The Great Unwinding

[Brooke]

https://www.businessinsider.com/debunking-common-arguments-against-15-minimum-wage-2021-2

"The debate about the effect increases in the minimum wage have on employment is ongoing. Some studies find either no or only a small effect (here and here, for example), while others find significant effects (here and here). A study recently published in the American Economic Review provides new evidence that increases in the minimum wage reduce employment in the long run."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adammillsap/2018/09/28/how-higher-minimum-wages-impact-employment/?sh=51a1974a1e7d

[guncrasher]

2019 article.

New American way of life, get on board.

For a guy and his girlfriend with two kids, all you have to do is follow these proven steps.
1. dont marry her !!!!
2. always use your moms address to get your mail.
3. The guy buys a house.
4. the guy rents out the house to his girlfriend and two kids.
5. Section 8 will pay 900 a month for a 3 bedroom home.
6. girlfriend signs up for obama care so the guy doesnt have to pay  for family insurance.
7. girl gets to go to college for free being a single mother.
8. girl gets a free cell phone
9. guy moves into the house and uses his moms address for mail
10. giirl and the guy file separately on their tax forms so both claim head of household and  get 1800 a piece credit
11. girlfriend claims disability for having a bad back or ?? And gets 1400 a month from SSI
This plan is totally legal  and is being executed by a whole lot of people.

A married couple with a stay at home mom gets 0 dollars.
An unmarried couple with a stay at home mom nets 16200 disability
10800 in free housing
6000 free obama care
4800 free utilities
6000 pell grant money to spend
plus 12000 a year in college tuition
plus 8800 tax benifit

I have a cousin inlaw that played this game, didn't work for 20 years, three kids plus alimony

last time section 8 was open was in 2019 for 3 weeks.  before then it was 2015.   that's in the county i live in, in california.  now the waiting list is several years and that if, you make it to the waiting list. then somebody has to drop off the list to actually get a voucher.

now meanwhile the county is pretty aggressive at getting child support.  la county is even worst.  they will come after you and trust me at 10% interest rate that child support gets pretty expensive.  I know I went thru it.  my first wife's family worked for the child support division.  if she so much as bought a chewing gum for my kids, I paid for it.

so your girlfriend wont report you so she can get section 8 is pretty much slim to none.  she will come after your house, that's what I would do.  1/2 section 8 housing is used up by senior citizens, they have preference.  as for gf getting disability for having a bad back, guess you never applied for ssi.  tough to get, you can be in a wheelchair but if you dont see a doctor, it's automatic denial.

that girlfriend you posted about would be better off, just getting child support, now that I would believe.  hell she owns 1/2 your house, why go thru the trouble of getting caught and going to jail, when she can just sue you for child support and take your house and sell it. now that is a more believable story.

semp

[CptTrips]

2019 article.

New American way of life, get on board.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/new-american-way-life/

[guncrasher]

"The debate about the effect increases in the minimum wage have on employment is ongoing. Some studies find either no or only a small effect (here and here, for example), while others find significant effects (here and here). A study recently published in the American Economic Review provides new evidence that increases in the minimum wage reduce employment in the long run."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adammillsap/2018/09/28/how-higher-minimum-wages-impact-employment/?sh=51a1974a1e7d

then why not everyone take a pay cut, it will reduce unemployment  and lower the cost of living.  how much do you suggest 10, 20 percent less income?  would you take that pay cut?

semp

[Eagler]

I think we all know someone who has worked the system..

Person in my case has mental issues and she couldn't hold a job for more than 6 months without quitting or getting herself fired.

Her daughter is headed down the same path

As this is a rinse and repeat procedure after decades they have it figured out.

