Author Topic: Draughts, floods and storms...oh my. (Read 997 times)

Hangtime · « **Reply #45 on:** November 04, 2002, 09:54:54 PM »

oh.. so sorry. forgot the obligitory smiley face.

AKS\/\/ulfe · « **Reply #46 on:** November 04, 2002, 09:58:40 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Thrawn
I don't think I would even give it the wait of the word conclusion. I can draw a direct correlation between this very event and global warming.

Drastic weather is a predicted symptom of global warming. All that excess energy has to go somewhere and weather is simply the affect of solar radiation hitting the earth and heating up the atmosphere.

Nevermind, in the past one hundred years the surface of this planet has been further reshaped with the advent of cars, planes and large commercialized cities...

I wonder how much of the earth's surface was coated with concrete, asphalt and cement back in 1880.. compared to now, in 2002...
-SW

midnight Target · « **Reply #47 on:** November 04, 2002, 10:00:51 PM »

Milo is right and so is Thrawn.

THERE IS NO CONSPIRACY.

There is almost a consensus in the scientific community that man has affected the weather. How much of an effect is still up for grabs. This does not mean that you should keep your head in the sand, nor does it mean that it is time to order that 30 year supply of food and head for the bunker.

Once again an issue becomes all or nothing with little wiggle room for that snake called reason.

Kanth · « **Reply #48 on:** November 04, 2002, 10:08:26 PM »

It appears from this link that you posted..

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html

the changing climate information appears to predict more rainfall, and not less.

it appears to be saying that there will be more rainfall because it's not soaking into the ground (evaporational increase)...which leaves the soil dryer.

from the CNN article you have posted, they appear to be complaining about a draught, or lack of rainfall which goes directly against the signs of global warming.

so I would like to understand the direct correlation between draught or lack of rainfall and the symtoms of global warming (more rainfall less evaporation) as they are specified by your link.

if you could show me.

Quote

Originally posted by Thrawn

I don't think I would even give it the wait of the word conclusion. I can draw a direct correlation between this very event and global warming.

-dead- · « **Reply #49 on:** November 04, 2002, 10:16:05 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by AKS\/\/ulfe

Yes, 1Degree in 120 years... that's quite some warming!
Yes, I know... 1990-2000 were the hottest years of the past 120.... then again, what does it all matter in the end?
Third world countries keep pumping that nasty CFC, and other, toejam out... we sit here and make clean air policies and regulations only for our attempts to be nullified by those dirty, poor countries.
You can tell me that we should help them get up to standards and follow our regulations and policies, and I'll tell you at that point their lil' pollution creating piss ant country's bellybutton belongs to US! The us is any country that decides to step forth and do it...
Otherwise, "eh"...
How now brown Asian cloud?
Cleaning up the air is a lil' more important than a 1deg increase in 120 years...
-SW

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/graphics/top20_1998.gif
Lucky you're not talking about greenhouse gases: were we to bring other countries in line with US standards, regulations and policies on per capita CO2 emissions, the planet would be much worse off. China [as a prime example of a dreadful communist 3rd world piss ant polluter country] would have to produce about 500% more CO2 than it does now. India would need to increase it's CO2 emissions by about 1500%.

As to the temperature increase being unimportant - West Nile, malaria & dengue represent quite significant threats to human health - and with every fraction of a degree C increase they creep further North. Given the choice between chronic asthma/respiratory disease or dengue/malaria, I'm not sure which I'd choose - both choices suck.

Malaria in Virginia
West nile
Dengue - Aedes aegypti
Dengue also gets spread by Aedes albopictus

AKS\/\/ulfe · « **Reply #50 on:** November 04, 2002, 10:34:15 PM »

Carbon Dioxide?

Well hell, if all them third world countries would leave the rain forests alone... that wouldn't be as much of a problem.

AFAIK, this years brown cloud is called Asian because it ain't over America.
-SW

Thrawn · « **Reply #51 on:** November 04, 2002, 11:05:22 PM »

Kanth, actually it can lead to both.

"The continued addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is likely to raise the earth's average temperature by several degrees in the next century, which will in turn raise the level of the sea. Most of the United States is expected to warm, although sulfates may limit warming in some areas. Scientists currently are unable to determine which parts of the United States will become wetter or drier, but there is likely to be an overall trend toward increased precipitation and evaporation, more intense rainstorms, and drier soils."

http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/ClimateFutureClimate.html

El Nino happens every five years or so and is usually followed by La Nina. "Today El Nino describes the warm phase of a naturally ccurring sea surface temperature oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean." La Nina is a cool phase that follows.

http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/

El Nino has more to do with temperture variations then with the average global surface temperture and in no way explains the persistant and rapidly increasing global surface temperature over the last one hundred years.

Toad, anytime about now would be fine.

MT, I tend to think that the worst case senario doesn't include the eradication of the human specise. Just civilization as we know it. And that is truely worst case. But, I do see it as a definate possiblity. But as you say, I'm not buying 30 tons of survival gear...yet.

Hang,

Kanth · « **Reply #52 on:** November 04, 2002, 11:26:56 PM »

Kay I missed the lack of rainfall/draught info, I figured they meant dryer as in less water in the soil because of excess evaporation.

WHATEVER

I'm not gonna read anymore time to post another game maybe I need mindless fun now.

Quote

Originally posted by Thrawn
Kanth, actually it can lead to both.

