Dark Man Cometh???

[SysError]

WHO says virus stays "alive":
~ 3 hours in an aerosolized form in some cases.
~ 24 hours of soft surfaces  - i.e. cardboard
~ 48-72 hours on hard surfaces.

Heat and light tend to shorten its life.

This is an update on current thinking about COVID-19 on surfaces:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

Very interesting: Table I: Persistence of coronaviruses on different types of inanimate surfaces

While some issues have been put into better focus, there are some disturbing developments:

... the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, touching a surface or object with the virus and then touching one's own face "is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads".

This is somewhat worrying.


Also, when cleaning/wiping down surfaces note that it can take up to a minute for the disinfectant to work.  So if you wipe down the handles of your shopping chart, wait a minute for it to work.


Also, as to what works best:
62-71% alcohol
0.5% hydrogen peroxide bleach
household bleach containing 0.1% sodium hypochlorite.

Less effective
0.05–0.2% benzalkonium chloride
0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate
(I would like to know which products use these but I do not know)

This information looks useful, unfortunately it is not presented in a very clear format.
https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2


Hand washing with soap and hot water for 20 seconds is still considered the best way to stop the spread.

However, unfortunately some research on SARS suggested that the most effective water temperature needed to kill the thing is 56°C or 132°F or higher and then it was only effective "..at a rate of about 10,000 viral particles every 15 minutes."

So plain rinsing with even very hot water is not as effective as a good hand wash with soap and hot water.


It is troubling that the virus can circulate in unfiltered air conditioning systems, even if it is only a concern for a couple of hours at the most.


When we buy groceries, we are leaving the non perishables isolated for 4 days.  Still not sure what to do with fresh produce and items that need refrigeration.

Does this thing “live” longer on fresh produce?  What impact does refrigeration have on it?

[guncrasher]

That one is easy:  Why pay someone who knows what they are doing $30 an hr when they can hire "wet behind the ears" for $10 an hr?

pay was the same experience or not.



semp

[icepac]

Not sure what to make of Mexico, very low numbers, they either don't have the resources to test and report, fewer large population centers, travel to Mexico is less to a degree that they aren't getting exposed to it as a country like Italy would?

Any thoughts?

Hungry

I do trust the information on servers with .edu for my information since the people contributing to that server are interested in data and not spinning anything.

[icepac]

Right before the dot com collapse, most of the companies hired only super young and inexperienced people.

I'm not saying that all the young and inexperienced are incapable of doing a good job because there are some exceptional people regardless of age out there.    It's just that they are the exception more and more as years pass.

In the auto industry, we have guys applying for jobs at lexus as technicians with zero knowledge of automobiles or engines when, a good while back, the guys applying for jobs spent their entire childhood playing with minibike and go-kart engines to the point of understanding the rudiments from firsthand knowledge.   

The exceptions are out there and those are the ones who succeed without losing a finger on the brake lathe the first two months of work.

[Brooke]

Heres the site i like for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[CptTrips]

Heres the site i like for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's what I use.

I've started focusing more on Deaths:Recovered than Deaths:Infected. 

Because there is up to a 24-30 day progression of the disease from infection to end stage, and the exponential rate so the vast majority of current infected are recent...I think the lag time makes the Deaths:Infected look unrealistically optimistic.  Unfortunately.

Deaths:Recovered  normalizes this lag time effect.  That is where the rubber hits the road.  End stage.  You either recovered or you died.  That number is not looking that good.

Or course, Recovered probably isn't counting a lot of people who only had mild symptoms or recovered before any testing was available.  So it's hard to know. 



[Edit]  The only thing I think we can be sure of is it's not going to be less than 100 deaths and over by the end of March.   I don't care what QAnon says. 

[FLS]

Yes, someone went to great lengths to make the available data easy to read.

I prefer this to importing data into a relational database myself.

I lost my patience in the 90s when I was busy migrating data from foxpro to access.

This site breaks down the stats on the JohnHopkins site.

http://covid19stats.global/

Brooke's link looks good too.

Here is an interestng article on understanding what the statistics mean.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

[1stpar3]

Could anyone ever determine how and where it started?

If it was accidental or otherwise?

Not what the chi coms claim- sry don't believe them at all

This thing seems like a powerful weapon if used strategically at the right place at the right

Would sound like a Clancy novel if he hadn't already wrote a book about a bio weapon

Imagine this made into an aerosol and pumped into a stadium cooling system at say the Olympics?

Hoping it can't be that easy as there are too many nut bags out there

<S>

Eagler

LOVE THAT ONE! "Well didnt you want to commune with nature?"  It ends JUST RIGHT

[FLS]

From the site I linked above,  95% of people sick enough to get a Doctor's note for testing were not positive for the Chinese virus.

