The graph for a week shows an interesting trend. Without knowing more an inference could be made, one or two countries tend to respond to peak population spikes from one of the three countries by citizens logging out. Who wants to take an arse whipping at the hands of an obvious superior numbered ability to attack or defend?
So determining some of this, probably by logging into the arena and see if the spikes translate into the times a country pulls together into a hoard to squat on one of the other countries would be valid. While seeing if in those cases where the second country logged out, if that visually on the map, they couldn't get into any real fights due to the hoard concentrated on the other front.
Then you are back to the player on the ground common wisdom about this era of the Aces High game. No one wants to fight unless they have all of the odds in their favor. Might be why missions no longer happen and why game play is more stagnant. If you have a large part of the community made up of veterans of even the past 5 years, they can tell as individuals by experience if it's worth investing their time into the current read of the CBM and country status. Missions are out then before they are born. There is no magic saddling up with three guys even in 262 and defeating a hoard of 20 in late war rides. Either they will snack on your expensive 262's or go elsewhere on the map to make use of their superior numbers and rides under better conditions. Still it looks like the real strategy is to log off and try another day because the odds are your country will have at least one good day a week.
In it's simplest analysis of the graph, you are looking at the personality of the majority community "who doesn't come to these forums" as it is in today's Aces High 3. But, you are willing to project on them your personality and what makes you happy for this game when you come up with solutions to throw at Hitech. And Hitech is stuck making sense of cold data pulled real time from the arenas as to the nature of that majority community who never comes in here and tells everyone they have the magic solution to all of the game's problems.
The majority who never comes in here don't fly KOTH, go to the DA, or ever wants a fair fight in the MA. They don't want to loose or make too large of a sacrifice for their rewards. So Hitech is stuck making them happy based on that personality which dominates AH3 right now. The rest of you are like asking world class race car drivers to design a four cylinder go to the market car 3 days a week for blue haired little old ladies. No balance to reality which Hitech has to deal with.