Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY

[Firetech]

1. Covid has not been around for a year yet, so we can not compare year vs. year, yet.
2. first year stats from covid will be skewed by social distancing laws.
3. you will kill a good chunk of the heard if you let this disease go on its own. sure, comparing this year to two years from now, not as many would die in two years and infections would be less.  But, this year you wiped out 3-10 million of your herd to gain that "immunity".
4. Drug companies save everyone's lives, every year.  Run down your childs vaccine records then research history to check how bad life was. I dont see anyone walking with a polio limp anymore! how about a measles outbreak?  Seems like almost all kids go though school without horrific outcomes that were normal, just 80 years ago.

This guy gets it 

[Copprhed]

I haven't had the Flu since I stopped getting the shot. Not sure if it's coincidental. Just an observation.

Gee, I haven't lost my home to a tornado since I stopped picking my nose, just an observation....

[SysError]

I know that some here think that they know better, whatever....  The worst is yet to come.

Please use masks, stay home and if you must go out stay 10 feet apart.

And, if you are young and healthy, ask your neighbor if they are OK and if they need anything.


"WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to Covid-19

Herd immunity hopes dealt blow by report suggesting only 2%-3% of people have been infected"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

[hitech]

I know that some here think that they know better, whatever....  The worst is yet to come.

Please use masks, stay home and if you must go out stay 10 feet apart.

And, if you are young and healthy, ask your neighbor if they are OK and if they need anything.


"WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to Covid-19

Herd immunity hopes dealt blow by report suggesting only 2%-3% of people have been infected"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

A different way of looking at it from the same sight.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought
One of the key parts.

The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind in the US, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger salamander test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus. Volunteers for the study were recruited through Facebook ads, which researchers say were targeted to capture a representative sample of the county’s demographics and geography.
Advertisement

At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of participants who have antibodies, the study estimates it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April.

That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.

So now consider that if far more people.

1. The possibility to contain it becomes impossible.
2. The odds of creating a vaccination soon enough to have a significant impact on most of the population is small.
3. All we are doing is possibly  slowing the spread, but in the end we will still have to reach heard immunity.
4. The 2 = 3% number is in a non crisis area. If you do New York State with the same numbers working backwards from the death rate.
     NY State had 14,828 deaths. With a 0.12% - 0.20 death rate that works out to about to between 11.7   to million 7 people. So NY State has approximately 20 million. so between 35% and 58% of the people would have all ready been infected. Those numbers are approaching herd immunity, And could possibly be a major reason the new infection rate is dropping.

So now is it better to try isolate every one , or try to just isolate the high risk population?

HiTech




HITech

[Shuffler]

In Texas, as of today, deaths from Corona virus stand at 0.0000172%.

Total for the state... 517.

[Firetech]

The isolation guidelines are well published to help "flatten the curve" as in not overwhelm our ability to treat seriously ill folks and possibly save some along the way. The total numbers of infections don't really drop, they just spread out over the course of many months. New York is the US example to look at what happens when hospitals get overloaded. Many more die due to lack of resources. We don't yet know how many died that normally would have been saved due to other life threatening emergencies.

In Texas, as of today, deaths from Corona virus stand at 0.0000172%.

Total for the state... 517.

That is a huge win! Thanks to all the distancing! Also, folks having every day run of the mill emergencies like heart attacks, strokes, diabetic comas, car accidents and so on are able to be seen and treated in the proper time frames. Our hospitals and medical offices are not busting at the seams with COVID-19 patients.

3. All we are doing is possibly  slowing the spread, but in the end we will still have to reach heard immunity.

Has there been a peer reviewed study done if herd immunity can be reached with this virus?

[redcatcherb412]

The isolation guidelines are well published to help "flatten the curve" as in not overwhelm our ability to treat seriously ill folks and possibly save some along the way. The total numbers of infections don't really drop, they just spread out over the course of many months. New York is the US example to look at what happens when hospitals get overloaded. Many more die due to lack of resources. We don't yet know how many died that normally would have been saved due to other life threatening emergencies.
That is a huge win! Thanks to all the distancing! Also, folks having every day run of the mill emergencies like heart attacks, strokes, diabetic comas, car accidents and so on are able to be seen and treated in the proper time frames. Our hospitals and medical offices are not busting at the seams with COVID-19 patients.

A bit of a change from 3 weeks ago when they changed EMT rules for 'run of the mill' emergencies that might stop your heart from beating like heart attack, car crash, massive bleeding etc etc.

As the coronavirus stretches New York City emergency rooms and paramedics to their limits, a regional EMT group has issued new guidelines almost unthinkable even days ago -- if someone's in cardiac arrest and you can't revive them in the field, don't bring them to the emergency room.

The newly implemented order that takes effect Thursday was implemented in an effort to control the surge of patients in hospitals due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The guidance from the Regional Emergency Medical Services Council of New York City applies to the city as well as Nassau and Suffolk counties. The group, known as REMSCO, is the state-designated coordinating authority for the region.

[redcatcherb412]

More reasons to use any type of mask:

"Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800?query=featured_home


Also goes over the impact of loudness in speech..... 

Wear a mask, no don't wear a mask,  no no wear one ,  but maybe they won't help.  The back and forth of just this one item is getting to the point of ridiculous when WHO, who biffed their job as of a few weeks ago STILL confuses things even more.

there  is  currently  no  evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types)by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal   community   masking,   can   prevent   them   from   infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331693/WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

[Busher]

when WHO, who biffed their job as of a few weeks ago STILL confuses things even more.

sequence=1&isAllowed=y

The WHO biffed their job? Damn, I always have a problem with January 30 to March 13 every year. Must have slept through it.

[guncrasher]

Wear a mask, no don't wear a mask,  no no wear one ,  but maybe they won't help.  The back and forth of just this one item is getting to the point of ridiculous when WHO, who biffed their job as of a few weeks ago STILL confuses things even more.

there  is  currently  no  evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types)by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal   community   masking,   can   prevent   them   from   infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331693/WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

I dont think wearing a regular mask or home made one will help in any way.  but it does remind  those around to keep their distance.  so over all and specially if everybody has one it will reduce rate of infection.  that's what I think anyway, along with washing hands.


semp

[Shuffler]

Wearing one definitely makes it easier for criminals. Just like the masked guy who sucker punched a cop recently.

I do steer clear of those in mask. More so because if you are sick or around those who are, they suggest you wear one.

[Nilsen]

I spent 4 hours today taking masks & sterile medical gloves from our family stock and passing them out to my elderly neighbors....

I'm fortunate to have such a supply thanks to my oldest daughter, Sister and her 3 daughters all worked in the medical field......2 of my nieces still do

Neighbors asked me how much I wanted, told them nothing and to call if I could be of help

Cool! 

[hitech]

There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

The article describes a lot of what I was posting about my questions on lock downs.

HiTech

[Vulcan]

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

The article describes a lot of what I was posting about my questions on lock downs.

HiTech

We are doing pretty well in NZ with lock down. Our Covid19 new detections are dropping off rapidly, we're down to 4 or 5 new per day. Deaths are low (12 people out a ~5.5 mill population). Nearly all the deaths are related to rest home clusters with over 70 year olds with health complications.

[Busher]

We are doing pretty well in NZ with lock down. Our Covid19 new detections are dropping off rapidly, we're down to 4 or 5 new per day. Deaths are low (12 people out a ~5.5 mill population). Nearly all the deaths are related to rest home clusters with over 70 year olds with health complications.

I would like to ask... It seems in Canada that opposing politicians who are usually at one another's throats, are now quite united in their actions to fight and contain this disease. Is it similar in New Zealand?