Author Topic: Gas $$ Questions  (Read 5309 times)

Offline Holden McGroin

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Gas $$ Questions
« Reply #60 on: August 31, 2005, 02:14:09 PM »
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Originally posted by beet1e
Two things... 1) I thought we were talking about Germany? 2) How do you know how many of those licensed drivers are ACTIVE drivers, ie. not those who have given up driving but still have a licence?


I quote you USA stats (because there was a US / Germany comment earlier in the thread)  Then you say you thought we were talking about Germany, then quote me UK statistics....

WTF?
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Offline Mustaine

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« Reply #61 on: August 31, 2005, 02:19:27 PM »
you know what.... if we are all going to get thchnical, and show statistics, i'd like to see where beetle got the "40% of the worlds vehicles" also.

plenty of other "data" being shown here.

Ps. Holden, 89% private? wondering if that is counting ATV's boats and stuff. personally i was only thinking about road vehicles, as in street legal.
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Offline beet1e

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« Reply #62 on: August 31, 2005, 02:25:15 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
I quote you USA stats (because there was a US / Germany comment earlier in the thread)  Then you say you thought we were talking about Germany, then quote me UK statistics....

WTF?
HG - I was trying to make a point - that "per capita" is not a good way of measuring the ratio of cars to drivers. As you can see from the British stats, around 44% of the population are not licensed drivers. There are 32½m fully licensed drivers, and 28m vehicles. DVLA doesn't keep track of who actually drives. I suspect that a significant number of the 38m license holders do not drive at all.

Ripsnort's graph suggests that the number of vehicles per driver might be even higher in Germany. I would investigate it, but I can't. I apologise for not being able to speak German.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #63 on: August 31, 2005, 02:36:38 PM »
No aploogy necessary, as I have the same shortcoming.

44% of the UK is not licensed.  That seems reasonable.  If you took the northeast US as a comparison, maybe you could compare apples to apples.  Boston and New York have well used public transportation, like those who use the London Underground.  Berlin, Hamburg, Stuttgart and Munich I would assume have public transport on par.  

You probably would have a difficult time making a meaningful comparison of Henley-on-Thames with Elko Nevada.

I am surprised that with the concentration of population in Germany as opposed to Kansas that Germany's per capita number of automobile is that high.

The number of cars per capita is probably a better generalization with all Euro vs US, and Ripsnorts graph shows equity between the two.
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Offline straffo

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« Reply #64 on: August 31, 2005, 02:43:15 PM »
All I see is when it's for a Tsunami the per capita is not pertinent but when it's about global polution it work.

blerchhh.

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #65 on: August 31, 2005, 02:44:45 PM »
HG - I suspect the proportion of drivers in Germany is lower, if only because the driving age is higher. It's 18 in Germany, and 17 here.  I understand it's 16 in the US - is this in all states?

LOL - I have passed through Elko,NV on I-80. And I had a haircut in Henley on Thames this afternoon! :p

Offline Wolfala

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« Reply #66 on: August 31, 2005, 02:55:23 PM »
Nice hijack - how about back to the actual question?


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Offline Holden McGroin

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Re: Gas $$ Questions
« Reply #67 on: August 31, 2005, 03:04:43 PM »
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Originally posted by Wolfala
Just a background question. But Say Feb 2004 the prices were a fairly normal, say $1.49 for 87 and slightly higher for 91. What was the cause for going from that to nearly double in a year or so?

Wolf


The cost of crude went from $40 to $70 per barrel.


------

Now about the German vs UK vs greater Euro community vs USA automotive demographics, ....
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Offline moose

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$4 a gallon
« Reply #68 on: August 31, 2005, 03:08:27 PM »
$4 a gallon here on cape cod today. i broke out my bike.
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Offline Ripsnort

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Re: $4 a gallon
« Reply #69 on: August 31, 2005, 03:11:11 PM »
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Originally posted by moose
$4 a gallon here on cape cod today. i broke out my bike.


If more people did this, it will drive the cost of fuel down...supply vs. demand.

I cut back to commuting from 5 days a week to 2.  I work from home virtually.

Offline Seagoon

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« Reply #70 on: August 31, 2005, 03:23:28 PM »
Hi All,

A few factoids contributing to the overall high cost of Gas, most of the stats are summarized information from the US Energy Information Administration and the industry broadsheet The Oil and Gas Journal

As of 2005 the USA had 21.9 Billion barrels of proved oil reserves, making it the 11th most oil rich country in the world.

