General Climate Discussion

[Angus]

I shrug my shoulders and look out the window.
Nice, I think, I can start ploughing tomorrow.
It's been stormy, so I'm happy not to be at sea.
The ground is barren, there is no frost in it and the newest fields are still green.
I think "would this hit the news, ploughing in January", but discard the idea.
Ploughing at this time of year was indeed a frontpage issue some 20 years ago, but not any more...

[Jackal1]

Originally posted by Angus
Ploughing at this time of year was indeed a frontpage issue some 20 years ago, but not any more...

Ahhhhhhhhhhh the good old days before Britney and Hillary, when plowing was all the rage.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by Curval
LOL Holden...

Nice cherry pick on the bolding.  You missed this:

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced the predicted number of named storms

Which contradicts what you said in your initial post.

And you missed this:

April 3We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 185 percent of the long-term average.

November summaryThe 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane season had activity at near-average levels. This activity was less than predicted in our seasonal forecasts.

185% vs Near Normal.

 Look at the November season summary even they chide themselves with the large text statement,

“Meteorologists are known to be absolutely brilliant at after-the-fact explanation of weather phenomena … but please don’t press us too hard on future events!!”

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by MORAY37 #1... I didn't use Newton's law of Gravitation at any point in time...YOU brought that into the conversation... and it is nowhere near the same thing. Newton's law works because gravity is a CONSTANT...acted upon by one variable, itself. There will never be a climate model come close to that degree of accuracy, the variables are just too many.

Really?

Originally posted by MORAY37
Yep, and gravity IS STILL A THEORY. I wonder how that can be, in your universe of certainty?

I guess you were talking about something else.

[Angus]

Originally posted by Jackal1
Ahhhhhhhhhhh the good old days before Britney and Hillary, when plowing was all the rage.

Maybe it's Britney's heat added by Hillary's fury that makes Icelandic ground plougable in January?



Indeed, in the time of Bush (Kate), it was colder.

[lazs2]

curval..  we are spending billions a year on these computer models..  I really don't have much problem with that tho..   It is probly a good thing to understand the weather.

I have nothing against "study" but I do against the half baked conclusions and solutions.

As for the EPA... this may surprise you but many of our tax funded operations here are wasteful and greedy and self serving and not very efficient or even right very often... It may surprise you that the EPA has very little scientific expertise (I deal with them on a day to day basis) and that most are simply girls fresh out of berkley or some liberal institution.. they have a lot of lawyers and administrators but... not too heavy in the science dept.   they parrot studies handed to them and....

They are reactionary.. they react to "groups"  they are constantly threatened with lawsuits by activist "environmental" groups for not doing "something" about..  whatever..   even if it is wrong and no matter how much it costs.

A lot of these activist "environmental" groups are nothing but packs of lawyers looking for a big fat sick elk to bring down.   They get their 33% the easy way since... they are unopossed.. the EPA will never fight for the people.

I think it wise to look at all the mistakes the EPA has made in the past because of just such activism as I have described..  Look at MTBE for instance... To me.. the EPA is mostly a very bad thing for the country.

lazs

[2Slow]

As I recall, in the late '60's and early '70's the concern was about the coming Ice Age.

Our collective pollution was reflecting the Sun's energy and preventing it from reaching the surface.

There must of not been any money in this theory.  Thus, it went away.

Here it is as I see it.  The Sun's activity is causing the ice cap melt.  The ice cap melt will dilute the salinity of the seas.  This reduction in salinity will interrupt the ocean streams that bring warmth to the northern reaches of the northern hemisphere.  We get an "ice age" of some sort.

With the increase in the polar ice caps, the salinity of the oceans increases.  The ocean streams, such as the Gulf Stream, resume operation.  We get warm again.

[Curval]

Originally posted by lazs2
I have nothing against "study" but I do against the half baked conclusions and solutions.

Any results are half-baked if they don't agree with your opinion lazs.  You have shown that to be the fact by poo pooing any such study that has been shown to you here.

As to the EPA....I neither support them or pay any attention to them.

I was merely showing Holden that Climate Change as a concept is not something new that replaces GW due to a period of cold weather.  Simple as that.

[john9001]

MTBE, the EPA's poster child.

[lazs2]

Not the first john.. they caused mudslides because they felt salinity in wastewater was a bad thing.. unfortunately.. the salinity held the clay together (simplified version) and... as usual.. they caused more harm than good.

The early smog devices they mandated caused more pollution than they cured.. it was only the invention of computer controlled fuel injection that made smog devices workable.   and that would have happened no matter what the EPA said or did.   They are simply a big, clumsy, and stupid agency who can be jerked around at will by politicians and activists and lawyers seeking a buck.

That is why study is not a bad thing but hysteria always is.    Study all you want but make sure you have the answer or..  even understand the question before you go ham fisting it on the environment.   "doing something" often results in disaster.

I think we should study everything about climate.  no problem but..  as has been shown.. more and more scientists are getting off the whole man made c02  causing global warming thing.   the more it is studied the more the need for debate is clear.

lazs

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by Curval
I was merely showing Holden that Climate Change as a concept is not something new that replaces GW due to a period of cold weather.  Simple as that.

My point was not that the earth has cooled and GW/CC is therefore not a problem.

I brought up the CSU hurricane prediction model because it is much less complex than any global warming model.  It needs only look out a year or a few months, is concerned with only a specific regoinal weather phenomenon, and last year was off (admitted by Colo State Univ) by close to 85%!

Now that is a single season and they might be within only a few percentage points on other years, but the precision of the model must be somewhat in question.

I doubt Global climate models can be much closer...

I got within 35% on my company NFL pool this year and still lost.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by MORAY37
Also, watch the news and see the west coast get upwards of 10 FEET of snow this next few days... tell me that's normal and I have you by the gonads.

The party reached the base of the steep summit on October 31, just as snow was beginning to fall.  And although some in the group were able to reach the summit, they were forced to turn back as there was no way the whole party could get through.  Heavy snow continued falling overnight and by morning the pass was completely blocked by snowdrifts over twenty feet high.  They had come 2,500 miles in seven months to lose their race with the weather by one day, only 150 miles from their destination of Sutter's Fort (what is now Sacramento) in California  

Blue Canyon, California is the snowiest city in the country and averages 240.8 inches of snow each year.

Blue Canyon is in Placer County, in the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade metro area.

[Angus]

You too?

[MORAY37]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Really?



I guess you were talking about something else.

Holden seriously... could ya stop with the splitting of the hairs?  I'm starting to think I gave you too much credit... or perhaps you didn't spend a whole lotta time actually studying what you spout.  (Perhaps you're still in college?)  I don't know which.

Gravity is a constant.  That cannot be argued... nor am I.  It can be measured and predicted to the n'th  degree... but why it exists IS still a theory.  There has not been a proof yet that has yielded an all encompassing reason why gravity can even exist.

  If you can't see the difference in this statement, and its implications therein,  I have to say then, that the conversation is way over your head.

[MORAY37]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Blue Canyon, California is the snowiest city in the country and averages 240.8 inches of snow each year.

Blue Canyon is in Placer County, in the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade metro area.

I suppose it's routine to get half of it in one storm.