So you use the natural fluctuations of the medieval warm period and little ice age as a proof that todays fluctuation is not natural?  I don't know what the term is for that specific logical fallacy, but I know it when I see it.

Quote

2. the global temperature trend is still within statistical noise?
- good question. If it still is, it's heading out very fast.

So, maybe I get my grant now. "The combined evidence of global warming", how's that for a title?
[/B]


It's a great title...  an shows a predjudice to the outcome of your study, although it would have a better chance of funding if you titled it "The combined evidence of anthropogenic [/i]global warming"
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #72 on: April 18, 2007, 10:49:30 AM »
"So you use the natural fluctuations of the medieval warm period and little ice age as a proof that todays fluctuation is not natural?"

I mentioned them as an example of natural fluctuations. They didn't come close to melting the North Pole at the speeds we see today, so if it just carries on another 40 years or so, we have to go millions of years back to find anything as great.
Look at the whole pond please.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Holden McGroin

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 8591
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #73 on: April 18, 2007, 11:51:13 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
I mentioned them as an example of natural fluctuations. They didn't come close to melting the North Pole at the speeds we see today, so if it just carries on another 40 years or so, we have to go millions of years back to find anything as great.


So you have scientific evidence of the extent and rate of change of the north polar ice cap during the medeival warm period?  I would like to read the report...
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline john9001

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 9453
Naturally Occuring Global Warming
« Reply #74 on: April 18, 2007, 12:15:47 PM »
as i have stated before, the earth was nice and stable under miles of ice caps during the ice age, then some caveman, er, i mean a caveperson invented fire and it has been downhill ever since.