I think the photo of VF-S is mis-marked as 43-6975 that, as Fencer51 pointed out, was lost in March '44 while serving with the 363rd FG. I think VF-S is really 42-106975, a P-51B-15 with the Malcolm hood that carried the codes VF-S and VF-N at different points in its carrier. The "210" of the serial number was painted over with the blue on the rudder leaving the "6975" on the fin. If the serial number was 43-6975, most likely the "36" would have been on the rudder and the "975" on the fin. Too bad we don't have a picture of VF-S's left side.
Okay, that means you have two choices:
A: VF-S with a modified swoop to match the photo. (Unknowns: Id bands; red shadows to the VF-S.)
or
B: QP- with the same red nose swoop, red rudder, and ID bands as Morley's "Red Dog XI" in the foreground. I would not add a plane code letter – think you would see part of a letter in the photo if the bird had one. (Unknowns: Squadron code letters outlined in red at the time of the photo -- Yes, I'm picky.)
My vote is for choice B. I think it is reasonable to assume that the bird would of operated with Morley's "Red Dog XII" and I think that is the objective with this skin.