Originally posted by Arlo
One may conclude based on presumption that they have weapons grade fissionable material regarding the circumstantial evidence you've highlighted. It's a further stretch, though, to conclude they have ICBM technology advanced enough to launch a warhead past a nation on their border (as Tango seems to fear).
A couple of years is some breathing room .... unless someone is just eager to invade .... for ulterior motive. And since the biggest threat is to countries next to Iran it makes perfect sense to get those neighboring countries to join in applying political and economic pressure to deter Iran from making a crucial mistake regarding it's own survival. One relatively archaic nuclear "scud" launched from it would earn instant reprisal on a grander scale. Cooperation in avoiding such a stupid agenda may well yeild an economic and technological boon (versus a radioctive boom).
Another invasion and occupation based on questionable intel that further alienates international allies, stretches military logistics and impacts readiness (without taking preemptive measures to lessen the impact) based on ..... nothing but suspician ..... does not a brilliant move for the GWOT cause make.
I'd say that if they had one bomb/missile, they would save it for a rainy day(unstoppable U.S. invasion?) and use it as a tactical weapon of last resort.
Also, if they gave the bomb to a terrorist organization like Al-Queda, I doubt that a missile would go with it. The terrorist delivery device would be more stealthy and subtle, like...an 18-wheeler out of Mexico, or something.
Of course, with a cessation of the Iranian weapons' program, it's a non-issue, isn't it? If they complied with U.S. and international demands, then the deal's done.
