Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => Aces High General Discussion => Topic started by: Dadtallica on September 10, 2023, 11:38:05 AM
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How much would AH sell for?
Lots of talk always about the future and why doesn’t Dale just do this or that etc… As if we know the context of this man’s life to tell him how to live it.
Anyway if you were to make an offer what would it be? What number do you think he cannot refuse?
Not sure why my Doc Evil gif won’t load lol but I tried.
(https://imgur.com/gallery/e3lvGQq)
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who's gonna coad the game.
semp
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Lol That’s up to the buyer I guess.
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This is Dales first baby. How much would you sell your first born for?
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This is Dales first baby. How much would you sell your first born for?
I guess that depends on the day. I'm sure there were a few days when my dad would have traded me for a player to be named later... :devil
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Weird. I distinctly remember Dale saying a number in the low 7 figures when one of these threads came up a few years ago but search yields nothing.
Wiley.
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Wasn’t their an Aces High contemporary that got sold and immediately floundered?
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For an on-going concern , with steady growth, one might consider paying 5 times annual revenue.
In it's current state, you'd be nuts to pay more that 3 times annual revenue.
I'll and guess 1000 subscriptions? No growth in subs. Slowly evaporating clientele.
The problem is what you have is called an elevator asset. A large percent of the company value would go down the elevator and out the building when HT left.
So two year maintenance contract would have to be included at a reasonable salary.
Wrap it all up. Some Kentucky windage....mmmmmmmmmm $800,000.
I only got 28 bucks on me, tho.
Now HT would not sell for that. But Buyers and Sellers often have different perspectives on value.
So how do we judge? Just what HT would take? Or what a rational buyer might offer?
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AcesHigh is priceless. :old:
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For an on-going concern , with steady growth, one might consider paying 5 times annual revenue.
In it's current state, you'd be nuts to pay more that 3 times annual revenue.
I'll and guess 1000 subscriptions? No growth in subs. Slowly evaporating clientele.
The problem is what you have is called an elevator asset. A large percent of the company value would go down the elevator and out the building when HT left.
So two year maintenance contract would have to be included at a reasonable salary.
Wrap it all up. Some Kentucky windage....mmmmmmmmmm $800,000.
I only got 28 bucks on me, tho.
Now HT would not sell for that. But Buyers and Sellers often have different perspectives on value.
So how do we judge? Just what HT would take? Or what a rational buyer might offer?
I did some of the similar math you did and I was coming around there maybe closer to 6 than 8. Your last two questions are the key, without knowing what’s in the man’s head we may never know.
In another thread about active players this spring Lusche figured it at around 800 subs. Dale must be loving this thread lol.
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In another thread about active players this spring Lusche figured it at around 800 subs. Dale must be loving this thread lol.
To be clear, I can just count pilots, not subscriptions :old:
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Dale must be loving this thread lol.
Well, we're just talking out our arse.
Bottom line is, AH could never be worth as much to someone else as it is to him.
I guess that's the way it should be.
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To be clear, I can just count pilots, not subscriptions :old:
I’m sure it’s not a big difference. I’m sure they are some they not know or whatever but you were probably closer than not.
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Wasn’t their an Aces High contemporary that got sold and immediately floundered?
Maybe you are thinking of Air Warrior, which was sold to Electronic Arts and after they bought it, they shut it down. That is where many of us came from.
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For an on-going concern , with steady growth, one might consider paying 5 times annual revenue.
In it's current state, you'd be nuts to pay more that 3 times annual revenue.
I'll and guess 1000 subscriptions? No growth in subs. Slowly evaporating clientele.
The problem is what you have is called an elevator asset. A large percent of the company value would go down the elevator and out the building when HT left.
So two year maintenance contract would have to be included at a reasonable salary.
Wrap it all up. Some Kentucky windage....mmmmmmmmmm $800,000.
I only got 28 bucks on me, tho.
Now HT would not sell for that. But Buyers and Sellers often have different perspectives on value.
So how do we judge? Just what HT would take? Or what a rational buyer might offer?
i think i once heard ah say if he sold ah he would walk away. so no to the maintenance contract.
semp
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For an on-going concern , with steady growth, one might consider paying 5 times annual revenue.
In it's current state, you'd be nuts to pay more that 3 times annual revenue.
I'll and guess 1000 subscriptions? No growth in subs. Slowly evaporating clientele.
The problem is what you have is called an elevator asset. A large percent of the company value would go down the elevator and out the building when HT left.
So two year maintenance contract would have to be included at a reasonable salary.
Wrap it all up. Some Kentucky windage....mmmmmmmmmm $800,000.
I only got 28 bucks on me, tho.
Now HT would not sell for that. But Buyers and Sellers often have different perspectives on value.
So how do we judge? Just what HT would take? Or what a rational buyer might offer?
I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.
