Just an update that got emailed to me.
From: Whited Julia D
Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 1:06 PM
To: &AP_Houston
Subject: Hurricane Ike, 11am Wednesday
My brother-in-law works for Oklahoma Climatological and Meteorology Society. He is also Assistant Dean of Oklahoma University School of Meteorology specializing in Severe weather. Here is his take on Hurricane Ike and what we can expect....
Hello Everyone!!!
I apologize for the mass email, but I thought I would try to put Hurricane Ike into perspective for many of you that should probably be leaving the Texas Coastal Plains tomorrow!
Tomorrow (9/11) is an anniversary of a major disaster, but not the one that you will see on CNN, etc.
On Sept 11, 1961, Hurricane Carla roared ashore between Port Lavaca and Port O'Connor as a Cat 4 hurricane.
Here are some Carla specifics that I will use for comparison.
At landfall, Carla's sustained winds measured at Matagorda Bay were 120 mph
Gusts were estimated as high as 170mph. Landfall Pressure was 931mb
Carla resulted in 110mph sustained winds in Victoria, 90mph sustained winds in Galveston, 70mph sustained winds were reported at inland locations such as San Antonio and Austin, and 50mph winds were
reported as far north as Dallas as the storm carved its way up the I35 corridor. Damage was reported as far north as Oklahoma City.
Carla was also a prolific tornado producer (26 of them) and 43 people died during this storm.
Over the past 50 years, Hurricane Ike is the storm that most closely resembles Hurricane Carla.
Ike's track will be similar (although maybe slightly south), the size of the storm will be similar, and the intensity could also be similar. Given the proximity of a cold front that is expected to be north of
Ike (adding some wind shear), tornadoes will also be a threat.
Here is the timeline as best I can tell. I will update this as conditions warrant.
By noon on Friday, coastal locations from Corpus Christi to Galveston should be feeling tropical storm force gusts of at least 40mph (potentially sustained tropical storm force winds if Ike is a Cat 4 at this time)
Inland locations from Victoria, El Campo to Angleton will start feeling the effects in the early afternoon hours on Friday.
By 6pm on Friday, coastal locations from Corpus Christi to Freeport could be experiencing gusts to hurricane force (74 mph).
By midnight Friday night/Saturday morning, the central Texas coast will be seeing winds near 100mph with higher gusts.
Inland locations from Victoria to El Campo to Angleton could be experiencing hurricane force winds, with tropical storm force winds extending into Houston.
The minimum central pressure at this time could be as low as 935mb (remember, Carla was 931mb).
The eye should come ashore between midnight and 6am Saturday morning near Seadrift.
That places Victoria in the eye wall by mid-morning on Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 100mph
Hurricane force gusts could be experienced as far inland past Hallettsville to as far north as I-10 by this time.
By noon on Saturday, a weakening Ike should be located south of San Antonio, but the entire Texas coastal plains south of I-10 should still be experiencing hurricane force gusts, especially along the coast.
This means that some locations from Victoria to El Campo to Lake Jackson could experience sustained tropical storm winds, becoming hurricane force, then back to tropical storm force for approximately
18 hours. Not to mention the tornado threat that will persist from Friday afternoon through the day on Saturday. By this time, Austin should also be feeling the effects of tropical storm force gusts.
Folks, to have wind clobbering your house for 18 hours straight is as difficult on you as it is on the house. That is a tremendous amount of stress, both physically, and mentally. It's not worth the toll it
will take on you to stay in these areas.
Hurricane force gusts could be experienced in Austin between noon and 6pm on Saturday as the storm cruises up I-35 with Austin potentially taking a direct hit. I probably should mention the flood risk at this
point. The models put out over a foot of rain in the Austin area on Saturday. Toss in high winds on wet ground and there will be some very large trees that will come down across Central Texas.
Winds should start to subside from Victoria to Galveston at this time.
By the way, did you know that the wind loading stress failure limit on the "Godzillatron" scoreboard in the south end zone at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is only 90mph? (The UT Athletic Dept had not considered this potential safety risk until a dedicated UT alum working at OU brought it up in a conference
call. Their response? "Wow, we never even thought of that thing blowing in and crushing the south bleachers.")
By midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning, the storm will be slowly moving northward through the Texas Hill Country. Conditions should improve for damage assessment along the coast by noon on Sunday.
Conditions in Austin may not improve until after noon on Sunday.
I realize this is a lot of detail for a 3-day forecast, and to be honest, we just aren't very good at hurricane forecasting. (Of course that never stops any of us from trying to do it anyway!)
I will try to update this email as conditions warrant.
My advice? I would recommend moving inland! I would suggest Houston for the eastern folks, and Austin for everyone else (although Austin stands to take a very severe hit and could also be without power for a while.) Dont panic! But, go to the grocery store today. And don't buy frozen foods!!
Plan for power to be out in many places starting on Friday down near the coast, and maybe by Saturday and through the weekend in Austin.
