Dark Man Cometh???

[DREDIOCK]

Among other things

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us

[asterix]

If YOU are the one one that sick then YOU are the one that should be wearing the mask

Not when the mask has an exhalation valve.

I think I might have it. I've been ill for a week. I thought it was flu. Today I went to buy 800 3M N100 (FFP3) face masks. Some dude sold them for 1€ per piece, best before date 2013... Had a lot of dry cough in the morning. Had to really contrate not to cough while buying the masks. About 5 hours ago I noticed some muscle pain and it has been getting worse, and I feel pretty weak. If it's COVID-19, then it's hopefully a really mild case.

Doesn´t your country have a COVID info website with all information about who to call and what to do in different cases described?

[Shuffler]

Yesterday about 800 dead, wake up this morning 1000+ dead..
But it's just the Flu, 

Well, if the Government wants to maintain any credibility???
Then they better quit tryin to blow sunshine up our backsides..

It ain't workin, 

Yes.... look how many are dead from the regular flu.

[OldNitro]

Yes.... look how many are dead from the regular flu.

Been warning people long enough, people don't have to listen..
I got lots of popcorn, all I have to do is sit back and watch..
Mmmmm, CHEESE Popcorn!

Rock on, 

[hitech]

Thing is, some people are doing the responsible thing, but others are not.. So the isolation will need to be LONGER and LONGER.. Because of the carriers still out there, the infection cycle continues.. Idiots are just gonna drag it out until it screws up everything.. (insert facepalm emoji)

This is not correct. I have not heard anyone state that isolation will lessen the total number of people who get the virus. It only will spread out the time it takes the virus to go threw the population (I.E. Flaten curve) and hence lower the load on the health care system. So what you say is dragging things out, is actually backwards.
I'm not promoting that more people should be exposed to the virus but only stating the obvious that the quicker people are exposed to the virus the sooner the crises is over. But this would be at the expense of more people dieing.

About death rates:

This is a terrible video, It is comparing tested positive rates, but many times stating it as a proportion of people who have the virus. I have not heard any good estimates (there may be some) of number of people who have the virus and not tested vs number of people who were tested positive for the virus. It would seem to me that the more mild the case, the less likely the person would be tested. Hence the gent in the video is simply taking garbage in and spitting garbage out with out doing any real analysis of how the data could be used to project real world outcomes.

I have no idea what the right time is to get back in gear. But I do believe many people underestimate the risks an extreme depression would create, the worst case scenario in my view is far worse the the worst case virus scenario.  Worst case would be a complete government failure. I'm not speaking to the likely hood of that case, only that it is a non zero chance.

So any discussion of the isolation must

1. Balance virus vs economy and not make the stupid statement we must be isolated to save as many lives as possible. Because the economy could cause far more deaths then the virus.
2. Isolation must not be viewed as the only method to slow spread. 

Finally

The goals must not be lost, and those goals are to not overwhelm the health care system , minimize exposure of high risks groups, develop herd immunity threw exposure, inoculation or prophylactic.

My view for what it's worth.

HiTech



HiTech

[OldNitro]

Heard a good one, a little while ago..

Asking an Economist, how to deal with a Pandemic Disease Outbreak..
Is like asking a Nurse, how to deal with a Worldwide Financial Collapse..

[Mister Fork]

[military training rant on]

There is zero benefit of wearing a mask or gloves if you do not have the virus. They're social soothers - to give you the false impression you are doing your part to stop the spread.

Unless you are in a hazmat/NBCW suit, it is impossible not to infect surfaces if you are infected. This is germ warfare 101 I taught in the military. Wiping down surfaces etc, all social sothering if you're allowing others to re-touch after cleaning. Using public toilets? Public anything? It's just a matter of time even if you wear a mask and gloves before you pick up a pandemic virus.

[/military training rant off]

And this is right out of the curriculum I taught my military recruits.

How to avoid a pandemic COVID19 disaster? Make your people stay the fruck home. Self isolate. And all it does is flatten the curve to slow the eventual spread. You WILL eventually catch COVID-19 at some point. It's just a matter of spreading out that 'when' timeline so that if you do need medical assistance, the hospitals are dealing with a dozen issues, not 10'000.


 

[hitech]

[military training rant on]

There is zero benefit of wearing a mask or gloves if you do not have the virus. They're social soothers - to give you the false impression you are doing your part to stop the spread.

Why? The mask seems fairly obvious to me why they would not help , but why does using one time use gloves when having to touch common surfaces (like card key pad) not help?

HiTech

[OldNitro]

Hey Fork.. If I follow that logic, then I get this..

Because a Kevlar helmet won't stop a direct hit from a Rifle round..
You shouldn't bother wearing one in combat??? It's just to make ya feel good..

I always figured, some protection is better than nothing..
Whether it is body armor, or an N95 mask..

My military favorite was:
"What is the range of an Excuse???" Answer: "ZERO EFFEN METERS!"

[snugar109]

but why does using one time use gloves when having to touch common surfaces (like card key pad) not help?