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But how about those Cowboys? Their Defense was punishing, like an army of fire ants.
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i think i once heard ah say if he sold ah he would walk away. so no to the maintenance contract.
Then it would lose significant value.
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I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.
You’re right but there is also a price to pay for something that has unique qualities never matched. Yes?
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You’re right but there is also a price to pay for something that has unique qualities never matched. Yes?
Emotional value, I'd say. Like my vehicles, they are more family members than objects. Even they are not living creatures.
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Maybe you are thinking of Air Warrior, which was sold to Electronic Arts and after they bought it, they shut it down. That is where many of us came from.
I came along shortly after those days. What did EA do or not do that they just shut it down?
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You’re right but there is also a price to pay for something that has unique qualities never matched. Yes?
Not if someone is buying it as a business. The only thing that matters is the numbers. Revenue, profit margin, growth rate.
Now if you get some rich person who wants to throw money away on a vanity hobby toy, they might overpay based "uniqueness". But from a business standpoint uniqueness is irrelevant until it directly contributes to profit. It is a tyranny of numbers. But if you are going to dream about a rich guy who is willing overpay for uniqueness, you might as well dream that HT just wins the Texas Mega-Millions drawing and has the money to staff up and take the game to his ultimate dream with a team of 20 programmers and 10 digital artists. If you want to dream, dream big. ;)
You can even by a knowing failing business as long as the numbers are right. Even a failing business can have a sufficient tail on the life cycle curve to squeeze profit out of if the buying prices was right. If there are any severable assets that could sold off at the end is a cherry on top. But the price has to be right to make it attractive. Many a failing company has been bought, squeezed hard for a couple of years, then stripped for parts. HT has already taken the first step. The first thing a buyer would do is eliminate the staff down to bare skeleton needed to milk out the last couple of years. Assuming that you are only milking the tail, you would stop all money wasted on advertising or new development. It would be all about slashing cost and maximizing remaining return.
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I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.
Well like I said, I'm just talking out my arse. I was being generous. And like Dadtallica, I originally was coming up with a number in the 600k range but padded it so as not to be insulting. Couldn't pad it up to a mil though without feeling like I was saying something I didn't believe.
However, there are a lot of subs that are stealth and only come into play an Scenario they are interested in and never play the Melee. I've seen up to 200 on during a popular event plus Melee. If you take some percentage that will ever only be on at one time 20%, 25%? 1000 wouldn't be wildly irrational guess. But now way to know. Could be as low as 500, but I was going to be generous.
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However, there are a lot of subs that are stealth and only come into play an Scenario they are interested in and never play the Melee. I've seen up to 200 on during a popular event plus Melee. If you take some percentage that will ever only be on at one time 20%, 25%?
The percentage of pilots that show only up during special events and never in the MA (so that they don't appear in my pilot counts) is absolutely minimal, I looked into this before.
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The percentage of pilots that show only up during special events and never in the MA (so that they don't appear in my pilot counts) is absolutely minimal, I looked into this before.
Point taken. I know better than to challenge your numbers. ;)
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I think you are spot on in all but the current subscriber number. At 1,000 x $15/mo that's $180K annually. Based on observations upon which I won't expound I suspect the earnings are half that or less.
That’s where I got the 600. 3x gross earnings is fairy standard and I tossed in some extra to make the deal lol.
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I came along shortly after those days. What did EA do or not do that they just shut it down?
They lied, as we all predicted. They really bought it for the large player base, thinking after they shut it down we’d move to their games. Bait & switch. Promised us an overhaul, talked us techs into coming along to support it under EA, then did exactly as we thought, shut down after doing zero. I don’t even recall one update. TC may have a better memory.
Lot of us came to AH, those that didn’t know us treated us poorly, even tho we doubled the base and had a lot of experience to contribute. We got stuck twice. Just took my 3rd round. I learned quicker this time.
It was in need of a total overhaul from scratch, from what I heard, it sold for well into 7 digits.
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Now if you get some rich person who wants to throw money away on a vanity hobby toy, they might overpay based "uniqueness".
Ask Steve Cohen how that worked out for the NY Mets.
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This is Dales first baby. How much would you sell your first born for?
He wrote a number of things prior to AH1. Warbirds, for instance.
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That’s where I got the 600. 3x gross earnings is fairy standard and I tossed in some extra to make the deal lol.
In my estimate I was tossing in the 2yr HT maint contract too. Did you add that?
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In my estimate I was tossing in the 2yr HT maint contract too. Did you add that?
Not really that would certainly have to be included. Might just lessen the grease the palm money. I would suspect if someone was paying that money they would just want it outright and hire their own crew. So many unknowns to make a perfect estimate probably.
Even if it meant the end of the game or it stayed the same, I would want to see it sold for way more than I expect!
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and the price would go up to $30 a month!
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and the price would go up to $30 a month!
For sure. I might pay more if they were going to develop it.