Author Topic: Math/Economics psychology  (Read 741 times)

Offline Anaxogoras

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 7072
Math/Economics psychology
« on: May 14, 2009, 10:29:51 AM »
I give you $1000.  Then I give you a choice: we flip a coin for a chance at an extra $1000, or I just give you an extra $500.  Which do you choose?

I give you $1000, but, since I'm not nice, I give you another choice: we flip a coin to decide whether I take it all away, or you just give me $500.  Which do you choose?
gavagai
334th FS


RPS for Aces High!

Offline Marauding Conan

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 140
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2009, 10:32:40 AM »
They have a saying a South America which is roughly translated as "It is better to have a bird on your hand than 100 flying". I am not sure where it is from, but I haerd it in Venezuela many a years ago. So, if you give me $1,000.00. I would thank you for it. No point on taking a chance on loosing part of it.

Offline trigger2

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1342
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2009, 11:57:42 AM »
They have a saying a South America which is roughly translated as "It is better to have a bird on your hand than 100 flying". I am not sure where it is from, but I haerd it in Venezuela many a years ago. So, if you give me $1,000.00. I would thank you for it. No point on taking a chance on loosing part of it.

I agree with that one.
No need to get selfish, $1,000 gets me 66 1/3 months of AH! :D
Sometimes, we just need to remember what the rules of life really are: You only
need two tools: WD-40 and Duct Tape. If it doesn't move and should, use the
WD-40. If it shouldn't move and does, use the duct tape.
*TAs Aerofighters Inc.*

Offline Tordon22

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1607
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2009, 12:43:08 PM »
Heh, this problem is working as intended :) .

Personally, I'd gamble for the big money in scenario 1 and gamble for keeping the most in scenario 2.

The "expected values" for both options in both games are the same.

-Zap

Offline Curval

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 11572
      • http://n/a
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2009, 12:52:00 PM »
I say no thanks to each offer of a coin toss.

Question 1...I get $1,500
Question 2...I get $1,000

Some will fall in love with life and drink it from a fountain that is pouring like an avalanche coming down the mountain

Offline moot

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 16333
      • http://www.dasmuppets.com
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2009, 12:53:16 PM »
Separate or sequential scenarios?
Hello ant
running very fast
I squish you

Offline Tordon22

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1607
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2009, 12:53:58 PM »
I'd go with separate

Offline moot

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 16333
      • http://www.dasmuppets.com
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2009, 12:58:42 PM »
If I read it right:
1- 1000 and 500 extra.
2- 1000 and (assuming you can't opt out of the next choice) I flip a coin if the scenarios are sequential, or just give you 500 if they're separate.  If I can opt out of the choice, I just take the 1000 and walk away.
Hello ant
running very fast
I squish you

Offline Dragon

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 7055
      • AH JUGS
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2009, 12:59:07 PM »
You show up with 2,000 to part with and I'd be walking away with all of it.  :devil


SWchef  Lieutenant Colonel  Squadron Training Officer  125th Spartan Warriors

Offline Tordon22

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1607
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2009, 01:08:47 PM »
I think it's more interesting if instead of 500 dollars that you just give or recieve in 1 & 2, it's 375.  Would that change any answers?


-Zap

Offline Anaxogoras

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 7072
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2009, 02:33:38 PM »
Separate scenarios.
gavagai
334th FS


RPS for Aces High!

Offline Curval

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 11572
      • http://n/a
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2009, 04:45:00 PM »
I think you can't opt out of the second choice.  You have to decide if you just want to give up $500 or risk the grand on a coin toss.  Makes for a more interesting dilema.

I'm undecided.

Now...I'm thinking about it.

...way too much.

I hate you!

Stop staring at me!

Arrrgghhhhhhhh
Some will fall in love with life and drink it from a fountain that is pouring like an avalanche coming down the mountain

Offline crazyivan

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3920
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2009, 05:40:39 PM »
1. why gamble? im fine with 1500

2. I'd like to see you take 500 dollars out of my hand. :rofl
POTW
"Atleast I have chicken!"- Leroy Jenkins

Offline moot

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 16333
      • http://www.dasmuppets.com
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2009, 05:57:22 PM »
Heh, this problem is working as intended :) .

Personally, I'd gamble for the big money in scenario 1 and gamble for keeping the most in scenario 2.

The "expected values" for both options in both games are the same.

-Zap
It must be badly phrased because they don't seem to be the same thing.  
I give you $1000.  Then I give you a choice: we flip a coin for a chance at an extra $1000, or I just give you an extra $500.  Which do you choose?

I give you $1000, but, since I'm not nice, I then give you another choice: we flip a coin to decide whether I take it all away, or you just give me $500.  Which do you choose?
Is that what it's supposed to mean?

If not,
1- You're given 1000, no conditions. Then given a choice for either a 50/50 chance at 1000 extra, or 500 no conditions.  So here it's 1000+(1000 or 0; or 500). A choice between a scenario leading to either 1000 or 2000, and another that leads to 1500.
2- You're given 1000, then given a choice for either a 50/50 chance at -1000, or -500.  Here it's 1000+(0 or -1000; or -500).  So the choice is between a scenario that gambles equally between 0 or 1000, and another that leads to 500 everytime.

So the two situations are apples and oranges, the way I understand them. The way I see it, you've got money magically without any working for it.  An extra 50% in the first one is enough to outweigh risking 50% on top of the first sum for the possibility of 33% more than what you get with the no-conditions choice.  In the second scenario, again money out of thin air with a choice between either a 50/50 chance at 100% of the sum, or a no-conditions choice for 50% of the sum.  It'd depend on the circumstances, but in the abstract I'd take the guaranteed 50% choice unless the sum was negligible enough.
Hello ant
running very fast
I squish you

Offline FYB

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1074
Re: Math/Economics psychology
« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2009, 06:00:16 PM »
They have a saying a South America which is roughly translated as "It is better to have a bird on your hand than 100 flying". I am not sure where it is from, but I haerd it in Venezuela many a years ago. So, if you give me $1,000.00. I would thank you for it. No point on taking a chance on loosing part of it.
I'm Venezuelan/Italian, was born and raised there. Beautiful country, horrible dictator.

-FYB
Most skill based sport? -
The sport of understanding women.