The normal flu for which we have vaccines and herd immunity affects 3-11% of the population each year.
Common Flu has a R0 of 1.3. CoronaVirus is conservatively estimated at 2.2. I'm seen scarier estimates around 4. But 2.2 is what I'm using for now.
Some experts believe that between now and when we get a vaccine 1.5-2 yr from now, we can expect 40-70% of the population to have contracted the disease.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/So far our infection rate is .00001.
But of course, that number is almost complete invalid because we've done minuscule amounts of testing. The tests are just now getting distributed. There will soon be drive-thru testing stations set up in major population centers. Expect the identified infected rate to skyrocket over the next month.
The numbers we end up with depend on the choices people make.
To some extent.
Except for all the people who have already been exposed before they were warned about the threat.
Except for all the people who still had to show up for work and school until they started closing.
Except for all the people who had it brought home by family members.
Still, everything you can do helps bend that curve a little, but I don't see how we realistically don't get to 50% infection rate over the next year.
I'm guessing our CFR will be closer to 2%. The two co-morbidity factors that are starting to jump out are age over 50 and (oddly)obesity. Comparing Fried Chicken-Eating Boomer America to S. Korea, I'm expecting worse outcomes. But not as bad as chain-smoking China.
So yeah, do the math from there.