Walk through this with me. Typical person in line at store to check out. Put on a glove or two. Pull out wallet, insert into card reader, use pin pad, germs now on glove, remove card from terminal, germs now on card, place card into wallet, yup germs there too now and clothing or where ever you keep your wallet. Then go home a few hours later and order something online, get germed card and order. Later on eyes itch well guess I'll rub my eye, infected. Kind of a stretch but possible. How many of us clean a card before putting it back in a wallet?

[CptTrips]

I have not heard anyone state that isolation will lessen the total number of people who get the virus.

Theoretically you if you kept everyone isolated until you get a vaccine it would.   Stupid people not taking this seriously aren't changing the duration, but they are probably going to get more people dead than necessary. 

To me a period of strict isolation is to prevent as many unneeded deaths as possible.  As you know, once the medical system becomes saturated we start losing more and more people who should have been able to have been saved merely because capacity runs out tot treat them properly.  We are on a curve that will make Italy look like a walk in the park.

Also, the longer we can delay people from getting the illness, the more likely we would have found some pharma to help treat it and reduce fatalities. 

We flubbed the first part of this exponential curve so badly I think there is already a tidal wave of pain coming and just hasn't arrived yet.  I'm afraid April and May are going to be absolutely staggering.

Also, I'm not sure how much of the economy would be helped even if you lifted restrictions right now. 
If they did, would you take your family to dinner and a movie?  Get on a plane and go to DisneyLand?
Any business dealing directly with the public is just going to be toast no matter if you have official restrictions or not.

I think you are going to need to maintain the quarantine until:

1. You have your testing ready to go.  Massive testing.  We should be able to do 100k tests per day.  They need to be readily available and free of charge.  We need to know how many have (some may be asymptomatic super-spreaders) and where they are clustered so we can make intelligent decisions.  You can't make decisions blind.

2.  We get over the massive initial wave that is coming so that we don't overload the medical system and have time to spool up medical supply production and time to setup additional emergency facilities in schools and convention centers and such.

3.  That masks and gloves are readily available for all general population and provided free to employees you are asking to risk their lives and families lives to come back to work.

4.  You detect a noticeable and sustained bending of the infection curve so people think we're getting a handle on things.


Maybe June?

Any idea of intentionally just letting herd immunity develop through exposure is an completely insane.   With this virus' R0 that could require 80% of the entire population infected.  That could mean 3 million US deaths over the next 12 months.  That would lead to deep social/political/economic instability, IMHO.

 

[CptTrips]

There is zero benefit of wearing a mask or gloves if you do not have the virus. They're social soothers - to give you the false impression you are doing your part to stop the spread. 

That was my opinion early on, but I have been convinced that was in error in this case.

Usually, contamination for droplets on surfaces through your hands was by far the highest risk vector.

But this sucker is often airborne.  They are finding it could stay suspended for quite some time and be carried through ventilation systems.

And even a homemade mask from everyday materials can filter out at least 50% of virus sized particles:
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/diy-homemade-mask-protect-virus-coronavirus/

Don't neglect your hands, but we need to be thinking about masks too.

My apologies for arguing the opposite earlier.

 

[CptTrips]

Walk through this with me. Typical person in line at store to check out. Put on a glove or two. Pull out wallet, insert into card reader, use pin pad, germs now on glove, remove card from terminal, germs now on card, place card into wallet, yup germs there too now and clothing or where ever you keep your wallet. Then go home a few hours later and order something online, get germed card and order. Later on eyes itch well guess I'll rub my eye, infected. Kind of a stretch but possible. How many of us clean a card before putting it back in a wallet?

But I can come up with 50 scenarios where it gloves did protect you.  It's like wearing seatbelts.  I'd always have a friend who would posit some scenario where they got in a wreck and the seatbelt buckle got damaged and there was a fire and they wouldn't be able to get out, so it's just as safe to not wear a seatbelt.  Hmmm no, all probabilities considered, you're safer with a seatbelt than without.  Probabilities.

So it's not that there is no possible scenario where a chain of events my contamination you any way,  it's about stacking as many probabilities in your favor as possible.  As many layers of prophylactics as you can manage. 

[hitech]

Walk through this with me. Typical person in line at store to check out. Put on a glove or two. Pull out wallet, insert into card reader, use pin pad, germs now on glove, remove card from terminal, germs now on card, place card into wallet, yup germs there too now and clothing or where ever you keep your wallet. Then go home a few hours later and order something online, get germed card and order. Later on eyes itch well guess I'll rub my eye, infected. Kind of a stretch but possible. How many of us clean a card before putting it back in a wallet?

Ive done this very transaction.

Card inserted with  left hand hand no glove, Keyed with glove on right hand Then glove removed. Card removed with left hand and put back in wallet.
But I do understand your reasoning.

HiTech

[CptTrips]

Ive done this very transaction.

Card inserted with  left hand hand no glove, Keyed with glove on right hand Then glove removed. Card removed with left hand and put back in wallet.
But I do understand your reasoning.

HiTech

This is going to turn us all into Howard Hughes before it's over. 

(Who developed his phobias from his childhood during the Spanish Flu Pandemic)