So what do you oil dependant people think about this?

[bustr]

When he hangs himself in the town square with a sign saying:

 "I have the moral strength to do my part!"

I might consider listening to him except his presentation shows his self admiration and contempt for the unwashed masses who is anyone that cannot dialouge in mathmatics at the base level he would pass you in his class. He presents himslef as being more worthy to survive by virtue that he is giving the lecture.

Based on his criterea, I will venture only those with the brains to vote for obama the messiah are worthy to live in his ideology.

[Baitman]

Here it is in simple math 
World Oil Reserves = 1,317.447 billion barrels / information from the  US DOE
WOR = 1,317,447 million barrels
World Oil Production = 80+- million barrels per day / from the US CIA

Time left to end of production (keeping use constant and no more huge discoveies)(China has seen huge increase of oil use in the last 5 years likewise so has India)

(1,317,447/80)/365= 45.118 years

At the rate of use today we will be out of oil in 45+- years. This may not happen but 20 - 25 years from now there could be great shortages

[2bighorn]

I might consider listening to him except his presentation shows his self admiration and contempt for the unwashed masses who is anyone that cannot dialouge in mathmatics at the base level he would pass you in his class. He presents himslef as being more worthy to survive by virtue that he is giving the lecture.

I didn't see it that way. Looks more like some of your issues are skewing your perception. He is just putting some numbers, which many are throwing around, into perspective.

Chinese had to put brakes on population growth and they succeeded without mass killings (for the most part). If we as a nation are superior, as many here would claim, we can tackle that problem easily.

[storch]

except that those are estimated reserves.  in fact no one knows what the reserves really are, they guess at stuff like that.  what really boggles my mind is how arrogant some of us truly are.  if we take the common opinion that the earth is three billion years old ( I don't believe it but I'll play along) and that man has been here 200,000 years we are talking about a fairly insignificant period of time.  consider also that every person who has ever lived plus all of us currently living can comfortably stand in duval county florida results in the fact that we aren't really taking up so much space.  if the industrial revolution is not quite 200 years in progress I think it is pretty arrogant of us to think our species is doing any real long term harm to the planet.  I think the planet has seen far worse than what man has done or will ever do.  silly chicken littles.  but please by all means keep posting these gems they are worth much in the way of comedy.

[2bighorn]

in fact no one knows what the reserves really are, they guess at stuff like that.

Smarty, tell me, of what use are oil reserves which we don't know about?

[bustr]

I read the transcript. He is not ready to die. His tone is condencention that the rest of the world is blind to what is simple to him.

China controled population by putting people in jail for hiding extra children and forcing abortions on women. China now has an imbalance of males to females which is more of the reason their population has slowed it's growth. Chinese families want male children fro economic success. Most of china is rural and agrarian. Agrarian cultures breed like rabbits to cover deaths, have hands to work the feilds and as old age support policies.

As china follows western trends in modernising, it's educated women will stop making babies and embrace feminism. India is begining to see a similare trend in educated women. Education + feminism = population decline.

As Laz pointed out pure math don't cover things like the impact of educating women and birth rate declines as a response.

[Bodhi]

I am at work so I can not read the entirety of this professor's dialogue, but:

Does his exponential math take into account mass starvation due to current energy costs, global plagues, or a third global war?   My bet is one of the above I have mentioned will happen long before we run out of resources.

Lastly, what would our world population be right now had the black death not swept through the old world in the 1100's.   

[33Vortex]

except that those are estimated reserves.  in fact no one knows what the reserves really are, they guess at stuff like that.  what really boggles my mind is how arrogant some of us truly are.  if we take the common opinion that the earth is three billion years old ( I don't believe it but I'll play along) and that man has been here 200,000 years we are talking about a fairly insignificant period of time.  consider also that every person who has ever lived plus all of us currently living can comfortably stand in duval county florida results in the fact that we aren't really taking up so much space.  if the industrial revolution is not quite 200 years in progress I think it is pretty arrogant of us to think our species is doing any real long term harm to the planet.  I think the planet has seen far worse than what man has done or will ever do.  silly chicken littles.  but please by all means keep posting these gems they are worth much in the way of comedy.

We are not doing any harm to the planet whatsoever. We are only hurting ourselves, the planet can continue to live without us, it's in no way dependant on us or our well-being. However, we are totally dependant on this planet.

We will never run out of oil, that's a fact. Oil can be produced in many ways. Another fact is that oil will become very expensive. Perhaps much sooner than we think, nobody really knows when but it will happen. When that happens (difficult or impossible to determine exactly at which point) people like you and I will not afford a car. It could potentially crash the entire economic system, causing mass unemployment and loss in production. Lack of food, famine, disease, you name it.

The only way we have currently at hand, to limit or perhaps even nullify the effects of these facts, is to transfer to a sustainable way of life. Not for the well being of the planet, but for our own well being. The planet doesn't give a **** about us.

[Baitman]

We are not doing any harm to the planet whatsoever. We are only hurting ourselves, the planet can continue to live without us, it's in no way dependant on us or our well-being. However, we are totally dependant on this planet.

We will never run out of oil, that's a fact. Oil can be produced in many ways. Another fact is that oil will become very expensive. Perhaps much sooner than we think, nobody really knows when but it will happen. When that happens (difficult or impossible to determine exactly at which point) people like you and I will not afford a car. It could potentially crash the entire economic system, causing mass unemployment and loss in production. Lack of food, famine, disease, you name it.

The only way we have currently at hand, to limit or perhaps even nullify the effects of these facts, is to transfer to a sustainable way of life. Not for the well being of the planet, but for our own well being. The planet doesn't give a **** about us.

deja vu

[2bighorn]

I read the transcript. He is not ready to die. His tone is condencention that the rest of the world is blind to what is simple to him.

