WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION

[Gunslinger]

what really pisses me off is sensationalism.  The media loves sensational words because it attracts the attention of the sheeple that love to repeat them.  I just heard zetanine in another thread say "we are in a recession". 

A RECESSION IS DEFINED AS TWO CONSECTUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GROWTH.


we have not had that.  We are probably going to have that in the near future......HOWEVER IT HASNT HAPPENED YET!

GAWD this pisses me off....this whole sky is falling mentality that some of the sheep of today have!

[angelsandair]

Yep...

Let us be confused.

[Baitman]

We may not be in one right now but we are heading quickly towards one. The only thing we can do is try and soften the bottom. We can not print (money) our way out of this one. The US is importing more than exporting, this means we are sending money offshore rather than bringing money in. It is going to happen and the more the Government prints money to save banks the faster and harder the collapse will be.

[Baitman]

If we aren't in a recession then one is right around the corner Maybe the boogy man too... How many more huge mortgage companies will fail before this is unstoppable.

Friday, July 11, 2008



IndyMac Bancorp Is Seized


It's all over for IndyMac. IndyMac Bancorp Is Seized By Federal Regulators.


IndyMac Bancorp Inc. became the second-biggest federally insured financial company to fail today after a run by depositors left the California mortgage lender short on cash.

The Pasadena, California-based bank specialized in so-called Alt-A mortgages, which didn't require borrowers to provide documentation on their incomes. Its home state has been among the hardest hit by foreclosures.

"Given their focus on Alt-A and a heavy concentration in California, they would have suffered meaningful losses in almost any scenario," Brian Horey, president of Aurelian Management LLC in New York, said before the seizure was announced. Aurelian is short-selling IndyMac shares to gain from declines.

IndyMac becomes the largest OTS-regulated savings and loan to fail and second-biggest financial institution to close behind Continental Illinois in 1984, according to the FDIC.

Liar Loans At Heart Of The Matter

Anyone over the FDIC limit at IndyMac can kiss it goodbye. There has been ample warning. Alt-A loans (AKA Liar Loans) and ridiculous lending policies did this company in.

Wachovia (WB) and Washington Mutual (WM) are both heavily at risk over Alt-A . It is debatable either survives. I talked about Alt-A loans recently in Fannie and Freddie Waterfalls Are Too Big to Bail. Inquiring minds will want to take a look.

We are very close to the point where any bank can fail at any time. If you are over the FDIC limit at Wachovia or Washington Mutual (or for that matter anywhere), do something about it immediately if not sooner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



It is only going to get worse and where is the money going to come from to bail out these people.... Print it.... drive the dollar down.

[Baitman]

Here is the mother of all bail outs

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/roubini-restructure-fannie-freddie-debt.html

[Stoney]

The US is importing more than exporting, this means we are sending money offshore rather than bringing money in.

Explain this statement?  Most developed countries with strong economies run persistent trade deficits.  U.S., U.K., Australia--all run trade deficits, and last I looked, those economies were among the strongest in the world.

Do a Google search for Monetarism... 

[WMLute]

what really pisses me off is sensationalism.  The media loves sensational words because it attracts the attention of the sheeple that love to repeat them.  I just heard zetanine in another thread say "we are in a recession". 

A RECESSION IS DEFINED AS TWO CONSECTUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GROWTH.

Spot on sir.

I've been saying this exact thing for many months now.

[crockett]

Explain this statement?  Most developed countries with strong economies run persistent trade deficits.  U.S., U.K., Australia--all run trade deficits, and last I looked, those economies were among the strongest in the world.

Do a Google search for Monetarism... 

You can't just look at one factor and claim it means we have a strong economy. If you can't look at all the crap that is going on and understand our country economy is in trouble then you have some serious blinders on.

The dollar is at and all time low
We have a record Trade Deficit
We have a record National Debit
High paying Jobs are on a decline
We have mortgage companies and banks who have failed or are close to failing.
We have a nation wide house market that has plummeted in most places.

Add those all together and our economy has a very grim outlook.

[wrag]

Here is an opinion..............

http://mensnewsdaily.com/2008/07/12/international-forecaster-the-meltdown-is-a-lock/

Seems to be saying we were set up for it?

[SD67]

That would not surprise me in the least.
Who would be enemy#1 if a new world war should erupt?
Who has systematically taken the bulk of your manufacturing capacity away from you and made you dependant upon them?
How confident are you that you could recover that base quickly enough to prevent them from gaining a massive advantage over you if the worst happened?

[myelo]

A RECESSION IS DEFINED AS TWO CONSECTUTIVE QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GROWTH.

Not by economists. That's an overly simplified definition.

The National Bureau of Economic Research determines when recession occur. They define a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. In other words, they only determine recessions retrospectively.

Most official recessions have had two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. That's because they use more indicators than just GDP and they consider the depth of the downturn, not just the duration.

[Hap]

Just spent $20 at grocery store to buy what used to cost about $12 not long ago.  OK, we're not in a recession.

[Curval]

I plan on snapping up some very cheap real estate stocks and property within a year or so.

It's all good as long as there are no negative consequences for me personally.

Boy...now I'm starting to sound a bit like lazs.

[lazs2]

sheesh.. you guys love to drive yourselves into depression around here don't you?   The news gleefully predicts a new disaster every week or so and you eat it up..   the end is nigh!

buncha buffoons.   What is so attractive to you guys about getting yourselves all worked up about this or that disaster?

The sun is gonna explode! 

You guys ought to seriously consider not watching the news.

curval..  I think you have me wrong.   I simply don't panic about silly crap. Plenty of real stuff happens in our life to worry about without manufacturing it or letting people upset us over nothing.   Global warming.. no one knows... so far it is not just lazs who is not hurt..  no one is frigging being hurt.. not even fuzzy little polar bears.. it has been good for everyone.

housing collapse..  no one is losing their home unless they were total idiots or were speculator shysters.

lazs

[Curval]

So the *joe* sitting in...Germany....watching his life savings getting squandered due to to bunch of buffons who propped up the world economy with false goods is a total idiot or shyster?

You aren't seeing further than your own back yard for consequences, which isn't suprising.  In fact it makes my point for me.