General Climate Discussion

[bongaroo]

So first it was adamantly argued that no climate change was taking place, now its agreed it is but not caused or being helped along by man?  Don't people usually get really angry about flipfloppers in this country?

[AKIron]

So first it was adamantly argued that no climate change was taking place, now its agreed it is but not caused or being helped along by man?  Don't people usually get really angry about flipfloppers in this country?

Who argued there is no climate change? The argument has always been the cause and sometimes the specifics of the change. Calling it climate change instead of global warming is the biggest flip in the flop.

[avionix]

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Agreed.  I never said that there wasn't climate change.  I am arguing that this "science" that has been proposed where man is the ultimate culprit, should be suspect.  We know too little and our "guesses" as to past climate, to claim that we are the cause. 

[bozon]

There is climate change because climate is always changing. There seem to be some degree of increase in the global temperature in recent history, but the degree (pun intended) is debatable. The temperatures do not increase everywhere and it is very hard to define the "average" temperature. In addition, the measurements and "averaging" suffer from a significant degree of bias and systematic errors.

There are several parallel debates:
1. whether there is global warming at all
2. Assuming #1 is true, is it man made
3. Assuming #2 is true, is it the CO2 emission
The jury is still out on all three.

As for the climate models, I just discovered what a piece of crap they are - at least the atmospheric part of it that covers the "greenhouse effect". I attended a physics seminar that explained the details of the radiation transfer that goes into models currently used in the global warming predictions. It is somewhere between bad physics and no physics at all. Better calculations that solved the full radiation transfer correctly, pointing out all the mistakes of current models along the way, show that the CO2 contribution to the greenhouse effect is so tiny, that the "near ground" temperature will rise by no more than 0.1 degree even if you increase the CO2 content in the atmosphere by factor 10 than it is today. It doesn't solve the global warming argument(s), but the case for CO2 being the culprit, man made or not, is EXTREMELY week.

There is great concern in the science world that this "bad science" and "political science" (not the study of politics) will, when it collapses, bring down with it the good science as well.

[Angus]

Hehe, well made:
"There are several parallel debates:
1. whether there is global warming at all
2. Assuming #1 is true, is it man made
3. Assuming #2 is true, is it the CO2 emission
The jury is still out on all three."

I'll give you my stance on this:
1: Yes, there is.
2. Partially
3. partially partially.

[Jackal1]

So first it was adamantly argued that no climate change was taking place

Never seen that argued here. Climate has always changed in the past and always will.

[Angus]

Of course it will.
It is a theory of some here though that we're in a cooling trend. The air is cooling, the seas are cooling and the arctic ice is growing..while the SL is rising.
All interesting...all too interesting

[bongaroo]

Of course it will.
It is a theory of some here though that we're in a cooling trend. The air is cooling, the seas are cooling and the arctic ice is growing..while the SL is rising.
All interesting...all too interesting

obviously the H2O fairy is making more water for us.

My earlier comment wasn't directed at this thread, more at what I've seen argued 10 years ago before enough evidence was brought to light to show that change is happening.

[Angus]

Well, in this debate you will steadily encounter people who try to put things off track, i.e. by claiming that the change is different.
So, the discussion goes more to comfy "it's just what always happened...normal" instead of "we're having an abnormality, why is that?".
Look at Lazs inputs. It goes in and out with the reasons behind GW, such as claiming it due to increased solar energy etc, then to claiming it being "a comfortable warming, what's wrong with that", and then down to "the globe is cooling".
ARRGGGHHHH

[AKIron]

Well, in this debate you will steadily encounter people who try to put things off track, i.e. by claiming that the change is different.
So, the discussion goes more to comfy "it's just what always happened...normal" instead of "we're having an abnormality, why is that?".
Look at Lazs inputs. It goes in and out with the reasons behind GW, such as claiming it due to increased solar energy etc, then to claiming it being "a comfortable warming, what's wrong with that", and then down to "the globe is cooling".
ARRGGGHHHH

We were experiencing some warming which has been beneficial but for the last 10 years the warming trend has reversed. Kinda simple really.

[Jackal1]

Nobody is willing to admit that they bought the plastic statue and it is now useless.
Enjoy the weather and worry about real problems instead of DOOMSDAY scams.

[Angus]

I would like to know what statue that was. Did you buy one of them...dolls ? 
And Iron:
"We were experiencing some warming which has been beneficial but for the last 10 years the warming trend has reversed. Kinda simple really."

Not sure what you mean there, for the all-record ice-low record is 2007 waiting to be replaced by 2008.
Same goes with the air temp. 2007 very very hot. Hotter than 1997.
As for beneficial, that yet remains to be seen....

[AKIron]

I would like to know what statue that was. Did you buy one of them...dolls ? 
And Iron:
"We were experiencing some warming which has been beneficial but for the last 10 years the warming trend has reversed. Kinda simple really."

Not sure what you mean there, for the all-record ice-low record is 2007 waiting to be replaced by 2008.
Same goes with the air temp. 2007 very very hot. Hotter than 1997.
As for beneficial, that yet remains to be seen....

We're talking about global temperatures, not local. If you want to talk local Idaho had a very cold winter lat year. Are you unaware of the overall stability and even decline in global temps worldwide? Egg on the face of the GAW high priests it seems.

[gunnss]

What he said,

In 2006, the most snow to ever fall on Albuquerque happened, over 28 inches, this is judge whether records and they started keeping when the Spaniards came in over 400 years ago.  In 2007, we again set records in the mountains of northern New Mexico, to the point of the snowfall is crushing buildings.  Prior to 2006 that Southwest was in a drought that has lasted eight years, lakes were drying up, water table was going down, and no rain was falling.  The past two years has completely reversed that trend, to the point that we are well ahead of our annual rainfall amount this year.

I am not claiming that what happens in my backyard is the same as what happens all over the world.  But judging by what I'm seeing the majority of the world is having colder winters and shorter growing seasons.  A friend of mine in the Pacific Northwest is complaining bitterly about the late start to the growing season in the late frosts.  Almost the entire apple crop was lost this year, and the late rains flooded so many fields that many of the farmers simply will not get a crop at all.

Perhaps it would be best, to give our region are areas where we live, and simply say hotter or to say colder.

The list that I personally know about,
the Pacific Northwest, cold and wet
Utah, cold and wet
Colorado, cold and wet
Arizona New Mexico, colder and very wet
Texas and Oklahoma, about the same for temperature, but very wet


These are the places I've seen personally,

from hearsay evidence,

Central North Atlantic, warmer longer growing season
Australia, cooler wetter
Antarctic continent, colder ice cap growing
the Middle East, cooler and wetter


This is all empirical the only thing I can really vouch for his where I've been personally.  In all the places I have been in our cooler and wetter.

Just a thought,
Kevin

We're talking about global temperatures, not local. If you want to talk local Idaho had a very cold winter lat year. Are you unaware of the overall stability and even decline in global temps worldwide? Egg on the face of the GAW high priests it seems.

[Jackal1]

I would like to know what statue that was.

The plastic Al Bore statues I sell on eBay Angus.
C`mon....... we know you have one.