Author Topic: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round  (Read 1518 times)

Offline AKIron

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2023, 10:40:01 PM »
For an on-going concern , with steady growth, one might consider paying 5 times annual revenue.

In it's current state, you'd be nuts to pay more that 3 times annual revenue.

I'll and guess 1000 subscriptions?  No growth in subs.  Slowly evaporating clientele.

The problem is what you have is called an elevator asset.  A large percent of the company value would go down the elevator and out the building when HT left.

So two year maintenance contract would have to be included at a reasonable salary.

Wrap it all up.  Some Kentucky windage....mmmmmmmmmm $800,000.

I only got 28 bucks on me, tho.

Now HT would not sell for that.  But Buyers and Sellers often have different perspectives on value.

So how do we judge?  Just what HT would take?  Or what a rational buyer might offer?

I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.
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Offline AKIron

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2023, 10:42:12 PM »
But how about those Cowboys? Their Defense was punishing, like an army of fire ants.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2023, 11:18:42 PM »
i think i once heard ah say if he sold ah he would walk away.  so no to the maintenance contract.

Then it would lose significant value.


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Offline Dadtallica

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2023, 11:20:07 PM »
I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.

You’re right but there is also a price to pay for something that has unique qualities never matched. Yes?
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Offline GasTeddy

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2023, 07:23:02 AM »
You’re right but there is also a price to pay for something that has unique qualities never matched. Yes?

Emotional value, I'd say. Like my vehicles, they are more family members than objects. Even they are not living creatures.

Offline Dadtallica

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2023, 07:49:54 AM »
Maybe you are thinking of Air Warrior, which was sold to Electronic Arts and after they bought it, they shut it down. That is where many of us came from.

I came along shortly after those days. What did EA do or not do that they just shut it down?
Back in 2022 after a loooooong break from 2010. Old name Ratpack, same for the BBS.

Squad I did the most tours with were the Excaliburs then The 172nd Rabid Dogs. Still trying to talk Illigaf, Coola, Oldman22, and Joecrow into coming back instead of being boring old farts!

Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2023, 09:12:52 AM »
You’re right but there is also a price to pay for something that has unique qualities never matched. Yes?

Not if someone is buying it as a business.  The only thing that matters is the numbers.  Revenue, profit margin, growth rate.

Now if you get some rich person who wants to throw money away on a vanity hobby toy, they might overpay based "uniqueness".  But from a business standpoint uniqueness is irrelevant until it directly contributes to profit.  It is a tyranny of numbers.  But if you are going to dream about a rich guy who is willing overpay for uniqueness,  you might as well dream that HT just wins the Texas Mega-Millions drawing and has the money to staff up and take the game to his ultimate dream with a team of 20 programmers and 10 digital artists.  If you want to dream, dream big. ;)

You can even by a knowing failing business as long as the numbers are right.  Even a failing business can have a sufficient tail on the life cycle curve to squeeze profit out of if the buying prices was right.  If there are any severable assets that could sold off at the end is a cherry on top.  But the price has to be right to make it attractive.  Many a failing company has been  bought, squeezed hard for a couple of years, then stripped for parts.  HT has already taken the first step.  The first thing a buyer would do is eliminate the staff down to bare skeleton needed to milk out the last couple of years.  Assuming that you are only milking the tail, you would stop all money wasted on advertising or new development.  It would be all about slashing cost and maximizing remaining return.



« Last Edit: September 11, 2023, 09:21:39 AM by CptTrips »
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2023, 09:29:59 AM »
I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.

Well like I said, I'm just talking out my arse.  I was being generous.  And like Dadtallica, I originally was coming up with a number in the 600k range but padded it so as not to be insulting.  Couldn't pad it up to a mil though without feeling like I was saying something I didn't believe.

However, there are a lot of subs that are stealth and only come into play an Scenario they are interested in and never play the Melee.  I've seen up to 200 on during a popular event plus Melee.  If you take some percentage that will ever only be on at one time 20%, 25%?  1000 wouldn't be wildly irrational guess.  But now way to know.  Could be as low as 500, but I was going to be generous.


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Offline Lusche

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2023, 10:05:50 AM »
However, there are a lot of subs that are stealth and only come into play an Scenario they are interested in and never play the Melee.  I've seen up to 200 on during a popular event plus Melee.  If you take some percentage that will ever only be on at one time 20%, 25%?


The percentage of pilots that show only up during special events and never in the MA (so that they don't appear in my pilot counts) is absolutely minimal, I looked into this before.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2023, 10:22:00 AM »

The percentage of pilots that show only up during special events and never in the MA (so that they don't appear in my pilot counts) is absolutely minimal, I looked into this before.

Point taken.  I know better than to challenge your numbers. ;)
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Offline Dadtallica

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2023, 11:42:01 AM »
I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.

That’s where I got the 600. 3x gross earnings is fairy standard and I tossed in some extra to make the deal lol.
Back in 2022 after a loooooong break from 2010. Old name Ratpack, same for the BBS.

Squad I did the most tours with were the Excaliburs then The 172nd Rabid Dogs. Still trying to talk Illigaf, Coola, Oldman22, and Joecrow into coming back instead of being boring old farts!

Offline Animl-AW

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2023, 12:03:07 PM »
I came along shortly after those days. What did EA do or not do that they just shut it down?

They lied, as we all predicted. They really bought it for the large player base, thinking after they shut it down we’d move to their games. Bait & switch. Promised us an overhaul, talked us techs into coming along to support it under EA, then did exactly as we thought, shut down after doing zero. I don’t even recall one update. TC may have a better memory.

Lot of us came to AH, those that didn’t know us treated us poorly, even tho we doubled the base and had a lot of experience to contribute. We got stuck twice. Just took my 3rd round. I learned quicker this time.

It was in need of a total overhaul from scratch, from what I heard, it sold for well into 7 digits.
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Offline Dadtallica

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2023, 12:07:38 PM »

Now if you get some rich person who wants to throw money away on a vanity hobby toy, they might overpay based "uniqueness".

Ask Steve Cohen how that worked out for the NY Mets.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2023, 01:04:36 PM by Dadtallica »
Back in 2022 after a loooooong break from 2010. Old name Ratpack, same for the BBS.

Squad I did the most tours with were the Excaliburs then The 172nd Rabid Dogs. Still trying to talk Illigaf, Coola, Oldman22, and Joecrow into coming back instead of being boring old farts!

Offline Max

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2023, 12:33:33 PM »
This is Dales first baby. How much would you sell your first born for?

He wrote a number of things prior to AH1. Warbirds, for instance.

Offline CptTrips

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Re: The Price is Right Aces High In The Showcase Round
« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2023, 12:34:13 PM »
That’s where I got the 600. 3x gross earnings is fairy standard and I tossed in some extra to make the deal lol.

In my estimate I was tossing in the 2yr HT maint contract too.  Did you add that?

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