Author Topic: Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years  (Read 4879 times)

Offline IgnorantJoe

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #150 on: September 15, 2006, 11:39:01 PM »
Would anyone care if I mentioned that Popular Mechanics and DOW have said that "the average American home generates as many fossil-fuel emission as two cars"?

Are would you just rather keep with the herd mentality that cars are teh debil?

Offline Angus

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #151 on: September 16, 2006, 03:47:07 AM »
The Americans are indeed on top in fossil burns, - one and every American creates 10 times the amount of a Chinaman for instance.

BUT, it's bigger than that, and sometimes I feel that the debate goes from environmentalists saying "you U.S. people spew too much fossil gases, it's all yer fault" and as this issue is mentioned at all so many Americans go all on to a clutching defense.

The whole impact of mankind is very much bigger, and is occuring worldwide.
The biggest baddie might be deforestation and buildup of deserts rather than just the burn of fossil fuels.

All add up though, and our impact is by no means small......As the bubbles show....
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #152 on: September 16, 2006, 09:13:41 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Here's what NASA sais....
Guess they can't get over their melting problem either.




Call it propoganda, but this is NASA stuff,


Not to burst your bubble, but some of the info introduced is also NASA "stuff" and they come to completely different opinion.
Take a look around Angus. It won`t bite ya. :)

And also, like I have said previously, when you tire of this doomsday scenario or when it is blown out of the water, I have a million of em for you to wring your hands over. Just ask. Glad to oblige.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2006, 09:15:46 AM by Jackal1 »
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Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #153 on: September 16, 2006, 09:32:24 AM »
The real deal. :)
Note: NASA "stuff" included.
Can you say sham children?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   
As Bush denies funding to international abortion groups, the UN issues another dire warning about global warming.  Yet, global warming is a myth.
   
      
      

   
   
   
On January 22, 2001 as pro-lifers descended on Washington, DC for the annual National Right To Life March on the U.S. Supreme Court, President George W. Bush, in one of his first meaningful presidential acts, rescinded an Executive Order issued by Bill Clinton (who himself rescinded a similar Executive Order issued by Ronald Reagan in 1984) in 1993 that allowed tax-payer dollars to be used for abortion.
iiiiiWithin hours of the Bush Executive Order, the United Nations (meeting in Shanghai, China) countered the Bush declaration with one of their own by declaring in the most forceful statement yet that the threat of global warming was much more imminent than previously thought.  The report, released to the media on January 23 in Beijing, predicted that the human element affecting global warming would trigger brutal droughts, floods, and violent storms across the planet over the next century because of human-caused air pollution is causing surface temperatures on the planet to rise faster than previously anticipated.
iiiiiThe report speculated (as fact) that the Earth's average temperature would rise as much as 10.4 degrees over the next 100 years.  This is 60% higher than the same group predicted less than six years ago.  "The scientific consensus presented in this comprehensive report about human-induced climate change should sound alarm bells in every national capital and in every local community," Klaus Topfler, head of the UN Environmental Programme, "We should start preparing now."
iiiiiPreparing, of course, means funding more abortions--particularly in the poverty-strickened third world nations with overwhelmingly high birth rates and an absense of birth control means of any type.
iiiiiThe new report was issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 100 ecoalarmist scientists who were pulled together by the UN in 1988
to assess global warming.  (While it might seem strange that the UN was holding its annual environmental strategy meetings in the most socialist nation on Earth, it is important to understand that in 1998, in a private meeting in the White House, Vice President Al Gore told Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji that he would give China whatever it wanted if Beijing would agree to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions.  Of course, what China wanted was better access to America's top military secrets, more super computers to perfect the systems created from the stolen weapons secrets--and even better access into America's consumer markets.  Did Zhu get what he wanted?  When Zhu addressed the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a pro-China New York think tank in 1999, he told the panda-huggers in attendance that it was a good investment for China.)
iiiiiThe question is: is Global Warming a real threat as the ecoalarmists say, or is it a myth as a minority of climatologists in the United States claim?  It is good politics, we all know that.  And, it solves a problem for the transnationalist industrialists who need to transfer entire industries from the United States and other industrialized nations into the emerging third world countries where the UN's jobless human capital (and tomorrow's consumers) live without creating a backlash that will cause Americans and Europeans to boycott their goods as they build the new economies of the third world (but must rely on the consumers in the industrialized nations to buy those products until the third world economies have developed sufficiently).

