Author Topic: same old - same old  (Read 1299 times)

Offline -tronski-

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« Reply #30 on: May 08, 2002, 08:49:40 AM »
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Originally posted by Eagler
" .... will cease to exist!"

another premature explosion in Israel, bombing of French diplomats convoy in Pakistan .


 They were French construction workers involved in a submarine project

 Tronsky
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Offline Eagler

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« Reply #31 on: May 08, 2002, 09:01:35 AM »
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Originally posted by -tronski-


 They were French construction workers involved in a submarine project

 Tronsky


my mistake then, does that make it any less of an evil murderous act?
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Offline -tronski-

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« Reply #32 on: May 08, 2002, 09:12:56 AM »
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owever, take into consideration that the UN has pledged to defend Israels borders before. Once before the 1967 war (that time they did not do anything when the Egyptians broke all agreements and began remilitarizing the Sinai) and once in Lebanon (that time they didnt do anyting when the Hezbollah attacked IDF troops or civlians. Besides, I dont think Israel trusts anyone but themselves to defend their borders.


 That was in '67

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What exactly do you mean when you say "international city"?


Jerusalem turned over to the UN, and administrated by the international community. Divided into sectarian sectors if need be.

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The UN commisioning an arbitration council to settle water rights and immigration problems? So what happens when the two parties dont reach any agreement? Or what happens when the council rules in one way or the other? Do you think the losing part will just say "fine then, at least we tried"?
 

As opposed to settling for a stalemate?    
At least, if independance could be maintained, arbitration would being doing something for the regions problems and forcing decisions on those not willing to make any.

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As for the Settlers, they wont move. For some reason unbeknownst to me these guys value that land more than their own life. The Israeli government would then be presented with the options of either leave them in place or try to move them by force, somehow I doubt any government would survive such a forced transfer.
 

Difficult decisions are the privelege of governing.
It has shown with its excesses in rooting out Palestinian gunmen in the occupied territories that the current Isreali government is quite capable of moving people against their will.

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As for ther IDF, as long as the settlers stay they will have to stay. No Israeli government would survive abandoning the settlers.
 

No settlers, no problems, no IDF

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What is left then is either to continue the way it is today (most probable) or go to an all out war (lesser probability).
 

This

'

Leads to this if  either of those options comes to fruition



Tronsky
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Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #33 on: May 08, 2002, 09:15:17 AM »
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Well, the problem with the "move the settlers"-theory is that it is the Israelis who hold the upper hand on the West Bank. And the Israeli government will never attempt to force transfer all of its citizens. The government would simply collapse. So whether you like it or not, that option is out.

All it's citizens?

There was an article in Haaretz two days ago looking at the costs.

Between 40,000 and 60,000 settlers would have to move.

Cost of providing comparable communities in Israel would be about $750 - $2000 million dollars.

More than half the settlers are non-religous, who moved there because of cheap housing and tax breaks. They should be fairly easy to tempt back. The others, about 20,000 of them, will have to be evicted by the army. However, simple expedients like cutting off their water supply will get them to move quite easily.

There will certainly be some trouble, but considering most Israelis support abandoning the settlements, I doubt it would bring down the government.

It's interesting that Arafat is expected to crack down on the Palestinians, to do Israels occupation work for it, but the Israeli government can't crack down on a few thousand settlers.

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As I have been trying to point out, there are 4 questions that are unsolveable.
Water rights
Jerusalem
Settlers
Refugees

None of these are unsolvable. Settlers can be removed.

Jerusalem was already agreed, with a few minor differences. The Israelis agreed to have the Western half, the Arabs the east. Both will move their respective capitals there.

The Palestinians recognize the right of return is impossible, and are pushing for a compensation package instead. Evacuated settlements would form part of that compensation package. Offer a refugee the chance of an Israeli settler home and they will jump at it.

Water is a sticking point. However, Israel is using more water than the reserves allow anyway. Desalination plants are going to have to be set up.

Desalination costs around $1 per cubic metre, and the price is expected  to fall. Current Israeli consumption is about 380 litres daily per capita. Providing all Israel's supply by desalination would cost 38c per person per day. Somewhere between 1 and 1.5 billion dollars a year.

Israel spends far more than that policing the West Bank, not to mention the damage to the tourist industry etc the violence brings.

It really all comes down to the settlers in the end. The two sides cannot live together. Israel will not give the Palestinians equal rights in the West Bank, and the Israelis are never going to feel safe living amongst Palestinians.