Remember that 80% of those that are positive have a mild case and only 5% are critical.

Keep calm. Wash your hands.

[CptTrips]

A tad disconcerting.

This isn't foreign nationals they are talking about here.  They're asking for the power to detain American citizens indefinitely.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/doj-coronavirus-emergency-powers-140023

[DREDIOCK]

Heres the site i like for data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And if you scroll down and look at the per country numbers still the largest question is. Why is Germany doing so much better then the rest of the world? Both in terms of new cases, recovery and mortality, the number of deaths they are experiencing is more in line with countries that have a fraction of the number of the infections.

[Brooke]

I wouldn't put much stake in the number of infections because countries aren't testing that many people, and testing rates vary widely country to country.  Germany might be testing way more of its population than the US, for example.

The death stats, though, are probably accurate.  I suspect nearly everyone critically ill with a respiratory infection does get tested.

As for Germany not having as many deaths per capita as another country, infectious diseases don't spread evenly, especially in the early stages.  And Germans might have taken better precautions earlier than Italians, French, or Spanish.

[1stpar3]

it's not personal, it's just business.

ever read this on employee book.  company and employee can terminate contract at any time with or without reason.  company expects 2 weeks notice.

last job i worked i got hurt.  several months later i was told i needed surgery by 3 different doctors company sent me to.   i had a meeting with safety department and i was assured i would get the surgery i needed ti get back to work.  2 days later i was in a meeting with those two guys and hr telling me they could not accommodate my disability. 

so how much trust do i have in company/ evoke l evoke l employee relations? none.  years 25 years ago i could not hire employees with a good employment record because they were over 30. they prefered new college graduates who didn't know crap.


semp

BEEN THERE I was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis in 2002..then in 2004 my Hand Numbness was tested. It was Carpal Tunnel, not related to the MS. Saw company Doc  with HR Manager present. He was like"The area you are in will be counter productive as to recovery(I was on the "Rail Loading" for the US GYPSUM/ THE SHEET ROCK company's newest plant in Alabama). This was where most folk with "restrictions" were sent. It did however tend to be a job that would have caused issues with Carpal Tunnel. Plus, My DOC put me on a 90 degree Cease and Desist Temperature limit due to increased fatigue possibilities(he started at 80f...had to beg for 90). So HR guy was like.."Have you thought about just drawing disability?" I was paying for Disability "Extended" Insurance at the time. So had the surgery and resigned myself to the reality of the situation.....just to get "Well, since your 5 years was NOT up...no Work/Insurance for you! Was 4 years and 11 months 14 days....WTF  So YEAH...have trust issues

[Brooke]

One analysis of how SARS-2 testing in the US got botched:

https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat

[icepac]

I have a theory that may help and it's pretty obvious.   (probably mentioned by plenty of others)

The viral load of who you catch it from or the amount of initial virus cells you ingest will determine the severity of your own infection.
If a person catches the virus with the minimum amount needed for infection, I feel that the case will be far less severe.
It gives the immune system time to kick in before your viral load (which increases exponentially) reaches the levels that cause severe symptoms.

This can be worked out with simple math and knowledge of exponential growth with the commodities or stock market is a good indicator.

Someone who bought 1000 shares of Microsoft during their initial public offering in march 1986 will end up far richer today than someone who bought 25 shares............by a staggering amount.

It will certainly not be the $24,500 difference between their initial investment.    The difference will be many millions.

The stock market analogy is only for exponential growth.     It does not factor in the immune system's action.

I think this is why some of the young are showing up with severe cases. Their initial infection was much larger and this is what allowed it to overwhelm their immune system.

My girl is in health care and is in charge of coronavirus testing at her facility.
She suggested she sequester herself when she gets home and has no contact with me because she's worried she will infect me (or she has a new boyfriend).

I was in a molecular biology curriculum in college and continued self study emphasizing epidemiology since the mid 1980s so I knew at the time of the initial outbreak in china that there was no containing coronavirus.
I will continue to be with her such that, should she get infected, then I will get infected when her viral load is low............unless she got a whopper of a dose.    Then I'm screwed as well.

I feel that Tom Hanks and his wife Rita caught it near simultaneously from the same source or that one of them passed it to the other at the onset.    This is one reason why one wasn't significantly more sick than the other.

Lets say that Rita and Tom made it home before knowing they were sick and Rita self sequestered herself in a room separate from Tom.
Despite precautions, Tom would eventually become infected in a home quarantine situation.
If Tom were to catch it from Rita halfway through her infection when her viral load is spiking, his case would likely have been far worse.

I will let my Aces High brothers know how it turns out.