However, American drilling, refining, and research and discovery at home all continue to decline, even as consumption increases. Despite the fact that the US has the capacity to hugely reduce its reliance on foriegn oil by utilizing domestic oil reserves, political pressure makes this less feasible with every passing year. Specifically, drilling in many of the most oil rich areas is severely restricted. In a sense, environmentalism has made us more prone to the charges of "selfishness" in that US unwillingness to drill at home means that they consume more of the total foreign oil production than is necessary and drive prices up worldwide.

Almost as critical as the production problem however, is the refinery crisis. As has been pointed out the USA has not built a new refinery in over 30 years and several have closed in the meantime. Our consumption is already far outstripping our refining capacity, and the chances of building a new refinery are actually probably worse than the chances of renewed drilling in Californian coastal waters.

The following US Gov. stats should show how serious the problem actually is, I've tried to order them to make the data more useful:

Oil Consumption (2003E): 20.0 million bbl/d; (January-October 2004E): 20.4 million bbl/d
Crude Oil Refining Capacity (1/1/05E) (Oil and Gas Journal): 16.8 million bbl/d (132 refineries)
Proven Oil Reserves (1/1/05E) (Oil and Gas Journal): 21.9 billion barrels
Oil Wells Drilled (2003): 6,284 (down from 8,060 during 2001); (January-September 2004): 4,391 (down from 4,871 during Jan.-Sep. 2003)
Oil Production (January-October 2004E): 7.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d), of which 5.4 million bbl/d is crude oil

Net Oil Imports (2003E): 11.2 million bbl/d (56% of total consumption); (January-October 2004E): 11.8 million bbl/d (58% of total consumption)
Gross Oil Imports (2003E): 12.2 million bbl/d (of which, 9.6 million bbl/d was crude oil and 2.6 million bbl/d were petroleum products)
Crude Oil Imports from the Persian Gulf (2003E): 2.4 million bbl/d; (January-October 2004E): 2.4 million bbl/d
Top Sources of U.S. Crude Oil Imports (January-October 2004E): Canada (1.61 million bbl/d); Mexico (1.59 million bbl/d); Saudi Arabia (1.48 million bbl/d); Venezuela (1.29 million bbl/d); Nigeria (1.09 million bbl/d)

Total Oil Stocks (12/10/04): 1.65 billion barrels (including about 673 million barrels in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve)

With the situation above, it would be odd if prices weren't going up. Supply is dropping, while demand is increasing, the most basic rule of economics dictates prices will increase until supply begins to match demand. US efforts to date have primarily been to decrease demand at home and increase supply abroad (which is very difficult to do), personally I believe its time domestic supply (which the US can control) was actually increased as well.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2005, 04:25:59 PM by Seagoon »
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Offline beet1e

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« Reply #71 on: August 31, 2005, 03:41:59 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Wolfala
Nice hijack - how about back to the actual question?
Sorry Wolf - I'm as guilty as any...

Nice post by Seagoon.

Yes, supply and demand. In Europe, prices have always been much higher than in the US, so there's never been much of a market for 10mpg gas guzzlers. We have a few Rolls Royces, big Jaguars/Mercs etc. Plus we have many - far too many IMO - SUV type vehicles which use a disproportionate amount of fuel. What needs to be faced is that oil is a precious resource. Several European countries now have more diesel cars than petrol cars.

We do, however, have our share of "soccer moms" as mustaine calls them. And they drive the most hideous vehicles. That thing that VW makes - the Toureng? It has a 5 litre 10-cyl engine!  FFS!!!! Why the hell does anyone need a vehicle like that to do the school run?

Time to break out the Cayenne pic


Offline Nilsen

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« Reply #72 on: August 31, 2005, 03:43:50 PM »
I just now saw on BBC that the US dont have any finished product in strategic reserves, only crude. Is this correct?

Offline Nilsen

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« Reply #73 on: August 31, 2005, 03:48:34 PM »
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Originally posted by beet1e
Plus we have many - far too many IMO - SUV type vehicles which use a disproportionate amount of fuel.


I read today that last years sales of SUV's in Norway was 10.8% of total sales.. up from about 9%. I bet 99% of those buyers are city dwellers and the rest actually needs them. Thank cod the sales of pickup trucks are down.

Offline Ripsnort

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« Reply #74 on: August 31, 2005, 03:54:42 PM »
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Originally posted by Nilsen
I just now saw on BBC that the US dont have any finished product in strategic reserves, only crude. Is this correct?


Reserves for any country means "Stored underground in crude form" Our SOS is in a salt dome cavern.