I'm sure he knew. But if he has plausible deniability then he could get off. These are smart weasels. DC is a big natural selection machine for weasels. Survival of the weaseliest.
As brilliant as he is, and he really is and very effective, you can get a bit too arrogant and make a blunder. BTW, brilliant at PR is not necessarily a compliment

He pushed the propaganda and divisiveness aspects to the limits - very effectively. A master at gossip, runor, US vs. Them and the beauty of simplicity and making the most of peoples worst instincts. More on the ethics of Karl Rove from Wikipedia:
In 1970, at the age of nineteen and while a protege of Donald Segretti (later convicted as a Watergate conspirator), Rove sneaked into the campaign office of Illinois Democrat Alan Dixon and stole some letterhead, which he used to print fake campaign rally fliers promising "free beer, free food, girls and a good time for nothing," and distributed them at rock concerts and homeless shelters. Admitting to the incident much later, Rove said, "I was nineteen and I got involved in a political prank."
n 1986, just before a crucial debate in the election for governor of Texas, Karl Rove announced that his office had been bugged by the Democrats. There was no evidence of this, and it was later alleged that he had bugged his own phone to garner media coverage.
Karl Rove's reputation for political dirty tricks is such that, among both his supporters and critics the phrase "Rovian" has come to be used as a synonym for "Machiavellian".
He also implied that Ann Richards was a lesbian to Get Bush elected Texas Gov.; the attacks on McCain as being unhinged from his POW experiences and the “push poll” questions in the south: "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" (adopted Bangladesh daughter); his co-authoring of Unfit for Command against Kerry (what did you do during the war, Karl?); the 1994 defeat of Georgia senator and wounded Vietnam vet Max Cleland, implying he was a buddy of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden -- a real piece of brilliant work. From what I have read, there are a variety of more traditional Republicans who won't be sad at his departure, since the whole "You're either with us or against us" thing is wielded pretty strongly within the party. A master at developing the brands: Republican and Conservative; and even more masterful at setting the opposition’s brands for: Democrat and liberal - not that Democratic ineptitude didn’t play a major role.
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy

Charon