His insight on China is in line with many other authors concerning the ultimate failure of the CCP and their struggle to stay in power. Massive unemployment and
food shortages are a very real possibility. I hope that does not happen. No one including him really knows if there is a successor available should Xi Jinping succumb to hostile forces in the party or from outside. An outside force might replace him and then it becomes academic.
As he states it is likely many provinces will go independent like Xinjiang and Shanghai should that happen. The Uyghurs live in the Xinjiang region.
As far as Russia, the entire world knows Russia cannot afford the war with the Ukraine because they have a tiny economy and they depend
on the export of petroleum and gas, and manufactured goods from the west. He believes there is a high probability there will be a regime change soon.
Shortages of food and manufactured goods will hurt the Russian people. No one wants to see anyone suffer. He does give insight into the regime's thought process.
He has access to this information is because he contracts with the Defense Department.
He also mentions battery cells for electric vehicles but does admit to knowing very little about cell chemistry. If you did not study chemistry in college
nor do research in chemistry this is a very difficult topic to understand.
Some battery makers no longer use Co or very little, and many have started using LFP batteries and other chemistries are evolving because of their cost savings. He attempts to lump all battery makers into one category as being polluters for the environment. His intel is pretty old. He does not differentiate between battery makers like CATL and BYD in China who get their electricity from coal fired generators, but even that is changing rapidly as China finds ways to get rid of their air pollution. Other producers like LG Chem in Korea, Panasonic in Japan (and USA), and Tesla in the USA are nothing like their counterparts in China. If you have seen pictures of Tesla's battery factory in Nevada you will notice solar panels on the roof, the absence of any smoke stacks of any kind, and the proximity to Hoover Dam Hydroelectric plant as another source of their energy. Tesla also produces batteries in Lathrop, CA and Austin, TX. These new plants are just going online.
Cell chemistry is evolving rapidly and he does not have any access to this information because those that do the research do not share this info openly. As patents
are recorded they often have very broad non specific ingredients listed to avoid letting their competition learn their process of manufacturing.
He does mention China has trouble doing their own R and D, and often copy or backward engineer a product to save time and money. That
hurts a company in the long run if they do not do their own research.
If Chile strip mines their Li, no one is going to tell the Chileans how to extract the Li from their mines. As better more efficient techniques come out, Chile
will adapt to the new ways of obtaining Li.
Many battery makers will find ways to eliminate the use of Li and Co in the very near future and lower costs, increase energy density, as well as increasing
recharge speeds. There are questions about children being exploited in the mining of Co as well.
The battery evolution has just begun. Look how fast the television changed over the decades. Are there any non flat tv's left?
Cell phones have turned into powerful computers. We may see in the next decade car batteries that recharge in a few minutes.
His take on climate change is somewhat skewed. He did not mention that our sun has more effect on the climate than all other factors combined. I agree we do need
to focus on removing all pollutants from the air we breath, and clean up our streams, rivers and oceans. Telling people CO2 is our enemy is silly. Nurseries use CO2 tanks to promote growth of plants because plants respire CO2 and produce Oxygen as their waste. Our enemy is the Nitrous Oxides, Sulfur Oxides, Carbon monoxide and many others as these molecules contaminate our environment. Pollutants in our streams from manufacturing plants needs to be monitored and corrected.
The earths climate will change a lot and go to many extremes I am sure, but I have not observed any changes to the water level along the coastline since I have been alive.
If there has been a change I would guess inches or centimeters only. The samples taken from the polar ice caps are a great source of intel on the changing of the climate
of our planet earth. Avoid FUD and do your own research. Science journals with peer review are the best source of information. If the authors provide a non conflict of interest
statement that is even better.
my two cents.
