WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION

[drdeathx]

Few times??? There have been more than a few recessions in 47 years. Everyone is "FREAKING OUT" in the economic downturn. We should be fine. The dollar is still strong overseas which points to a positive direction. A lot of investors went overseas and bet the dollar would become weak and lost the crapshoot. They lost a lot of money. When the water is level which should be soon, the economy will improve! Market will be above 10,000 before 4th quarter 2009.

[DREDIOCK]

Few times??? There have been more than a few recessions in 47 years. Everyone is "FREAKING OUT" in the economic downturn. We should be fine. The dollar is still strong overseas which points to a positive direction. A lot of investors went overseas and bet the dollar would become weak and lost the crapshoot. They lost a lot of money. When the water is level which should be soon, the economy will improve! Market will be above 10,000 before 4th quarter 2009.

It was a rhetorical statement.
and I very well know it will eventually turn around again.
Yanno what though.
Not everyone of us can afford for it to take till the 4th quarter of 09.

Maybe your in a position that you can afford to be optimistic.
Im not.
Im sure alot of other people out there arent either.

Maybe your not one of the ones that has had to tell their little girl "dont count on a Christmas this year, ANY Christmas"
I have. Because for me (and alot of other people) that might just happen.
and if it doesnt. It is going to be the most meager Holiday season I've ever experienced in 47 years.
I've only experienced one other time its been this bad.
But fortunately then it was late winter and I only had myself to think about.

Maybe for you this hasnt been a recession.
But for me might as well be called one because its had the same effect as one since the end of July.
And its only gotten much worse.
Even people with money.Who are my usual clients, are hoarding their money.

I hear Retail is expecting a 10% drop in sales this year.
And they label that as "devastating." (Or so I've heard on the radio)
A simple 10% drop would be a godsend for small independent contractors.
Mine is down already 50%. And the next month looks worse. And in fact would be already if it werent for sheer luck on one job thats going to last all of about a week.
So far I've been one of the lucky ones.
I already know of a few that have gone under.
And many more who are in the same position as I.
If this market finds its bottom soon. Hopefully some people will recognise the opportinuties there are to save money right now with people like me.
(You are NEVER going to get home improvement work done cheaper then you can right now)
And I may just be able to hold on by a pubic hair..But just.
If not. Then I may literally loose everything.
Just like alot of other people who are "Freaking out."

But at least I know a trade.
How many people are going to loose their jobs. and outside of the little cubicle they are used to.
Dont know how to do anything else.
Many of them too will loose EVERYTHING.
Not hard to understand why people might be freaking out.

Course if you arent one of us. You wouldnt understand.

[Curval]

Few times??? There have been more than a few recessions in 47 years. Everyone is "FREAKING OUT" in the economic downturn. We should be fine. The dollar is still strong overseas which points to a positive direction. A lot of investors went overseas and bet the dollar would become weak and lost the crapshoot. They lost a lot of money. When the water is level which should be soon, the economy will improve! Market will be above 10,000 before 4th quarter 2009.

You have an oversimplistic understanding of the economy.

The only reason the dollar is strong right now is because the other currencies have been hammered.  It isn't because the US is in great shape I assure you.

Gas is cheap now because of lower demand not because everything is fine.

I hope your prediction is correct but somehow I doubt it.

[Nwbie]

Recession my &&&&

this is going to be a depression

And yeah - i blame booooosh

[kamilyun]

Well,

It appears we have been in a recession

And, it was well underway at the time of the original post according to the NBER. 

[Eagler]

And yeah - i blame booooosh

of course you do - don't blame those who were actually tasked with the oversight .....

[ColSuave]

Few times??? There have been more than a few recessions in 47 years. Everyone is "FREAKING OUT" in the economic downturn. We should be fine. The dollar is still strong overseas which points to a positive direction. A lot of investors went overseas and bet the dollar would become weak and lost the crapshoot. They lost a lot of money. When the water is level which should be soon, the economy will improve! Market will be above 10,000 before 4th quarter 2009.

everyone is freaking out for a good reason. my dad works for a company that supplies parts for dodge and GM, who are laying off A LOT of people right now, and guess what, my dads head is on the chopping block. my mom already got layed off from her job. And if that happens not only do we not get the holidays, but we dont have a house either or cars or anything. we are poor enough right now and are struggling to support the basic lifestyle we do now. The only reason i play this game is because i HAD a job of my own until a couple of weeks ago. My family isnt the only one in this situation. Oh... it will be better in the 4th wuarter of 2009.. mmm that is great and all but what about next month.

[KgB]

Yes Bush is to blame for recession just like CO2 is to blame for rising temperatures. 

Yes Challenge I'm pretty sure 6.5 trillion dollars wasted by Bush's administration have nothing to do with it

[Eagler]

Yes Challenge I'm pretty sure 6.5 trillion dollars wasted by Bush's administration have nothing to do with it

actually it doesn't

[DREDIOCK]

Yes Challenge I'm pretty sure 6.5 trillion dollars wasted by Bush's administration have nothing to do with it

And exactly what DID it have to do with it?

Show the connection.

I can draw a much more direct line right to congress within two links
1 link to draw the line. the second to show all involved

Hint. each has been posted here before
And neither is from a right leaning site.

[MORAY37]

Pretty much cracked me up when I saw the announcement today....if it wasn't so sobering.

"Oh... By the way... we've been in a recession since fourth quarter 2007."

Then to go back, on here, and see all the ridicule some people got for posting that very same assessment.  This thread was started 8 months after we were already in a recession, in July of 2008, which was followed by many vitriolic posts downplaying poster's intelligence, many by Gunslinger himself.... as well as his following of merry tardlets.

<S> Gunslinger, for proving how smart you really are.  :aok  I for one wish you had been right, but obviously you were not.

[drdeathx]

Moray....Read the definition. This is interpretation. 2 consec quarters of neg GDP

[Newman5]

Whoops!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?cnn=yes

[kamilyun]

Moray....Read the definition. This is interpretation. 2 consec quarters of neg GDP

From Wikipedia:

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle, or "a period of reduced economic activity."[1][2] The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession more specifically as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[3]

Some business & investment glossaries add to the general definition a rule of thumb that recessions are often indicated by two consecutive quarters of negative growth (or contraction) of gross domestic product (GDP).[4][5]

--------------

I'll let the real economists decide.  And NBER made the call.

[DREDIOCK]

Whoops!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?cnn=yes

the most relevant part of that article

"The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures.

The NBER said that the deterioration in the labor market throughout 2008 was one key reason why it decided to state that the recession began last year.

Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year. On Friday, economists are predicting the government will report a loss of another 325,000 jobs for November.

The NBER also looks at real personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales. All those measures reached a peak between November 2007 and June 2008, the NBER said.

In addition, the NBER also considers the gross domestic product, which is the reading most typically associated with a recession in the general public.

Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession"