Author Topic: Democrats Want to Lose another war  (Read 3815 times)

Offline Thrawn

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Democrats Want to Lose another war
« Reply #90 on: November 19, 2005, 12:15:08 PM »
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Originally posted by Holden McGroin
The economy is doing rather well...


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Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the third quarter of 2005, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.3 percent.



"The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were personal consumption expenditures (PCE), equipment and software, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. The contributions of these components were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment."

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm

So that "growth" was caused by the housing bubble, the government going further into debt and people spending money on consumer goods and investing less?  Doesn't sound good to me.

Offline Scootter

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« Reply #91 on: November 19, 2005, 04:03:39 PM »
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So that "growth" was caused by the housing bubble, the government going further into debt and people spending money on consumer goods and investing less?  Doesn't sound good to me. [/B]


The economy is all about spending as it provides the impetus that allows companies to hire and grow. Whether that spending is on homes (allows those that build, sell, etc. to buy jet skis and beer) cars or golf clubs.

Home sales also spark sales in appliances, lawn mowers, TV's, window treatments and such. Things not always associated with the construction of the home itself.

When people spend, when the government spends, it causes growth in the economy. Investing may not be good for the economy, proof? How about "investing in some real-estate with me. First send me a check for 100k and then lets see how it helps the economy.


So what part about the growth in the economy doesn't sound good to you?

Remember someone’s personnel financial status does not need to be good but they are still helping the economy.  Buying on credit may be bad for you personally but it still can be good for the economy (note I said can be good).

The unemployment rate is lower then it was under Bill Clinton and the economic growth numbers for the most part are better as well notwithstanding all the challenges never seen before such as the events of 9/11.

But the Clinton administration was heralded as providing one of the most robust economic times in our lives, this I don’t understand. But as we know it’s all about politics and who’s dog is in the fight …sigh!

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #92 on: November 19, 2005, 10:54:49 PM »
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Originally posted by Scootter
The economy is all about spending as it provides the impetus that allows companies to hire and grow. Whether that spending is on homes (allows those that build, sell, etc. to buy jet skis and beer) cars or golf clubs.


Spending itself isn't what drives an economy, it's capital investment that does.  A company that makes profits from increased spending doesn't increase it's production unless it invests it in captial to increase production.


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Home sales also spark sales in appliances, lawn mowers, TV's, window treatments and such. Things not always associated with the construction of the home itself.


Increasing the speed of currency circulation doesn't increase production capability.  You are just trading around money faster.  Again, investing it allows companies to by more equipment to manufacture more goods.


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When people spend, when the government spends, it causes growth in the economy.


It depends on what people are spending it on, if they are spending it on consumer goods they temporarily have a higher standard of living, but they don't get wealthier.  If they invest it wisely then they will get wealthier, production capacity increases and everyone's standard of living goes up (more, less costly goods), and they get wealthier.

Government spending does not help an economy.  The government steals money from people (where they would have spent that money on consumer goods or investments, but inevitalby on what they demanded)and allocates it to sectors of the economy where there is no demand.  Thus misallocating scarce resources and hurting the economy.


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Investing may not be good for the economy, proof? How about "investing in some real-estate with me. First send me a check for 100k and then lets see how it helps the economy.


Fair enough, let's say "investing wisely".


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So what part about the growth in the economy doesn't sound good to you?


Well, the part of the growth that isn't really growth.


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Remember someone’s personnel financial status does not need to be good but they are still helping the economy.  Buying on credit may be bad for you personally but it still can be good for the economy (note I said can be good).


Buying on credit is imho one of the...let's say irresponsible things a person can do.  Buying something you can't afford at the risk of defaulting on it not only hurts you but also the economy.  Of course chances of defaulting changes with various factors.  But as more people in your country and mine go further into debt, the chances of people defaulting increases.  Remember demand means wanting something...and having the wealth to purchase it.  When you buy something on credit, you inevitably skew the market outlook.  People believe there is more actual demand for something than there actually is and invest accordingly....you said something about the housing market?  ;)


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The unemployment rate is lower then it was under Bill Clinton and the economic growth numbers for the most part are better as well notwithstanding all the challenges never seen before such as the events of 9/11.

