Author Topic: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)  (Read 21095 times)

Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2016, 08:31:47 PM »
The "K" has the standard length tail with a curved fillet on the leading edge.

Here's an "N" with the longer tail. Note the rearward position of the vertical stab to the horizontal. On the standard tails, the leading edges line up.

« Last Edit: July 25, 2016, 08:37:58 PM by Devil 505 »
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Offline Guppy35

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2016, 08:56:07 PM »
Yep. Larger not longer :)
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Offline Crash Orange

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2016, 08:58:00 PM »
For balance, the LW has a slightly better fighter set,

Slightly better? I don't see how the P-39s and especially the P-40s will be anything but lambs for the slaughter, and the Spit V is still outclassed by all the German planes. The P-38s are the only Allied fighters that can engage any of the LW planes on anything like equal terms. The C-202s will be more survivable in this environment than the P-39s and easily superior to the P-40s.

If we're going to dispense with historical numerical imbalances for the sake of a balanced scenario, I don't see why we can't also tweak the historical plane set a little for the sake of a balanced scenario as well (still keeping it planes in service at the time, of course). Upgrade the Spit Vs to Spit IXs (which were in service well before February 1943) and maybe balance that by ditching the B-17s for Boston IIIs, which were certainly present in Tunisia, if not in 12th AF.  I like the idea of RAF P-40 jabos as well.

Keep in mind that when the choices for the vote were described this was billed as having as many RAF as USAAF planes - "Estimated plane set:  Spit V, Spit IX, P-38G, P-40, P-39, A-20, B-25, Boston III vs. 109G, 109F, 190A-5, 110C, C.202, Ju 88."

Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2016, 09:28:09 PM »
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Offline ROC

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2016, 09:31:48 PM »
Well, since you asked...

This is a twelve hour event.  You are scoring it based on points.  I am not focusing on the only other 12 hour event we've had to push the format as "the" single best way to run it, but we have had these conversations in depth, Nefari and I.

You can't balance this event based on standard events.  You have this scored as an overall points based event.  What happens when 3 hours into the fight, most of your fighters log off, and one sides bombers show up in bulk and accumulate a massive lead on bomb damage?  It might take 6 hours of extreme effort to overcome a burst of bomber activity.  The pacing of events like this has to have an element in place that allows for quadrants to be fought for, then move onto other quadrants.  Each quarter of the event is a stand alone score, and it's achieve the objective or don't.  This way, the Allies can win in the morning if you get a large turnout of Euro players who want to be Allies, next phase when the Axis come on in force they can secure a win, prime time puts the next phase into the Allies column then the last frame can either draw the event to a tie or push a side over the top.  With points based across the twelve hour, it's too easy for one side to dominate too early and leave no margin for later.
Quarters also create command segments.  You don't need one CO to run 12 hours, you can create CO Teams if needed, and have each leader hand off the event to the next CO if they want.  You need to create a segmented event to allow for options for command and missions.
You can launch 3 missions per segment, the COs can decide if they have a chance to win in the last hour or if not, can opt to send their planes out to set up for the next mission instead. 
You need to refine your objectives per segment.  Not a blanket "all targets are available".  Free for all will encourage players to simply hide and seek and pork the map instead of push the fights over more limited targets. 

Set up each 3 hour segment to have it's own objectives, own target area, and the ability but not the requirement for command to hand off leadership to the next guy without there being a mission already in progress.
Once you do that, you can then count the objects on the targets, count the bombs available, and then come up with a balance based on Facts, what can be killed, what can be bombed, how many planes does it take to drop a bomber, how many bombers does it take to drop objects, and balance the event on facts, not assumptions and historical documents that have no relevance here.  Or, if you want to historically account for the ratio of, say P38s, then do that, and THEN you can assign how many bombers need to be up, compared to how many have a chance of surviving, and then set the hardness of the objectives to reflect this.   Designing an event of this scale needs to be done from the Facts First, then adjust to meet the Expectations.  Divide up the targets into 4 battle areas.  Spreadsheet the objects and total damage.  Add the number of bombers needed to kill the objectives.  Decide what percentage of bombers need to survive to meet the objectives.  Then start adjusting hardness of objects based on fighter plane numbers and spend the next 5 weeks crunching data. 
That's just my opinion.
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Offline ROC