Offline -tronski-

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« Reply #34 on: May 08, 2002, 09:17:32 AM »
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Originally posted by Eagler


my mistake then, does that make it any less of an evil murderous act?


No, but it does change the context

 Tronsky
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Offline Hortlund

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« Reply #35 on: May 08, 2002, 09:23:41 AM »
Tronski, you are a sick diddly posting pictures like that. It was not nice talking to you. Good bye.

Offline -tronski-

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« Reply #36 on: May 08, 2002, 09:30:59 AM »
What, did you think this was about fighting over a game of monopoly or something?

 These pics arent from rotten.com, open the lead story @ the bbc news  Arafat orders end to terrorist attacks and theres the picture of the Tel Aviv bombing right at the beginning.

Sorry if I offended you, I didnt realise you had such a weak stomach to a little reality on a subject you post so often about.
 
 BBC NEWS
« Last Edit: May 08, 2002, 09:57:00 AM by -tronski- »
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Offline Eagler

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« Reply #37 on: May 08, 2002, 10:38:52 AM »
-tronski-

I don't think the bomber in your lower picture had his trigger finger in the same position as the Israeli soldier does here:


talk about context, too bad the cameraman didn't zoom out and get who/what the soldier has his rifle trained on eh?
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Offline Udie

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« Reply #38 on: May 08, 2002, 11:16:29 AM »
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Originally posted by Staga

Pretty much same thing Nazies did in ww2.




  Exactly the same especialy when you think of all the Jewish homicide bombers back in Germany in the 1930's :rolleyes:

Offline Hortlund

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« Reply #39 on: May 08, 2002, 11:56:35 AM »
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Originally posted by -tronski-
What, did you think this was about fighting over a game of monopoly or something?

 These pics arent from rotten.com, open the lead story @ the bbc news  Arafat orders end to terrorist attacks and theres the picture of the Tel Aviv bombing right at the beginning.

Sorry if I offended you, I didnt realise you had such a weak stomach to a little reality on a subject you post so often about.
 
 BBC NEWS  


Hey toejamhead. Someone died in that picture. The same picutre you are using trying to score some cheap point with or whatever.

It aint the picture that pisses me off, it is how you use it, and for what purpose.

Enough of this. Consider yourself squelched.

Offline Staga

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« Reply #40 on: May 08, 2002, 10:23:09 PM »
Would you call Tronski a toejamhead if he would post a pic of destroyed building in Jenin/Ramallah/Shabra/Shatila with some red stuff on the floor? Propably not  :)

Offline Hortlund

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« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2002, 03:06:13 AM »
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Originally posted by Staga
Would you call Tronski a toejamhead if he would post a pic of destroyed building in Jenin/Ramallah/Shabra/Shatila with some red stuff on the floor? Propably not  :)


Apparently you didnt read the post directly above yours. Well, I guess I shouldnt expect too much.

I'll try it again. It aint the picture in itself that pisses me off. Its how he used it to try to score some cheap point or whatever.

This [picture of soldier] leads to this [picture of a suicide bombing].

Apparently he must be under the impression that we all are incapable of coherent thought, and he feels a need to explain stuff with pictures.

I would never post a picture of Yasser Arafat and a picture of some dead guy in Jenin and caption it "This leads to this" or whatever. It is sick, disrespectful and it is tasteless.

As for your implications, I'm kinda puzzled...exactly what are you implying?

Offline StSanta

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« Reply #42 on: May 09, 2002, 05:05:38 AM »
Nashwan, interesting post. I've always thought the situation down there could be solved if there were will to do so. You've argued well for suggesting this is true.

Am wondering what would have to happen to realize these things in real life? Under Barak, the Israelis compromised and compromised. For the Palestinians, it was not enough.

The Israeli people responded by electing a hawk, one firmly set upon no compromises.

If the Israeli people compromise and give something up, yet aren't given anything in response but more suicide bombers, why should they compromise?

The idea is this; there'll always be a good deal of islamic fundamentalists in the region. Even if the majority of Palestinians were convinced to accepting a peace deal, these nutters would still blow up themselves and women, children and men with them. Why compromise?

To lower the rate of these incidents. Now, the risk is; the Israelis compromise. Suicide bomb attacks become more infrequent - but not infrequent enough.

Israel has given up their bargaining chips, and will have to resort to violence to retake them. And the situation will turn even worse.