But the Clinton administration was heralded as providing one of the most robust economic times in our lives, this I don’t understand. But as we know it’s all about politics and who’s dog is in the fight …sigh!



I try and keep my information about the economy separate from politics.  The only thing a President really can do to effect your economy is to just veto spending bills that come across thier desk.  But no way a Democrat or Republican is going to do that, so what the hell.

As for employment numbers, apparently about half of those created in the past few years have been do to the housing bubble.

Offline Nash

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« Reply #93 on: November 19, 2005, 11:34:52 PM »
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Originally posted by Thrawn
The only thing a President really can do to effect your economy is to just veto spending bills that come across thier desk.  But no way a Democrat or Republican is going to do that, so what the hell.


A very quick search (because this sounded so off to me....).....

Clinton used the line item veto 82 times in 11 different spending bills, in 1997 alone.

Bush? Not once. He's never done it.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #94 on: November 20, 2005, 01:20:46 AM »
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Originally posted by Nash
A very quick search (because this sounded so off to me....).....

Clinton used the line item veto 82 times in 11 different spending bills, in 1997 alone.

Bush? Not once. He's never done it.


Line item veto was declared by the SC an unconstitutional shift of power from the legistative to the executive branch.

Supreme Court in Clinton v. City of New York, 118 S. Ct. 2091 (1998)
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline Scootter

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« Reply #95 on: November 20, 2005, 06:59:43 AM »
Thanks Thrawn,

Points well made and taken,

Investment is much better but spending needs to increase for this to happen (chicken or egg), Investment is going on as well.

I am a General Contractor and have an interest in the housing "bubble". I believe the cycle (better word then bubble) is at or a bit past its peek and as buyers buy and interest rates rise we will see a down trend in this market. This is a normal cycle I have observed for the last 20 years and is nothing to get to bent out of shape about. I have done well and as a resolute have increased my investment in real estate as well as in other business opportunities.

I feel the energy costs will be a large damper on growth and may keep a cap on interest rates in the short term but over all will keep a downward pressure on growth over the next several years. Over all growth will be up as customers get used to the gas prices and confidence is already on a rebound.


You have it seems a greater understanding about economics then I, and I appreciate the time you have taken with your reply, may the next year find you with success with your investments and aspirations.

Regards,

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #96 on: November 20, 2005, 09:38:34 AM »
a soldier is three times more likely to be killed if he lived in Washington DC than if he was fighting in Iraq.   We woulda lost 6000 troops in DC in the same time... thank god we sent our boys to iraq out of harms way.

I don't think the troops are all that demoralized over there.

lazs

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #97 on: November 20, 2005, 10:14:46 AM »
Thanks Scooter, I'm not sure how knowledgable I am about economics but the following book taught me alot about some of the socialist fallacies that seem to be everywhere in our countries.  I can't recommend this book enough.


http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0517548232/104-3005751-3727141?v=glance&n=283155&v=glance

Offline WhiteHawk

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« Reply #98 on: November 20, 2005, 10:23:06 AM »
Yeager, maybe it would help some of us understand, if we knew what the republican plan is in Iraq?   'if we win we are genuises, if we lose blame the democrats?'    Its only common sense after 2 years of getting Brave, highly skilled US warriors killed day after day, that somebody might want to either see some headway or a plan of somekind.  I guess the silver lining is the billions of dollars the war planners are making every month this thing drags on, eh?:aok

Offline Gunslinger

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« Reply #99 on: November 20, 2005, 05:50:43 PM »
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Originally posted by WhiteHawk
Yeager, maybe it would help some of us understand, if we knew what the republican plan is in Iraq?   'if we win we are genuises, if we lose blame the democrats?'    Its only common sense after 2 years of getting Brave, highly skilled US warriors killed day after day, that somebody might want to either see some headway or a plan of somekind.  I guess the silver lining is the billions of dollars the war planners are making every month this thing drags on, eh?:aok



That's just it, headway could land on some of the medias faces dance a jig and do the wiggle and they still wouldn't report it.  

