AF447 stalled but crew maintained nose-up attitude

[dedalos]

Except that all of this data is taken directly from the black boxes.  The only thing the black boxes don't tell you is why those control inputs were made--i.e. what were the humans thinking?  So, perhaps its ok, just this once, to keep the conspiracy theories out of this one.

  That is exactly what I am saying.  The recordings don't tell you why they did what they did.

Check this one out.  It was initially blamed on the pilots (Helios Airways Flight 522).  Do some search and see for yourself how many accidents have been blamed on the pilots initially.  It is just cheaper for the airlines and the airplane makers.

[tassos]

My Hometrailer is more Safe than the Most modern Plane.
Hometrailer are speedlimit to 80kmh in Europe I dont have a cruisecontrol if I go over 80kmh I have to pay Alot
Thats why I use GPS, when I go over 80kmh the Navigationsystem warn me.
Even if my Speedgauge Fail I can read in my GPS the speed
WHY Modern planes dont have this?
Who Beleve that Terorist can Hijack Helicopter and Break into Nuclearplants (2hours for Supergau)
Who knews that people with 14 Carpetknifes killed about 3000 people in about 3 hours?
Go on stupid I phone generation...

[Tupac]

Airplanes have GPS that tell you groundspeed, which is the speed of point a to b, but airspeed is what matters when talking about stalling. You can't know the airspeed from a GPS.

[Vulcan]

Airplanes have GPS that tell you groundspeed, which is the speed of point a to b, but airspeed is what matters when talking about stalling. You can't know the airspeed from a GPS.

GPS can derive altitude though, might be a dumb question but why hasn't anyone built a system to derive airspeed in the event of a pitot failure from GPS - even if it's just a backup?

[cpxxx]

You have to have been there to understand. Back when I was a new pilot, I was judgemental. How could they lose control? Then I got a job as a skydive pilot. My job was to get the customers to altitude and drop them. Easy you think, yes it is when the sun shines. In the USA there's a rule, no dropping in cloud. That wouldn't work in Europe. So I found myself in cloud, often with ice building up and high ground nearby. More than once, I'm in the middle of an icing cloud near  a hill nearby. You have no idea of the tension.

I have a GARMIN 430 and it's yelling 'Terrain, terrain'. The only thing you have in your favour is local knowledge.

Take away the local knowledge and you are doomed.

At times, I've lost it, the only thing that saves me is the fact that I'm know where I am and I know that wings level and a descent or climb will save my ass.

But consider an airline pilot, whose life is all numbers somwhere off Africa. Suddenly it all goes crazy. What do you do?

[Tupac]

GPS can derive altitude though, might be a dumb question but why hasn't anyone built a system to derive airspeed in the event of a pitot failure from GPS - even if it's just a backup?

Because it would have to know the exact winds at the point in space at that time.

[saggs]

That is exactly what I am saying.  The recordings don't tell you why they did what they did.

Check this one out.  It was initially blamed on the pilots (Helios Airways Flight 522).  Do some search and see for yourself how many accidents have been blamed on the pilots initially.  It is just cheaper for the airlines and the airplane makers.

Who else besides the Pilots CAN you blame this one one?  

Facts are:
-They flew into a storm they should NOT have (it's still unknown why they chose to fly into that monster storm)
-They lost airspeed data.
-They have an SOP to follow in the event of loss of airspeed data.  (the same Airbus model had had several previous pitot icing incidents, all ended safely)
-They DID NOT follow that procedure, which lead to an extreme AOA near the flight ceiling, and stall, from which they did not and/or could not recover.

Other factors are probably the fact that they where getting bombarded with system warnings incipient to the pitot failures, and they where likely getting bounced around like crazy in that storm.

I'm not ragging on pilots at all, I trust them with my life every time I fly without a second thought, just like I trust the mechanics, and controllers with my life as well every time I fly.  But the facts are that nearly all commercial aviation accidents are attributed to "Human Factors"  whether those humans are the pilots the mechanics/techs or a combination of both.

When maintained and operated within the proper parameters the machines themselves are very, very safe.... ...the weakest link in aviation safety is the human being, that's just the way it is.  Fortunately incidents like this are very, very rare, and flying is still safer then just about anything else I do everyday.

[Vulcan]

Because it would have to know the exact winds at the point in space at that time.

yup but there must be a "something is better than nothing" point reach.