Have to believe the majority of today's issues start in the ole noggin that is as sick as it has ever been

Mental health should start in elementary school with periods of meditation and calming physical activities such as yoga and tai chi IMO

Eagler

[Shuffler]

why do you think McDonald's cant find enough people?  or burger king as a matter of fact.  nobody wants to work there anymore.  around here employees are in short supply and they dont have to beg for more money.  employers beg employees to come work for them.  department stores have employees that look so young they probably dont have a driver's license.  ever talked to one of them.  they're happy, very helpful. I have spoken to some of them, they're glad they dont have to work at 3.35 an hour like I did when I was in highschool. they're saving for college or get a car, they have dreams and they all say I wont be here forever.

they're parents are making more money, housing is in short supply due to how many people have moved here.  there's companies offering 1k or 1.5 sign in bonus payed after 2 months.  employees are not worried anymore in the sense I cant afford to quit.  employers are worried that they cant afford to lose employees so do what they can to keep them.

employees know they can just quit and get a new job a couple of days later if they arent treated right.  that what I see in several local groups I belong to.  people networking or talking about companies that wont treat employees right.  they are trying to do their jobs right, but they arent afraid to quit anymore.

my mother never worked higher than minimum wage, after highschool I never worked minimum wage.  my kids after high school have never worked minimum wage.  on the other hand I have never looked down on anybody working minimum wage.  you got a job, you work hard, you cool with me.

next time before you say people like to live on hand outs, please research how much money they get on handouts.  around here you are lucky if you get 50 bucks a month, unless you have children and even then you wont get much.  you can get food stamps but that's about it.  section 8 housing hasnt been opened in like 6 years.  will take you probably 10 years to get into it.  hardly you can call that living on handouts.


semp

Semp you are an ok guy but you live in a bubble.

[Brooke]

then why not everyone take a pay cut, it will reduce unemployment  and lower the cost of living.  how much do you suggest 10, 20 percent less income?  would you take that pay cut?

semp

Changing things in any direction -- up or down -- from what a free market sets is what causes problems.

Mandating that an employee make at least $x or at most $y are both bad economically.

[guncrasher]

Semp you are an ok guy but you live in a bubble.

no actually live in real world.  my wife tried for years to get ssi, she kept getting declined. I have tried too, it's gonna take years to get it. and I have documented history going back 10 years.  I've already been declined. it's not just show up and get approved.

I've already checked on these handouts you guys keep talking about. don't seem to find the office. my social worker always laughs when I ask about these special handouts that will provide enough to live on.

are there people who take advantage? absolutely, but those are the exception and they keep getting caught and going to jail.

actually know a girl 40s never had a job and applied for unemployment in 2020. she got 3 months in jail plus she needs to pay everything back.

semp

[morfiend]

no actually live in real world.  my wife tried for years to get ssi, she kept getting declined. I have tried too, it's gonna take years to get it. and I have documented history going back 10 years.  I've already been declined. it's not just show up and get approved.

I've already checked on these handouts you guys keep talking about. don't seem to find the office. my social worker always laughs when I ask about these special handouts that will provide enough to live on.

are there people who take advantage? absolutely, but those are the exception and they keep getting caught and going to jail.

actually know a girl 40s never had a job and applied for unemployment in 2020. she got 3 months in jail plus she needs to pay everything back.

semp

 Ya but…….  As they used to say the grass is always greener on the other side!


   When I was a kid if I had a dollar I ruled the world, I got a 2 dollar a week allowance which was about 4 or 5 times what most my friends got but I also worked which I started to do at 9 years old and it was for min wages of a buck an hour. During the school year I only worked 24 to 30 hours per week but during summer break I had to put in the 40 hours as it was a family run business and that didn’t include household chores which were expected.

 Yesterday I saw a help wanted sign, starting wage was 22 bucks per hour and up to 34 bucks depending on experience and this was for a labourers position with a construction company. Why??? Because that type work is in demand but people waste their money going to school to study the difference between the European swallow and African swallow and just how many coconuts they can carry.  I get it though it’s much more fun to,party at school than to actually do something constructive,just like it’s easier to scream and shout about takers than to do anything about it.



 <S>

[Eagler]

The exercise bike factory black mirror episode keeps coming to mind...