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #20 on: July 25, 2016, 09:38:08 PM »
Quote
Free for all will encourage players to simply hide and seek and pork the map instead of push the fights over more limited targets. 
I want to elaborate on this one point a little more.
This doesn't mean micromanage and script the event. It means, for the sake of balance, you have to have a battle that allows for and counts on attrition.  If 15 bombers are needed to achieve an objective, and 30 bombers are launched knowing the x number of fighters stand a good chance of killing half of the bombers in a simple generic fight, it stands to reason that you need to focus heavily on doing better than average to down more than half the bombers to prevent them from achieving their objective.  This means the balance is created to allow for the bombers to get in, allow for enough defenders to keep the bombers alive and fight the attacking enemy, and enough enemy to prevent it.  This model works if you point to the 3 targets that are in a particular battle area, and keep the fight focused there.  3 solid chances to get in and achieve the objective.  If you don't focus the fight, you can't balance for objectives, because one side can simply stealth around the map from 30 different directions and pork fields and only half have to make it out alive.  This means the other side has to send out singles to go find the singles, and it's a bad event for everyone.  This, not scripting, is why you focus the fight.  You make it so the fight has to be won, and both sides have an equal chance of winning it.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2016, 09:39:45 PM by ROC »
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Offline Guppy35

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #21 on: July 25, 2016, 09:47:32 PM »
Slightly better? I don't see how the P-39s and especially the P-40s will be anything but lambs for the slaughter, and the Spit V is still outclassed by all the German planes. The P-38s are the only Allied fighters that can engage any of the LW planes on anything like equal terms. The C-202s will be more survivable in this environment than the P-39s and easily superior to the P-40s.

If we're going to dispense with historical numerical imbalances for the sake of a balanced scenario, I don't see why we can't also tweak the historical plane set a little for the sake of a balanced scenario as well (still keeping it planes in service at the time, of course). Upgrade the Spit Vs to Spit IXs (which were in service well before February 1943) and maybe balance that by ditching the B-17s for Boston IIIs, which were certainly present in Tunisia, if not in 12th AF.  I like the idea of RAF P-40 jabos as well.

Keep in mind that when the choices for the vote were described this was billed as having as many RAF as USAAF planes - "Estimated plane set:  Spit V, Spit IX, P-38G, P-40, P-39, A-20, B-25, Boston III vs. 109G, 109F, 190A-5, 110C, C.202, Ju 88."

Don't be so hard on the Spit Vs.  They can do just fine against the 109s and they were there in bigger numbers at the time.  I want em anyway :)   I agree on the 39 not being included.  it was too much of a secondary role player.  The estimated plane set is a good one, just put the RAF 40Es in for the 39D :aok
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Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2016, 10:02:09 PM »
Well said ROC.

Just an observation though, Target for Today had only one side attacking making your system easy to implement. Brooke has many varying attack aircraft types across both sides, each with it's own ability to fight and survive.

The B-26 will excel in both areas while the Ju 88 lacks the survivability despite having a nearly equal bomb load. How do you balance that in terms of scoring?

Perhaps having an object quota per attack squad set to reflect the relative ability to attack and survive is a solution?
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Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2016, 10:06:51 PM »
Brooke you mentioned the fact that the Ju 88's were based in Sicily and questioned how to handle that. How far did the American heavy bombers travel to reach their targets in Tunisia?

To me the best idea is to have the bombers for both sides have takeoff bases chosen not necessarily based on historical location but placed so that the tame to target both sides is as equal as possible.
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Offline Guppy35

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2016, 10:11:56 PM »
Well said ROC.

