The JSDF is currently constitutionally prohibited from such as action, so they are out of the scenario. The Japan/Taiwan/China relationship is convoluted and as foggy as the US/Taiwan/China relationship. But Japan has been more direct than the US. The US, more or less, washed its hands of the issue with the 'one China' policy. I believe that is the path the US will take.
The pro independence political faction in Taiwan has been rattling the cage a little too vocally in the eyes of China's leaders and this is a reminder to them that reunification is not an 'if', it is a 'when.' China will not fade on Taiwan reunification and I'm of the opinion that this current generation of Chinese leaders would like it to happen on their watch. The new law still emphasizes a peaceful reunification, but says that a formal move toward Taiwan independence or the failure of a negotiated reunification could result in military action. I see it as a clear message to the west that China will do things their way, and don't even think about challenging our intended leadership in Asia.
The Chinese premier was painfully and unwaveringly clear in his statement that China would allow no foreign intervention on the issue. He spoke it with a slow and deliberate style that was tailored linguistically and in delivery to be clearly understood by the United States government and by the people of the United States. It was delivered specifically for US consumption in Bush-style language and mannerism, as in: "Don't even think about interfering in our business..."
Was he shown on any American TV news, or was it just reported? I'm curious.
The Japanese have invested heavily in Chinese factories and Taiwan factories as well. When people think about Chinese imports to the US, they usually don't grasp that Japan has supplied most of the electrical components, built the Chinese subsidiary assembly plant, or supplied the machinery to operate the plants. In essence, the China trade surplus is partially a Japanese trade surplus. China has tacked on about 50% added value.
Japanese and Chinese politicians are at odds with their business leaders on policy. The financial and business communities are plugging away in the hope that the continually growing commerce will influence the politicians to back off the rhetoric and maybe even get along. Unfortunately, people like Tokyo Governor Ishihara (who is actually quite insane) get reelected with over 70% of the vote by saying things like, "Nanking never happened," or, "Asia wanted to be colonized by Japan," or, "All Chinese are all sneaky thieves." What does China have to do with running the police or fire departments in Tokyo? I guess it just proves that politicians and voters everywhere are not much smarter than cabbages.
There is no getting around the fact that Koizumi's continued support and visits to Yasakuni are a major stumbling block to political normalcy between China and Japan. (Note: Yasakuni is the Japanese war dead memorial where WWII Class A war criminals are entombed in addition to other military members. It is a Shinto shrine run by right wing nationalists who believe the war was a just cause and the emperor should be returned to power.)
Japan is not in any position to challenge any Chinese military action against Taiwan or anywhere else, except Japan. But China and Japan are not in any real danger of a major conflict. The only way Japan would be in danger is if the US decided to defend Taiwan. All bets are off if that happens.
