Minor increase? Do you have any idea how much untapped oil the US has?
Yes. I also don't confuse
oil and shale.
Fact is some of the untapped oil could be had in *TWO * (not 5) years.
Source? The facts are the oil industry is working flat out at the moment. All these little fields take a lot of resources to develop. It ain't happening in 2 years.
A shift in United States policy that it was going be committed to drilling this oil now would affect the price of oil immediately, as that price is being affected by futures not immediate supply.
No, it's current supply. In fact, futures prices are usually
lower than spot prices. Last time I checked (a few weeks ago) oil for summer 2010 delivery was about $1 a barrel less than the spot price.
So you are completely wrong. A shift in policy would affect oil prices immediately.
Source?
Here's what the government task force report in to oil prices concluded a couple of days ago:
The Task Force’s preliminary assessment is that current oil prices and the increase in oil prices between
January 2003 and June 2008 are largely due to fundamental supply and demand factors.
The world economy has expanded at its fastest pace in decades, and that strong growth has translated into
substantial increases in the demand for oil, particularly from emerging market countries. On the supply
side, the production of oil has responded sluggishly, compounded by production shortfalls associated with
geopolitical unrest in countries with large oil reserves. As it is very difficult to rely on substitutes for oil in
the short term, very large price increases have occurred as the market balances supply and demand.
There's one reason why oil prices are high:

Edit: from theoildrum.com , but the image is originally from the task force report.
Increased production in the future won't affect prices until that gap between economic growth and oil production growth closes.