"The continued addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is likely to raise the earth's average temperature by several degrees in the next century, which will in turn raise the level of the sea. Most of the United States is expected to warm, although sulfates may limit warming in some areas. Scientists currently are unable to determine which parts of the United States will become wetter or drier, but there is likely to be an overall trend toward increased precipitation and evaporation, more intense rainstorms, and drier soils."

Thrawn · « **Reply #53 on:** November 04, 2002, 11:38:01 PM »

Almost forgot.

Milo, the reason I found this Australian drought more significant then other cyclical droughts, that may have been caused by El Nino. Is the fact that this is the worst recorded drought in Australian history.

-dead- · « **Reply #54 on:** November 05, 2002, 05:49:48 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by AKS\/\/ulfe
Carbon Dioxide?
Well hell, if all them third world countries would leave the rain forests alone... that wouldn't be as much of a problem.
AFAIK, this years brown cloud is called Asian because it ain't over America.
-SW

Ahh so if all them third world countries would just stay third world countries and leave their rain forests alone the US's disproportionately large CO2 emissions wouldn't be as much of a problem for everyone? Why does the first world have to rely on third world forests? Shouldn't first world, technologically advanced forests be better? - is there a forest gap here?
And those third world countries spending fifty years polluting the heck out of everything is to a large degree untenable precisely because the west has already done that for 200 years, so we can't afford to have anyone else do it too.
I think I see your plan - you keep half the world poor and undeveloped so that you can carry on as usual, and bury your head in the sand - then in a few decades when even that doesn't work and the whole thing goes belly up we can put this epitath on the world: "We could have saved it, but we were too doggone cheap." And after all, who cares really anyway? - we'll all be dead by then - it'll be our kids or our kids' kids that'll face the consequences.

ygsmilo · « **Reply #55 on:** November 05, 2002, 10:42:47 AM »

Thrawn,

Now you know what it is like trying to do my job every day. There is a saying in my line work: A known fundamental is a useless fundamental.

If you look at this drought in Aussie it is bad but the the previous worst from a crop production prespective was 1995. Currently we project the Aussie wheat crop at bout 11.5 mmt. In 1995 it was 12.5 mmt. OK, what does this mean, well once the El Nino cycle was over 1995 the Aussie wheat crop went to a record crop in 1996 and 1997. The same thing happened in the US. We had our worst wheat crop in modern history this year. The El Nino cycle brings the US a wet mild winter. If you look at the wheat crop currently in the US it is in the best shape that we have been in since 1996, which was a record crop in the US.

Basically what I am saying is that for every argument about global warming and its effects you can find data to support the other side. Currently I have access to 4 different weather services and they all use different models to try to predict what is going to happen. With the information technology that we have today I can look at realtime weather in any part of the world and try to apply that information.

I do think that there is something to be concerned about long term, for example you look at the increase in soybean acres in Brazil. The majority of those acres are coming from areas tributary to the rain forests,,, what effect will the reduction of the rain forests have on the weather in that region.

What I have to do is take all the information at my disposal and form an opinion on what I think the markets and it is very easy get into what I call information overload-

If you want to look at some interesting weather data go search what happened after MT Pinitupo (sp) erupted in the Phil. in the late 1980s.

Gotta get back to work,,,the bean market is rallying.

AKS\/\/ulfe · « **Reply #56 on:** November 05, 2002, 10:54:30 AM »

Most of those "third world countries" have governments that COULD reduce their pollution.... they just WON'T.

I find it funny though, you say something about how much polluting we did in the past when we didn't know anything about what was going on... yes, yes I know... you guys in your straw huts were smarter because you stayed away from technology... now we do and we are doing something about it and have been.

So if you wanna start pointing fingers, when are you guys gonna cut back on your Sulfur Dioxide? China produces twice as much as America does... and that toejam is way worse than CO2...
-SW

Thrawn · « **Reply #57 on:** November 05, 2002, 11:24:55 AM »

Milo,

I understand what you are saying agree that El Nino is a large factor in the drought that is currently happening in Austrailian. I don't think however that addresses that it is the worst drought on record.

Neither does address some other points. Such as the continued, persistant relatively fast regression of glaciers, the melting of the polar ice caps, the rising of the sea level and that the messured surface air temperature has been increasing at a realatively fast rate and that rate appears to be increasing.

Nor does it deal with science behind greenhouse gases, which shows that in there current volume in the atmosphere, they should have the effect of raising the earth's surface temperature.

Holden McGroin · « **Reply #58 on:** November 05, 2002, 11:49:31 AM »

Is it warm enough yet to grow vinyards in New Foundland yet like the way it was when Lief Ericson was there?

What was the Co2 source then?

-dead- · « **Reply #59 on:** November 05, 2002, 01:16:36 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by AKS\/\/ulfe
Most of those "third world countries" have governments that COULD reduce their pollution.... they just WON'T.

I find it funny though, you say something about how much polluting we did in the past when we didn't know anything about what was going on... yes, yes I know... you guys in your straw huts were smarter because you stayed away from technology... now we do and we are doing something about it and have been.

So if you wanna start pointing fingers, when are you guys gonna cut back on your Sulfur Dioxide? China produces twice as much as America does... and that toejam is way worse than CO2...
-SW

Hmmm so what you're saying is that a country with 4.5 times the population of the US only produces twice the amount of Sulphur dioxide and is therefore dirty? - doesn't that actually mean that the US produces about twice the amount of sulphur dioxide per capita? So would you be happier if China was to have their emissions at the same level as the US and produce 4.5 times the SO2?!?!