General Climate Discussion

[AKH]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Here ya go AKH

So there is some backup against holding the Mann Hockeystick as gospel.

Let's go back a paragraph...

The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes the additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and documentation of the spatial coherence of recent warming described above (Cook et al. 2004, Moberg et al. 2005b, Rutherford et al. 2005, D’Arrigo et al. 2006, Osborn and Briffa 2006, Wahl and Ammann in press) and also the pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators described in previous chapters (e.g., Thompson et al. in press).

You did say discredited, didn't you?

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by AKH
Let's go back a paragraph...

You did say discredited, didn't you?

When the National Academy of sciences cite  "substantial uncertainties" to data prior to 1600, and even more uncertainties to their conclusions that the 1990's were the warmest decade....  that discredits it in my view.

I mean we are talking about a 1 degree rize in the last century being huge and the foundational data for many is substantially uncertain.

The only thing the NAS seems to have taken is that Mann shows the climate is warming.

[AKH]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
When the National Academy of sciences cite  "substantial uncertainties" to data prior to 1600, and even more uncertainties to their conclusions that the 1990's were the warmest decade....  that discredits it in my view.

I mean we are talking about a 1 degree rize in the last century being huge and the foundational data for many is substantially uncertain.

The only thing the NAS seems to have taken is that Mann shows the climate is warming.

The use of terms like "unprecedented" tends to imply more, or do you only pick out keywords that make your argument appear more plausible?

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by AKH
The use of terms like "unprecedented" tends to imply more, or do you only pick out keywords that make your argument appear more plausible?

Unprecedented does not imply, it means that there is no precedant, that something has never happened before.

It is a strong word.

[lazs2]

ok... so moray.. you do not think that man made co2 is causing catastrophic warming?   It is hard to tell sometimes but "third rate player" seems to confirm this... please.. just tell us yes or no.

Is man made global warming caused by our contribution to co2?

part two would be... do you think we are in an unprecedented and catastrophic warming period and if so...  what is causing it?

I believe that the answers by you would go a long way toward making you look less evasive.  Point being.. when I say the co2 numbers don't add up.. you defend the co2 acolytes and try to trash the math.. yet... you then say that co2 is a third rate player.   Which is it?  and if not co2...  what is it?  or.. is it even worth getting upset about?

as for the numbers.. I don't believe anyone has argued that the effect of co2 does not diminish as the concentration increases so that it is not linear.  

as for margin of error.. if 1 degree is what we are all getting upset about.. then the margin of error is a major player... on the one hand... we have on "mann" saying that the history of the planets climate is a hockey stick..

This would deny that there was ever a mideveal warm period as warm or warmer than today or that there ever was a "little ice age".

I think it fair that, asking moray what he believes.. I should say what I do..

I believe we are in a warming period... so far.. it has been very very good for us...  I believe that if it is helped by anything we are doing as a people then it is a very tiny bit and that co2 has such an insignificant effect as to be a sideshow.

I believe that we won't see much more in the way of this warm period tho and we will go back to a colder period.. with any luck.. it won't come soon and when it does.. it won't be too bad.  

lazs

[Angus]

Lazs, it would also be interesting to know if you belive that the globe has been warming in the last 25 years or not...
So, no playing with it.
I have seen conflicting statements there, as well as the unsupported claim that it has been cooling in the last years.....

[MORAY37]

Originally posted by lazs2
ok... so moray.. you do not think that man made co2 is causing catastrophic warming?   It is hard to tell sometimes but "third rate player" seems to confirm this... please.. just tell us yes or no.

Is man made global warming caused by our contribution to co2?

part two would be... do you think we are in an unprecedented and catastrophic warming period and if so...  what is causing it?

I believe that the answers by you would go a long way toward making you look less evasive.  Point being.. when I say the co2 numbers don't add up.. you defend the co2 acolytes and try to trash the math.. yet... you then say that co2 is a third rate player.   Which is it?  and if not co2...  what is it?  or.. is it even worth getting upset about?

as for the numbers.. I don't believe anyone has argued that the effect of co2 does not diminish as the concentration increases so that it is not linear.  

as for margin of error.. if 1 degree is what we are all getting upset about.. then the margin of error is a major player... on the one hand... we have on "mann" saying that the history of the planets climate is a hockey stick..

This would deny that there was ever a mideveal warm period as warm or warmer than today or that there ever was a "little ice age".

I think it fair that, asking moray what he believes.. I should say what I do..

I believe we are in a warming period... so far.. it has been very very good for us...  I believe that if it is helped by anything we are doing as a people then it is a very tiny bit and that co2 has such an insignificant effect as to be a sideshow.

I believe that we won't see much more in the way of this warm period tho and we will go back to a colder period.. with any luck.. it won't come soon and when it does.. it won't be too bad.  

lazs

Jesus, bro, you are dense.

#1.  Yes, CO2 is causing a warming event.  YES
#2.  NO, CO2 is not a very efficient Greenhouse gas.  H20 vapor and CH4 are infinitely better at warming... but they aren't changing in content yet.

Seriously, stop asking me questions that I JUST ANSWERED A POST AGO.
I get a feeling you had issues with either ADD, or just weren't a good student at all.

My cats make more sense when they "meow".  At least I have a free interpretation on what they mean....unlike your mishmash of ideology and lost logic.

