Muzzy, Latrobe already made the point that there is no recipe for success - which is a great thing by the way! This is why combat is still fun for me in AH after so many years.
What we can give you are just general advice on how to approach the fight and what to pay attention to, but the rest is you and your experience.
In 1 on 1 with the jug my advice to you is to be active rather than proactive. By this I mean do not wait to see the other player move and react to him - you have to be the one with the initiative. Try to lead with your move and if that does not work, break away early and disengage. Some planes were just not made for duels. The 190d is a great fighter in the MA and scenarios but it kinda sucks in duels - the P47 is somewhat similar.
To take the initiative, try to guess what the other player will do. Most players will repeat the same move over and over again - it is a good move that they are familiar with so if you react to it you play into their hands. Now do something before they get to execute their thing. For example, if they like to lead with a hard vertical pull, try to dive and pull into them before they start. Or roll 90 deg and pull some angle off - they will think that you are executing a poorly timed lead turn and will be tempted to turn after you instead of their original plane (use the jugs roll rate to quickly turn into them for a flat merge). Putting yourself in a slight disadvantage can work in your favor if it makes the other player change his plan and throw him off his comfort zone.
You want to beat the player, not his plane.
One final advice - if you decide that the fight is not going in your favor, disengage, and the other player calls you a runner, do the following: move your head position as high as possible, bend to look forward-down, and lower your pants. If he wants you to turn and fight again he should break off and give you room to do so.