I think if it had a free day care and McDonald's it would work!

All those green save the earth ppl can provide us electricity while burning off their big macs and keeping their bmi in spec

Eagler

[Eagler]

Good numbers today and the market drops..
Why?
Because they know such news will continue rate hikes and qt

What a bunch of crooks

Eagler

[CptTrips]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/06/01/regression-to-trend-131-above-trend-in-may?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Dshort+Daily+Digest+2022-06-02+5859&bt_ee=oobmY%2BYf%2BaxEIeyNg7maNFCSXNoU%2BW4Ee%2BymHbNwU0McWAhfdKViYsk/W%2BRtS/Z8&bt_ts=1654174308867

Woe be to anyone over 40 yo investing in the market to reach retirement or in retirement with any percentage invested in stocks as part of their income that doesn't consider this chart VERY carefully. 

This is not going to be a standard business cycle downturn that you ride out and be fine.  This is possibly going to be the most cataclysmic economic event of our nations history.  People will have their lives destroyed over this.  Maybe even people not even invested.  Few are going to avoid being touched by this.

I used to feel slightly embarrassed suggesting the SP could drop as low as 2000.  I may still have been too optimistic.  Just easing down to trend would be more like 1800-1400 range.  But as you see from this chart, historically massive drops overshoot trend before floating back up.  So how low can we ultimately go?  SP 1000?  And some of these cycles take a decade or more to even get back to trend.

Look at these extreme peaks and project over to see how long it took to get back to breakeven from the peak. 

Make you own call and decide how best to position yourself, just please don't sleep walk into these propeller blades. 

P.S. Bonds are not much better.  Real-estate is a bad play too IMHO.  Gold?  Meh.  I started going that way and got back out last Dec.  Just didn't have any conviction.  You are guaranteed a loss of about 8% in cash, but that might look unimaginably preferable by the time this thing has run it's course. 

I'm short the market so I make money when it drops, but that is not something I would recommend to anyone else as it is very high risk. 

This is the worst environments I have even ever studied exactly because there are no counter investments to hide in.

You can maybe profit big if you can swallow high risk.  Maybe losing big.
You can find relative safety at the guaranteed (but limited) cost of about 8% loss.
You can risk much higher losses with little chance of gain through various other risk assets.
Annuities?  Meh.  I'd rather take the hit on cash and have my liquidity to react to some opportunity.
PM?  Meh.  I just have no conviction there.
Bitcoin?  Digital tulips. 

Don't get mesmerized by the daily fluctuations or worse the sucker rallies. Understand the macro trend and where this thing is being ultimately pulled to.  Center of gravity.  This won't unwind in a day or weeks or months.  This will probably be on-going over the next year.

Ooooff.  I miss the late eighties-2000.   

[Eagler]

They will drown out the less than the super rich with record inflation before they let the country drop into a serious recession/depression IMO..

They are hoping now just to get rates up and money pulled out with qt so they can then rinse and repeat the next bubble cycle with decreases in rates and the restart of qe...free money!

The question is will they be able to do that to any meaningful level before they have to reverse course prematurely..

Eagler

[Arlo]

no actually live in real world.  my wife tried for years to get ssi, she kept getting declined. I have tried too, it's gonna take years to get it. and I have documented history going back 10 years.  I've already been declined. it's not just show up and get approved.

I've already checked on these handouts you guys keep talking about. don't seem to find the office. my social worker always laughs when I ask about these special handouts that will provide enough to live on.

are there people who take advantage? absolutely, but those are the exception and they keep getting caught and going to jail.

actually know a girl 40s never had a job and applied for unemployment in 2020. she got 3 months in jail plus she needs to pay everything back.

semp

[Eagler]

The poor are not the problem IMO...printing 40$ billion dollars and sending it to what will probably turn out to be a lost cause while stating social security will go insolvent in less than 15 years is a much larger issue...

Then again we are back to the lower end of society as changes to SS will affect the poor the most..

Eagler