"...it will likely have a positive effect on bush's chances in 2004 and an oppososit impact on theirs."
If the capture of Sadam leads to an improvement of conditions on the ground in Iraq, signs of real progress, then obviously it would have an effect on the next election. But to think his capture itself will have any long term political effect is stretching it a bit. Unfortunately, I suspect it will be business as usual in Iraq.
yowser