Well, what do you reckon the stock market will do this year?

[Eagler]

See rule #14

[RotBaron]

twitter twaatters   are down ~15% since...

 

[Puma44]

“Dive,Dive. This is not a drill!”

[BoilerDown]

For one day, the market hasn't moved up on inauguration day like yesterday in 36 years.  364 more to go, I know.

[Brooke]

I think next up, $15 trillion M1.

[zack1234]

I'm thinking it will be down somewhat for a bit, then will pick back up.  Not at last years pace but generally be a positive market.

It will be good for Chinese workers

[NatCigg]

(Image removed from quote.)

I think next up, $15 trillion M1.

What does this suggest?

Are we to expect inflation?  All that money and I got how much? ~3000$ iirc.

[Eagler]

See rule #14

[LCADolby]

Well, what do you reckon the stock market will do this year?

Crash

[Hajo]

What will happen to the market this year?  It will mostly depend on the consumer.  If we purchase big ticket items, Houses, automobiles and appliances and increase employment to the level of pre-covid we should be good to go.  It depends what our new president does with his pen.  He already halted the construction of the XL pipeline which pissed off Canada.  How many jobs lost there? How many satellite jobs will be lost not including those building it.  I guess maybe we won't be self sufficient in energy? Is he going to nail the Coal Industry?  How President  and Congress effects industry and jobs will be what to keep an eye on.?  The stock market will react to matters like this.  Will he raise taxes?  I don't know.  If the faith of the every day consumer in the economy lessens less investment and less spending by the every day consumer.  For those of us retired we had very good years the last four years.  401Ks' and IRAs' did very well.  Investing spurs growth if positive.  If the President wishes to shoot prosperity it is his right.  And if new laws governing spending and investment are negative it will have affect on the economy..  When Congress enacts legislation sometimes liberties are taken away.  For example coal and Oil, to name a few.

So.........we will wait to see.  If the consumer spends and the unemployment levels before Covid are attained the economy (stock market) will do well..  If the economy backs off because the faith of the consumer drops, we are in trouble. Manufacturing and investing will fall off also. A bad economic outlook by the consumer because of loss of jobs means less manufactured goods which means lay offs.

We're going to see what the President does.  We are going to have to wait to see what Congress does.  In my area two large companies are just starting (Lordstown Ohio) manufacturing electric trucks and a new GM Battery Plant is being built also.  It's a wait and see what the market will do.  Depends on Congress and the President.  If the economy tanks purchasing power by the consumer tanks along with it.  That will have a direct effect on manufactured and purchased goods  as well as drop in jobs.  Higher taxes will mean less spending by the consumer   In other words we'll have to wait and see.  Because of Covid, small businesses are already getting slammed.  We don't need new laws and regulations that can make this worse.

The jury is out.  As I said we will have to wait and see.

[Mano]

good post Hajo

 

[Brooke]

What does this suggest?

Are we to expect inflation?  All that money and I got how much? ~3000$ iirc.

We already have lots of inflation in stocks, bonds, and real estate.  Also (at least in Washington State) lots of inflation in prices of health insurance, health care, education, groceries, restaurant food, plumber, landscaper, electrician, etc.  Also seeing it in graphics cards, CPU's, power supplies, and joysticks.

It's hard to predict the market because the market now depends heavily on what a few people in a closed room decide (i.e., the Fed).

My guess -- and it is only a guess -- is lots more printing of money, which normally would continue to produce higher stocks, bonds, and real estate.  (Call this "Case A".)

At some point, though, I think (B) prices need a very large correction or (C) inflation solves it by taking real return of stocks, bonds, and real estate into negative territory (i.e., assets still go up, but inflation is yet higher, so real return is negative).

I have no idea when or if that will be, and have been completely wrong since 2015.

If (A) occurs, then stocks, bonds, and real estate are still the best investments; and cash sucks.  But if (B) occurs, cash is best; and everything else sucks.  If (C) occurs, gold, silver, and commodities are best; and other stuff sucks.

I've been biased toward B and C and thus have lost out on a lot of A.  My thought process might not be very good on all of this, but I feel like stocks are a game of hot potato, where the potato is a lit stick of dynamite.

[Maverick]

Personally I expect the market to drop, quite a bit. I expect taxes will be raised, in some cases dramatically and that will chill investment including manufacturing restructuring. I expect to see big ticket demand fall as well for the same reason. The only industry I see maintaining itself in the near future is the ammunition and firearm business but if the outrageous taxes I expect to be levied on both firearms and ammunition, to include reloading components comes to pass the demand will dry up in short order.

I have made all of the large purchases we expected to make in the near future. I did an extention on the house for the wife at the end of 2019 beginning of 2020. Last December I got her a new car. Outside of normal household maintenance purchase the purse strings are shut. Fortunately my high investment annuity is already matured and locked in at value. I have a minor ira and expect to see that pretty much crash and burn dropping in value at least 20% in the next 12 to 18 months.

Please note that I am hopeful I am wrong but seriously doubt I am.

I am also grateful the pension plan I am enjoying took some hard hits at the beginning of the 2008 administration and restructured to even grow a bit during those 8 years. The last 4 helped propel it to a good position but it is also helped being funded by municipal / state employment co pays. If the expected defunding of Law Enforcement happens as it was "promised" that will shrink due to fewer LEO's being employed.

I do not expect any meaningful raises in my Army pension due to cuts in DOD funding.

[Meatwad]

[DmonSlyr]

As long as taxes continue to go up, rampant price increase artificial inflation will occur. Thats what is happening on the west coast. Pretty soon will we be taking out loans to buy groceries. I pay for bags, I pay for bottles, and they just passed a hidden sales in Oregon now called the CAT tax, which isn't suppose to be passed on to customers, but businesses just increased their price to compensate. Mine did thats how I know. We have to pay more for a terrorism tax and our workers compensation just went up about 5 points. Along with property tax increases, public transportation increases, parks and rec tax increases. We are basically being nickled and dimed for everything. As inflation increases, the dollar is worth less, we are making less because of tax increases, and more homeless are trashing the streets than ever before.

Welcome to New india.

I have to believe a massive correction is coming sooner than later.