The Myth of Global Warming
iiiiiAsk anyone who spent the winter of 2000-2001 in Central Russia if they believe in global warming, and you will likely here the response: "Nyet!" from everyone you ask.  The temperatures plummeted to 75 degrees below zero and colder (-40C to -53C) in early December and remained there through January, creating unbelievable hardships that were reminescent of the Mongolian winter of 1999-2000 when the thermometer dropped to -50 degrees Farenheit in October in Mongolia, and remained in sub-zero numbers throughout most of the winter.  During that tragic arctic winter in which snow cover, as well as the density and duration of it, remained abnormally high, UN relief organizations and the International Red Cross estimated that over 300 thousand camels, goats, yaks, sheep and horses--animals that are central to the Mongolian economy--died each week.  Hospitals in the populated areas of Mongolia reported greatly increased admissions of the very young and the elderly suffering from cold-related illnesses, and the international wire services reported an epic increase of starvation-related deaths.  Yet, not one whisper of the Mongolian tragedy, or the fact that Asia was experiencing its earliest or coldest winter of the cenutry touched the American media.
iiiiiWhen the ecoalarmists first advanced the theory that the world was heading towards an inexorable phase of mankind-induced planetary warming that would have a devastating impact on the entire world, many in the scientific community shook their heads and ignored the rantings because they viewed them as too ridiculous to challenge.  Since that time, the agenda of those behind the scare has become all too clear--and the threat to America all too great--that it can no longer be ignored, althought it now appears it may be too late to stop the fully-loaded environmental freight train as it gains speed on its downhill run to execution.
iiiiiAnti-green environmental groups--as well as the government itself--have tracked the globe's average monthly temperatures since 1979, when NASA satellite temperature
record-keeping began.  NASA temperature tracking is important because that data is real.
iiiiiGlobal satellite measurements are made from a series of orbiting platforms that record the average temperature in various atmospheric layers.  Temperatures at levels between 5,000 and 28,000 feet are measured by weather balloons which feed the data to the satellite which, in turn, feeds the data back to NASA.  These measurements are accurate to within 0.001C, and provide climatologists with more uniform data--in a more universal manner for the entire globe--and is far more reliable than the measurements taken on land, or the wild guesses of political pundits whose agenda necessitates global warming.
iiiiiNASA's global temperature tracking between 1979 and 1998 reveal the typical weather anomalies--unseasonably hot summers and warmer winters--during that period; but overall, NASA data from 1979 forward clearly shows there has been no sustained planetary warming.  Nor has any been recorded in all of the years that weather tracking data has been compiled.  In fact, during the very mild winters that North America experienced since the El Nino winter of 1998, the global temperature departure has been -0.094 degrees.
iiiiiFrom the Rio Earth Summit forward Americans have been bombarded with a virtual plethora of articles, books, and newspaper articles on the need to reduce greenhouse gases--mainly carbon dioxide.  The greenhouses gases, Americans are being told, are the real culprits behind global warming.  And, we have been warned, greenhouse gases are rising.  They are rising, we have been told, because of us--people.  People who consume fossil fuels.  People who destroy trees.  People who consume too much space.  Yet, with or without the proposed UN Global Warming Treaty (which Clinton and Gore partially implemented through the EPA before leaving office), increased carbon dioxide levels is a foregone conclusion--even if every fossil fuel was outlawed overnight in every nation of the world. The human race is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions only to the extent that our increased productivity of the land [i.e., modern agriculture] has caused atmospheric carbon dioxide to rise, allowing plantlife and fauna to become more abundant.  The biomass in dryland areas of America are expanding the native fauna where none had previously existed simply because, with previously lower carbon dioxide levels, it couldn't grow.  Plant life feeds on carbon dioxide, creating oxygen as a byproduct.  And humans, you know, require oxygen to live.
iiiiiDue to the cries of the ecoalarmists, scientists have been monitoring the increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for much of the past decade, and have closely studied its "impact" on the environment.  Most have been astounded by what they have witnessed based on the doomsday cries of the climatic doomsayers.  Most have written on the subject in America's prominent ecological periodicals, but apparently the doomsayers, who claim to be scientific environmentalists, don't read those publications.
iiiiiA multitude of studies which have been conducted by several unbiased climatic experts and biologists alike indicate that the increased levels of carbon dioxide that triggered the "cimatic crisis" are indicative only of better crop yields, expanding fauna, and a richer habitat for wildlife--not exactly the best ammunition in the world from which to create an apocalyptic nightmare.  But, for those who have managed to successfully politicize a make-believe crisis into a catastrophe waiting to happen, you have to do the best you can with what you have to work with.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2006, 09:44:45 AM by Jackal1 »
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Offline Angus