Just watch the videos, you're missing a lot with the transcript.

China controled population by putting people in jail for hiding extra children and forcing abortions on women. China now has an imbalance of males to females which is more of the reason their population has slowed it's growth. Chinese families want male children fro economic success. Most of china is rural and agrarian. Agrarian cultures breed like rabbits to cover deaths, have hands to work the feilds and as old age support policies.

Chinese population control is indeed controversial, but nobody can deny it hasn't been successful. Depends which study you look at, the policy reduces net growth anywhere from 50 to 300 million people per year. Policy has been in place since 1979. If we take the lowest number, that's still whooping 1.4 billion people.

Do you think that China's resources could successfully support such population increase without disastrous effect to their economy and environment?

As china follows western trends in modernising, it's educated women will stop making babies and embrace feminism. India is begining to see a similare trend in educated women. Education + feminism = population decline.

In terms of resources, that's just shifting from one end to another. Modernization means consumption increase = higher energy demand per capita.

As Laz pointed out pure math don't cover things like the impact of educating women and birth rate declines as a response.

How does it not?

[2bighorn]

Does his exponential math take into account mass starvation due to current energy costs, global plagues, or a third global war?   My bet is one of the above I have mentioned will happen long before we run out of resources.

Bodhi, all the man does is showing how the math is often misused and misunderstood, when applied inside other science fields, media and politics and possible resulting errors in predicting and planning the future.

The only opinion or advice he gave to the students is to think about those numbers and what they mean at the times.

[bustr]

All praise BigHorn because he will save us by unlocking the secret of the cashmere effect and unlimited energy from quantum foam and ZPE. Untill then BH the malthusian answer you and that math Phd seem unable to blurt out is start steralising 7% of babies world wide every 7 months for the next 70 years.........or substitute uthinise for steralise. Margret Sanger has bigger balls, she wrote a whole essay on the subject. It got lotsa play in europe in the 20's and 30's.

I don't see you or the Math Phd volinteering though......I'm holding out for the cashmere effect. It will get us off the planet if the feminists dont make men with backbones extinct by then.

Well then does anyone on this board wanna sign up to do the right thing in the town square? I'll supply the rope......guess we all see ourselves in the Math phd's position of being too important. But then by Margret Sangers standards our ability to dialoge this conversation makes us worthy to live and breed......

Soooo...BigHorn who do we throw out the door to lighten mothership earth then?

[moot]

Bustr BH is just pointing out that (from what it sounds like to me, I can't be arsed to look at the transcript) the professor is making a math/statistics point without implying anything by it.
Here:

He is repeating Thomas Malthus via a math lecture without saying point blank that some of us lesser peons haven't been deing on schedual because of the benifits of modern technology. We don't have world wars, epidemics or world famins anymore so we breed like bunnies. And the majority of us bunnies are not Phd material so we are just taking up space.

I hear this from Ivory Tower Liberals and the young idealists who carry their water every few years. You notice after identifying the problem he is neither volintering to commit suicide nor suggest a solution. Mostly the veild condensention towords how stupid most of us are.

I agree with TMalthus, if that's what he said.  I don't see how it HAS to lead to the rest of what you describe in your post.  I completely agree that the world population growth is outpacing its contribution to tech/sci/art (the latter to a lesser degree imo) progress.  It's like so many brains born and dead while consuming so much, without giving human progress their contributive little push.
If they did, we probably wouldn't have to worry as much about resources consumption (incl overcrowding).

[2bighorn]

All praise BigHorn because he will save us by unlocking the secret of the cashmere effect and unlimited energy from quantum foam and ZPE. Untill then BH the malthusian answer you and that math Phd seem unable to blurt out is start steralising 7% of babies world wide every 7 months for the next 70 years.........or substitute uthinise for steralise. Margret Sanger has bigger balls, she wrote a whole essay on the subject. It got lotsa play in europe in the 20's and 30's.

I don't see you or the Math Phd volinteering though......I'm holding out for the cashmere effect. It will get us off the planet if the feminists dont make men with backbones extinct by then.

Well then does anyone on this board wanna sign up to do the right thing in the town square? I'll supply the rope......guess we all see ourselves in the Math phd's position of being too important. But then by Margret Sangers standards our ability to dialoge this conversation makes us worthy to live and breed......

Soooo...BigHorn who do we throw out the door to lighten mothership earth then?

Ah come on, now you're being melodramatic.

When couple decides not to have more children, because their economic situation wouldn't allow proper care,  it is matter of common sense and not eugenics.

When gas prices skyrocket due to oil supply and demand issues, it is common sense to have more efficient cars no matter how big (or small) oil reserves are.

When some professor gives a lecture on how math is (mis)used, he is not predicting end of the world nor he's making suggestion to kill off half the world population. It's just something for the students to think about.


On the other side, when fast breeding bunnies have no sense whatsoever, probably somebody else will have to decide what's good for them...

[storch]

Smarty, tell me, of what use are oil reserves which we don't know about?

think things through lad, by anyone's figures there is enough oil readily available for between the coming 50-150 years.

now are we sitting idly by waiting for impending doom as we consume our way to the planet's core?  most likely not.  that is to say that there are cadre of people working on solving these potential problems.  

let's not bother discussing the massive coal reserves which by any measure far outweigh petroleum reserves and that coal could be utilized as a viable liquid fuel.  

lord forbid that we generate all electicity globally from nuclear fission and continue solving nuclear fusion as an energy source.  lastly by anyone's reckoning we are due for another viral pandemic.  as I'm sure a well read person like yourself knows the last one killed more people globally in 1918 than four years of european war did.  the combination of the two claiming some 200,000,000 fellow planetary inhabitants.

as I have stated often enough the planet is well able to shrug off the effects of humainty we ain't all that and a bag of chips.