Then there's the fact that orthodox Jews are starting to outnumber secular Israelis. Secular israelis get about two kids per family - orthodox Jews get eight or nine. In less than 50 years, orthodox Jews will have a democratic majority. They'll then send the secular Jews out to war (since orthodox Jews are exempt from military service, because they study their holy scripture).

Not very nice long term perspective. There is a deadline for settling this dispute peacefully.

If the Palestinians stopped their suicide bombs, they'd lose some publicity for their cause, true. But, they'd gain sympathy. I cannot side with the Palestinians when 73% of them think suicide bombs are ok. Had they not used these tactics,  world opinion would be on their side. On the other hand, terrorist dees took  Arafat from a low level terrorist to the leader of an exiled people.

Why aren't Palestinians setting off bombs in Jordan though? I mean, aren't they also occupying Palestinian territory?

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #43 on: May 09, 2002, 09:35:03 AM »
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Under Barak, the Israelis compromised and compromised. For the Palestinians, it was not enough.

Barak offered very few compromises.

Almost no settlements would be abandoned. Israel would control the water supplies. (Israelis have 380 litres of water per person per day, the Palestinians are allowed 70)

Israel would control external borders. The West Bank would be split up into several sections, with Israeli zones of control between each.

Israel ruled out the right of return, so all the Palestinian refugees who were born in Israel, and who own land and property there, couldn't return to claim it.

Any issues affecting both Palestine and Israel were to be decided by Israel alone, with no Palestinian say.

Israeli compromises were very very few. The Palestinians would be allowed to set up their capital in East Jerusalem. The Palestinians would recieve 95% of the West Bank, although much of that would be occupied by Israel for an unspecified period.

As a deal, it wasn't one any Palestinian leader could have sold to his people.

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Then there's the fact that orthodox Jews are starting to outnumber secular Israelis. Secular israelis get about two kids per family - orthodox Jews get eight or nine. In less than 50 years, orthodox Jews will have a democratic majority. They'll then send the secular Jews out to war (since orthodox Jews are exempt from military service, because they study their holy scripture).

Orthodox Jews don't tend to work either. They are a burden Israel can't afford to keep at that sort of level.

One group inside Israel breeds faster than the Orthodox, and that's Israeli Arabs. In 50 years, the Arabs will be approaching a majority inside Israel.

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On the other hand, terrorist dees took Arafat from a low level terrorist to the leader of an exiled people.

Yes, and Menachim Begin, and David Ben-Gurion, and Yitzhak Shamir, and Ariel Sharon. All of them have carried terrorist attacks, all became Prime Minister of Israel. The history of the area over the last 100 years shows terrorism works.

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Why aren't Palestinians setting off bombs in Jordan though? I mean, aren't they also occupying Palestinian territory?

The key difference, and the reason that Palestinians haven't hated Jordan, is that they had similar rights to the Jordanians. In the West Bank, Palestinians have few rights. No vote, subject to military justice, reduced water supplies etc.

In Jordan, the Palestinians were given Jordanian citizenship.

Palestinians in the West Bank would jump at the chance of Israeli citizenship. Israel could end the problem overnight by annexing the West Bank and making the Arabs who live there citizens of Israel. Israeli Arabs suffer a lot of discrimination, but they are still very well off compared to the Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza.

Israel can't do that of course, because it would mean the Palestinians would have equal political power in Israel with the Jews.

Offline Nashwan

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« Reply #44 on: May 09, 2002, 09:40:06 AM »
The latest oinion poll in Israel shows what the Israelis think needs to be done to improve the situation:

In the poll, 59 percent of those questioned said they believed a unilateral withdrawal of troops and settlers from the West Bank and Gaza Strip would lead to the renewal of the peace process while 72 percent felt it would improve the country's international standing.

Only 42 percent of respondents said the continuous presence of the Israeli army in Palestinian cities gave them hope for the future.

The poll found that 63 percent of Israelis felt peace negotiations were necessary to resolving terrorism. The poll was conducted before Tuesday's suicide attack on a pool hall in Rishon Letzion that left 15 Israelis dead.

Most surprisingly, the poll found that 56 percent support a U.S.-led international force for the Palestinian territories. The Israel government has been reluctant to accept an international force in the area, something the Palestinians have been pushing for since fighting broke out 19 months ago. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has said he would consider a small American contingent but neither idea seems likely to take shape at the moment.
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=161786&contrassID=1&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0