After alot of thinking today I came to the conclusion.....If you had a battle plan, would you make it public?

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #100 on: November 20, 2005, 08:01:48 PM »
Dude, that's conspiracy theory logic.


If the world secretly run by a cabal of lizards from another planet.  They won't leave any evidence of this.  As there is no evidence, the world must be run by a secret cabal of lizard aliens.

Offline Gunslinger

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« Reply #101 on: November 20, 2005, 08:38:30 PM »
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Originally posted by Thrawn
Dude, that's conspiracy theory logic.


If the world secretly run by a cabal of lizards from another planet.  They won't leave any evidence of this.  As there is no evidence, the world must be run by a secret cabal of lizard aliens.


:huh

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #102 on: November 20, 2005, 10:37:03 PM »
Yeah sure, like you don't know anything about your lizard overlords.


Here is what your arguement is.

There is no evidence for X.
Therefore X must be.

I've been going though the usual fallacy sites.  And you know what, I can't find that specific case covered.  But geez, lack of evidence for something is evidence for it?  You touched on at least two fallacies that I have definitions for.


Argumentum ad Ignorantiam

There is no evidence against p.
Therefore, p.

There is no evidence against Bush having a secret plan.
Therefore there is a secret plan.

Of course, by definition there wouldn't be evidence of a secret plan.



Affirmation of the Consequent

If p then q.
q.
Therefore, p.


If there is a secret plan then there would be no evidence.
There is no evidence.
Therefore there is a secret plan.


http://www.fallacyfiles.org/index.html

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #103 on: November 20, 2005, 10:46:34 PM »
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Originally posted by Thrawn
]I've been going though the usual fallacy sites.  And you know what, I can't find that specific case covered.



Found it.


Subverted Support

Definition

An explanation is intended to explain how some phenomenon happens. The explanation is fallacious if the phenomenon does not actually happen of if there is no evidence that it does happen.

http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/explan/subsup.htm

Offline Gunslinger

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« Reply #104 on: November 20, 2005, 10:55:31 PM »
no mines based more on common sense if you ask me.  

one should make no more assumptions than needed

Here's the latin version

Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate

or

Given two equally predictive theories, choose the simpler.

Here's an example if you're still scratching your head:
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For example, after a storm you notice that a tree has fallen. Based on the evidence of the storm and the fallen tree, a reasonable hypothesis would be that the storm blew down the tree — a hypothesis that requires you to suspend your disbelief very little, as there exist strong logical connections binding what you already know to this solution (seeing and hearing storms tends to indeed indicate the existence of storms; storms are more than capable of felling trees). A rival hypothesis claiming that the tree was knocked over by marauding 200-metre tall space aliens requires several additional assumptions, with various logical weaknesses resulting from inconsistencies with what is already known (concerning the very existence of aliens, their ability and desire to travel interstellar distances, their ability and desire to (non-)intentionally knock down trees and the alien biology that allows them to be 200 metres tall in terrestrial gravity), and is therefore less preferable.


I have to make ALOT of asumptions to think that Bush and CO. let alone ALL of the Generals in charge are incompitent and NOT have a plan.

My question is simple (wich you didn't answer)  If you had an exit plan would you publish it?  Seriously, why would you?  If I knew the exact date and timeline my enemy was leaving I'd plan accordingly, you don't think terrorists think this way?

It just makes sense to me.  Personally I'd think it would be great if Bush pulled in all the senior leaders (IE Politicians from BOTH sides) and generals into one room and said we arent leaving here until we all agree on a "Victory Strategy" and quit politicising this war.

Now on WMDs I know Sadam had them, that's not an assumption.  He hasn't shown any proof that he destroyed them, in fact there's more evidence to the contrarey.  So where'd they go?

And when all else fails use the K.I.S.S. method.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2005, 10:57:40 PM by Gunslinger »