The warming period has been very very good for us?  There are water shortages on both coasts right now.  The largest fire in recent historical times almost burned San Diego.  Floods in Europe, followed by droughts.  Alaskan coastline, eroding away by the day.  You have a very, very short attention span.

[john9001]

Originally posted by MORAY37

The warming period has been very very good for us?  There are water shortages on both coasts right now.  The largest fire in recent historical times almost burned San Diego.  Floods in Europe, followed by droughts.  Alaskan coastline, eroding away by the day.  You have a very, very short attention span.

moray is right, this is the first time in the history of mankind that there have been water shortages, floods, droughts, fires, and eroding coastlines.


i put the full blame on the Wicked Witch of the East.

[AKIron]

Originally posted by john9001
moray is right, this is the first time in the history of mankind that there have been water shortages, floods, droughts, fires, and eroding coastlines.


i put the full blame on the Wicked Witch of the East.

I agree that Hillary can be blamed for a lot of ill but I'll stop short of blaming her for droughts.

[SadSack]

My two cents....

I was completely for global warming right before I was completely against it!

[Angus]

Be against it if you like, but it's still gonnaa warm your butt

[Louis XVII]

Lazs thinks the "envirnoment" guys are wobbling, but maybe it's Lazs?

Ok.. are we now off of the whole man made global warming thing and onto man made destroy the ocean?

Now.. are we back on climate or do we want to go onto ocean pollution?

I'll have to let you off that one, because it seems the topic title got changed for some reason. It was originally something like MMGW... The environment guys have been consistent in maintaining that Man Made Global Warming stems from one principal activity - the burning of fossil fuels. This has a negative impact on the climate AND the oceans. So we're not "off" one thing, and "on" to another. And we are not "off" CO2 and "on" to H20; I have said before that burning fossil fuels creates BOTH. Maybe you didn't read it - no surprise there then.

I believe we are in a warming period... so far.. it has been very very good for us...

Well LOL, on two counts. For the last n posts, you've been saying that the earth has been cooling for at least 7 years. But that's probably because your graphs don't go past year 2000, and you have extrapolated the trend based on what happened in previous years? Sounds like the sort of thing you'd do, and I'm not the only one saying it. ^

As for LOL #2, the warming has been good for.... us? Who is "us"? Do you mean all inhabitants of the earth, or just a select subset of human inhabitants in one particular continent, country or state? Because from what I've read (just yesterday) entire species of organisms are coming under the threat of extinction because of the warming. And, you might say this is "no problem" because the species under direct threat are not human. But again, human life is dependent many small organisms (eg. algae in the oceans that generate 70% of the earth's atmospheric oxygen - there are others). So if you think that the current warming is good for "us", maybe you'd better think again.

[MORAY37]

Originally posted by john9001
moray is right, this is the first time in the history of mankind that there have been water shortages, floods, droughts, fires, and eroding coastlines.


i put the full blame on the Wicked Witch of the East.

First time that the south east, besides florida, has been under severe water shortages.  Look it up, it's unprecendented.  There are towns that only run water for 3 hours a day...and this is in WINTER...supposedly the wet part af the year.  That has NEVER happened before.  Tennesee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia....

[lazs2]

moray.. sorry but you did not nor have you ever answered my question completely.

Do you think that man made co2 is causing a catastrophic warming.

I do hope you are not blaming the arson fires in kalifornia on global warming?   How many died?    How many died in one year during some of our coldest winters in this century alone?

the yellowstone fires were pretty bad.. was that man made global warming too?  If we can't even put out fires tho... how the hell we gonna change the carbon level in the entire atmosphere?

louie..  I can see we are not communicating...  We are in a warming trend.. this is good.   I believe we have probly reached the peak and we have seen a cooling in the last 7 years from that peak.   There are always spikes tho... low and high.. that is why.. in our lifetimes.. so many have said throughout time that this or that was the coldest or warmest or whatever they had ever seen... old guys around the pot bellied stove.

I believe we are going to enter a cooling trend as surely as night follows day... there is nothing we can do to stop it.

I believe we are being scammed for political and selfish reasons and that jumping in, right in the middle of a warming trend with a hand wringing "end of world" scenario is pretty cs and plays on neurotic peoples fears.  Lefties are fritghtened and neurotic by nature so this is taylor made for em.

lazs

[Louis XVII]

Originally posted by lazs2
I believe we are being scammed for political and selfish reasons and that jumping in, right in the middle of a warming trend with a hand wringing "end of world" scenario is pretty cs and plays on neurotic peoples fears.  Lefties are fritghtened and neurotic by nature so this is taylor made for em.

Someone said earlier that reality has a left leaning streak. You bang on about politicians/socialists/girly men feathering their own nests with a global warming "scam". The other side does their own scamming. You have Big Oil and the Detroit motor industry and drivers of 10mpg cars wringing their hands and believing it's the end of the world if they had to drive something that gets 18mpg or more, while people in texas are worried because that's the hub of the American oil industry. So they deny that the earth is warming and/or deny that mankind has anything to do with it, and then go cherrypicking for data to support the opinion they've already formed which has itself been formed to support a particular lifestyle or livelihood. Not very scientific, as Moray has already pointed out. Talk about frightened and neurotic!