I'm no ACM expert, but this is what occurs to me:
Nose down throws the shot off, but only moves you in one plane. Guys who start shooting way out aren't generally even the best HOers, so it seems to me that adding a second plane of maneuver would very likely be enough to throw his aim completely off for the initial, most dangerous merge. By changing the flight path continuously, he has to continuously readjust the lead even more than I would (cause he has to point AHEAD of me to get a hit), burning E all the while. And, by doing a lead turn before the merge, I'm going to be set up to get out of there much easier.
I might have nosed down, then giving just enough time for him to react to the first move roll a bit and pull up into a flattish yo yo or wing over. Assuming the miss, the *plan* after that would be to roll into an off angle egress, to force him to yank the stick around and burn some of that E while letting me stay straight, nose down, wep on, and both pick up speed and range as he sets up a tail chase.
Had a problem similar to that last week when I joined an aggressive squaddie who was engaged low and slow on the deck 1v3 before I got there. He's much more willing to die to get the one kill than I am, so when we broke free of the scrum briefly he went right back in...and it was now a 1v2.
I was in P51D and was against Spixteen and Lala, with me having a very small energy advantage. The long and the short of it is that I used energy conservation as best I could while moderately trying to get a shot on one or the other, but also looking for the chance to break free. (We were a bit out of the way, but way closer to their base than to ours.) The other two were yanking sticks all over the sky trying for immediate shots, which meant that when I topped out on a barrel roll and saw the hole I was able to complete the rollout with a separating dive.
And the net effect was that within 15 seconds I was 1.0 out, and by a minute I was 1.5 and extending. The other two are much better accelerators, but had to go from a standing start.
The point being, of course, that using angles and energy conservation while forcing the enemy to use up both can translate into major tactical advantage.