Just an observation though, Target for Today had only one side attacking making your system easy to implement. Brooke has many varying attack aircraft types across both sides, each with it's own ability to fight and survive.

The B-26 will excel in both areas while the Ju 88 lacks the survivability despite having a nearly equal bomb load. How do you balance that in terms of scoring?

Perhaps having an object quota per attack squad set to reflect the relative ability to attack and survive is a solution?

Leave the 26 out. The 25s and A-20s can do the job :aok
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Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #25 on: July 25, 2016, 10:46:08 PM »
Leave the 26 out. The 25s and A-20s can do the job :aok

I agree on the 26, but that still does not balance the scoring.

Here's an example, I'll use the B-26 vs. Ju 88 for the sake of argument because each carries 4000 lbs of ord. Say that it takes 10 sets of either bomber to drop 100 buildings if an attack has no opposition. what percentage is likely to survive an attack that has opposition. Lets assume that the B-26's suffer 33% losses and thus only drop 66 buildings on average. Therefore the threshold quota would be 66 buildings to achieve the objective. 65 buildings and below nets the defenders the win. That's how Target for Today worked. Simple and easy.

But what about the Ju 88's? They will suffer worse than 33% losses on average and thus a 66 building quota for a win is unreasonable.

And that's just with 2 planes with equal bomb loads.

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Offline Guppy35

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #26 on: July 25, 2016, 11:07:57 PM »
I agree on the 26, but that still does not balance the scoring.

Here's an example, I'll use the B-26 vs. Ju 88 for the sake of argument because each carries 4000 lbs of ord. Say that it takes 10 sets of either bomber to drop 100 buildings if an attack has no opposition. what percentage is likely to survive an attack that has opposition. Lets assume that the B-26's suffer 33% losses and thus only drop 66 buildings on average. Therefore the threshold quota would be 66 buildings to achieve the objective. 65 buildings and below nets the defenders the win. That's how Target for Today worked. Simple and easy.

But what about the Ju 88's? They will suffer worse than 33% losses on average and thus a 66 building quota for a win is unreasonable.

And that's just with 2 planes with equal bomb loads.

I have no answer, other than all I'm worried about is getting to dance with 109s in my Spit VbTrop :)
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Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #27 on: July 25, 2016, 11:25:20 PM »
I have no answer, other than all I'm worried about is getting to dance with 109s in my Spit VbTrop :)

That will be fun as long as we can keep the P-38's and 190's out of it.  :devil
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #28 on: July 25, 2016, 11:29:25 PM »
ROC, good point on the segmenting of the battle so that a blow out from over-representation in one, say, 3-hour segment doesn't determine the outcome of the whole event.  I will score things in four segments and have the victor be the one who wins the most segments.

Good point also on focusing of battle to avoid boring missions that are all avoidance.  The map for this battle is a little smaller than the active area for phase 1 of TFT and has the same number of land targets as phase 1 of TFT (3), so I was thinking that area would give it enough focus.  But when you add in ships (a 4th target for level bombers) and consider that there a quite a lot of targets for attack planes on land and sea, it probably does need phases to focus that better, as you say.  I will work on that.

Many thanks.

Offline Devil 505

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Re: Suggestions regarding next Scenario (October, 2016)
« Reply #29 on: July 25, 2016, 11:49:28 PM »
And why sub the F-8 for SKG 10? The F-8 has too much armor and carries too much ordnance. They had A-4's and our A-5 is so close that HTC allows A-4 schemes to be skinned on the A-5. (I even skinned a SKG 10 A-4 from this exact period)

Found the answer in the write-up.
Quote
FW 190F's not used in 1943 -- they were 190A's, but the F has about same performance and allows me to enable bombs on just the ground attackers.


I still don't like it. Would it not be just as easy to count object's destroyed be the attack Groups? Also, trust your group leaders to make sure their pilots take the right loadout.

and also...

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