2023 hurricane season

[MiloMorai]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/topstories/expect-a-busy-2023-hurricane-season-due-to-record-atlantic-temps-noaa-says/ar-AA1f6t6s

The slower onset of El Niño and record-breaking warm ocean temperatures may lead to a busier than normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday.

In its annual hurricane update that comes in August after an initial May outlook, NOAA increased the likelihood that there will be an "above normal" hurricane season to 60 per cent, up from a 30 per cent chance in May.

The agency said there could be 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are ones that reach Category 3 to 5 and have winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. It gave a 25 per cent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, down from 40 per cent, and a 15 per cent chance of below normal. The forecast is given with 70 per cent confidence.

Will the predictions come true?

[Chris79]

As of right now the Atlantic Ocean is extraordinarily hostile to tropical cyclones. That is subject to chance, especially in September, but warm SST’s are just one ingredient in tropical cyclone formation.

[Chris79]

Here is day 10 of the ECMWF “euro model”.

[Chris79]

Those images are the 200-850mb wind shear and relative humidity respectively.
For the shear image, any color from dark blue to red will rip apart any cyclone that is forming or has already formed. The bottom image, relative, relative humidity, any color from light sand to brown is not conducive for tropical cyclones.
You will notice a 1005mb low south of Puerto Rico and 1010mb low by the Cape Verde Islands. Those entities, most likely tropical depressions, will probably not develop much due to the hostile environment.

[Chris79]

As for NOAA’s predictions, whether or not 14 to 21 storms actually form, I will damn near guarantee that NOAA/NHC, will name at least 14 storms.

[-gg-]

these normal weather cycles can be so shocking

[Chris79]

these normal weather cycles can be so shocking

Being a Floridian for 33 years this is the most unique pattern I remember. The rainy season is stunted due to the mid/upper level winds being more westerly then easterly. The lack of rain/thunderstorms/cloud cover has caused to GoM SSTs to run significantly above seasonal mean, ~4f.

[knorB]

Being a Floridian for 33 years this is the most unique pattern I remember. The rainy season is stunted due to the mid/upper level winds being more westerly then easterly. The lack of rain/thunderstorms/cloud cover has caused to GoM SSTs to run significantly above seasonal mean, ~4f.

Here it has been unseasonably wet.

[Chris79]

Here it has been unseasonably wet.

East Coast?

[knorB]

East Coast?

TN, usually very wet spring followed by a mostly dry and hot summer.  This summer has been one rain event after another.

[Chris79]

This one may get interesting. Looks like shear is going to lighten up, the waters are nice and warm, there is a bit of dry air aloft in the northern gulf however. It looks as though a center is starting to form around 20n and 85.5w a little further east then originally forecasted. The less interaction with land it has originally will affect its intensity later on.

[RUSH1]

This one may get interesting. Looks like shear is going to lighten up, the waters are nice and warm, there is a bit of dry air aloft in the northern gulf however. It looks as though a center is starting to form around 20n and 85.5w a little further east then originally forecasted. The less interaction with land it has originally will affect its intensity later on.

We need the rain.   

[Eagler]

We need the rain.

We sure do..good thing it usually follows dry hot spurts

August will go down as record heat which will be used to push the agenda

Best bogeyman ever!

Eagler

[Meatwad]

All the weather patterns that allowed these things to happen are all 100% ignored. Its never about how the forecast models predicted high pressure or low pressure to build and trap air/frontal systems and air boundaries, etc. Its always claimed as sudden surprise "came out of nowhere, not forecast, nobody ever seen this coming.  But the agenda has been carefully worded so ANY weather event on this planet can be used to push it.

[icepac]

Reminds me of the 2005 season.