[CAP1]

Except that all of this data is taken directly from the black boxes.  The only thing the black boxes don't tell you is why those control inputs were made--i.e. what were the humans thinking?  So, perhaps its ok, just this once, to keep the conspiracy theories out of this one.

did they not find the cockpit voice recorder also?

[saggs]

did they not find the cockpit voice recorder also?

Yes, from the report from the French it seems like there wasn't a lot of voice chatter though.  Talks about one of them calling for the Captain to come back (he was on routine rest period), FO acknowledging taking manual control, Captain acknowledging taking control from FO when he gets back...  reading off the altitude tape as they drop....  that's about it.

[dedalos]

Who else besides the Pilots CAN you blame this one one?  

Facts are:
-They flew into a storm they should NOT have (it's still unknown why they chose to fly into that monster storm)
-They lost airspeed data.
-They have an SOP to follow in the event of loss of airspeed data.  (the same Airbus model had had several previous pitot icing incidents, all ended safely)
-They DID NOT follow that procedure, which lead to an extreme AOA near the flight ceiling, and stall, from which they did not and/or could not recover.

Other factors are probably the fact that they where getting bombarded with system warnings incipient to the pitot failures, and they where likely getting bounced around like crazy in that storm.

I'm not ragging on pilots at all, I trust them with my life every time I fly without a second thought, just like I trust the mechanics, and controllers with my life as well every time I fly.  But the facts are that nearly all commercial aviation accidents are attributed to "Human Factors"  whether those humans are the pilots the mechanics/techs or a combination of both.

When maintained and operated within the proper parameters the machines themselves are very, very safe.... ...the weakest link in aviation safety is the human being, that's just the way it is.  Fortunately incidents like this are very, very rare, and flying is still safer then just about anything else I do everyday.

Where is golfer when you need him 

These guys are not your average hotshot that will break every rule and fly in clouds in kite.  They are highly trained professionals in a real plane flying at 35,000feet.  There is some time to react up there.  Those maybe the facts as you say, but if there was a malfunction and they were getting the wrong information from the plane they might have responded the wrong way.  It would not be their fault even though the facts would state so.

Do a simple search and see for yourself how many times the pilots have been blamed initially.  I am not saying it can;t be their fault.  Just saying it is a little too early to claim they know exactly what happened.  Initially the said they wont have anything to tell us until sometime in July.  King of fast dont you think?  Normally these investigation dion't take a month to come to a conclusion.

[saggs]

... 

[Golfer]

GPS can derive altitude though, might be a dumb question but why hasn't anyone built a system to derive airspeed in the event of a pitot failure from GPS - even if it's just a backup?

It exists.  Even Tupac family 172 can derive that information from the Garmin unit that his dad is installing in their airplane.  Dig a little into the GPS or FMS functions in most airplanes and you'll find a GPS derived altitude quite simply.

In the simulator I've been given frozen pitot tubes (L, R and Standby) which make your airspeed indicators act more like altimeters.  What will happen is during initial climb is you'll have what you perceive to be a boost of performance with your airspeed trending up and increasing your pitch angle to take advantage of the performance.  Once you get past a certain point of what is normal your brain starts clicking and you know the airplane doesn't perform like that so you begin to look at what's going on. GPS derived groundspeed is displayed in my current airplane and cross checking that to show that the 300kts being indicated isn't correct.  In that case setting your pitch to where it needs to be-ish (TLAR, That Looks About Right) and the thrust levers where they typically are was the recovery.  Eventually finding clear air and letting the pitot heats do their job will let the ice eventually melt or sublimate (or in the simulator, the instructor or check airman will clear the malfunction) and off you go.

For a professional flight crew to take a happily flying and trimmed airplane with 7 miles of sky between them and the ocean to their deaths in about 3 minutes is a big deal.  The weather they were in was no joke, they were at night, in a low of their bodies rest rhythms and not expecting anything like this while fat dumb and happy in cruise.

While it's easy to say it won't happen to me, I'd like to know what happened to them with some factual reporting and analysis so I can prevent it.  The updated findings can be found here:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/point.enquete.af447.27mai2011.en.pdf

[rogwar]

Thanks for that link. Looks like they were piloting a darn stall all the way to the water.

[Tupac]

My question is, how did they not know they were stalling? Instrument failures or not, surely they must have felt the plane buffeting?