Originally posted by Holden McGroin
When I make a prediction based upon Newtons Universal law of Gravitation, I can be correct within 99.99999% 99.99999% of the time.
This theory works this well on anything with mass. Pretty good.
That is a serious issue in the logic you used, comparing the theory of gravity to climate models.
Large extremes in weather have always happened. The last time a record setting temperature, rainfall, or drought occured, that was a weater extreme.
I am glad to have this continuing non-debate with you.
#1... I didn't use Newton's law of Gravitation at any point in time...YOU brought that into the conversation... and it is nowhere near the same thing. Newton's law works because gravity is a CONSTANT...acted upon by one variable, itself. There will never be a climate model come close to that degree of accuracy, the variables are just too many.
Repeated runnings of models that use these variables gets you into the ballpark, but it will never find you home base.
#2. As for your..."weather extremes" definition... I will go with your advertised definition and now show you something which merits a look.
According to an AP analysis of U.S. weather data, a total of 263 all-time high temperature records were broken or tied in 2007. In August alone, 8,000 new heat records were broken or tied in the US alone. In addition that same month saw more than a hundred all time records broken, regardless of month. Either for the highest temperature or the warmest low temperature by night, it was definitely a weird August for America.
Also, watch the news and see the west coast get upwards of 10 FEET of snow this next few days... tell me that's normal and I have you by the gonads.