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #154 on: September 16, 2006, 10:32:28 AM »
Was that winter as cold as 1941 - 1942.

BTW where I am we have 22 deg Celcius in the shade,- it is 15:26 and its the middle of september.

No frost for 4 months now, all the berries are ripe and undamaged, no autumn colour on the trees, Mt Hekla hardly has ANY snow on her, - in short, a day I've never seen that time of year.

Of course there are swings and spikes, we know that, and of course measurments and calculations are never completely accurate, and thereby somewhat debateable.

But, when it comes to snowlines, icemass and water temps (Much more mass and thereby more power than air temp) it's beyond that.
Which means, that the overall impact is: Warming.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #155 on: September 17, 2006, 08:42:53 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus

BTW where I am we have 22 deg Celcius in the shade,- it is 15:26 and its the middle of september.
 


Sounds like a really nice day. Enjoy.

Quote
No frost for 4 months now, all the berries are ripe and undamaged, no autumn colour on the trees, Mt Hekla hardly has ANY snow on her, - in short, a day I've never seen that time of year.


Great. I`d use the weather changes to your advantage. Pick some of those berries. Enjoy the warmth. Be a good time for a mountain hike.

Quote
Of course there are swings and spikes


Yea. Changing weather patterns. Norm.

Quote
and of course measurments and calculations are never completely accurate


Yea. The global warming for lunch bunch is more than proof of that. They have changed horses in the middle of the stream so many times the thouroughbreds now wear lifejackets. :)

Quote
and thereby somewhat debateable.


Somewhat? :rofl  Like...........the earth is falt is "somewhat" debateable.

Quote
But, when it comes to snowlines, icemass and water temps (Much more mass and thereby more power than air temp) it's beyond that.Which means, that the overall impact is: Warming


When I stand too close to my BBQ grill the imapact is: Warming. But it`s not global. Changing weather patterns. No biggy. It`s mother nature`s way. always has been.
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Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #156 on: September 17, 2006, 08:47:26 PM »
MYTH #1: 'Humanity is the Primary Cause of Global Climate Change.'


 Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences at Ottawa's Carleton University, says this is very unlikely. The geologic record reveals that the only constant about climate is change. Long before our species inhabited the Earth, there were far more extreme changes in climate than what we see now. In the past million years, the Earth has been subjected to at least 33 ice ages and interglacial warm periods where temperatures soared far above that ever recorded in humanity's short history. Patterson and others show that, even in the past thousand years, there were periods much warmer and colder than today.

      More than 90 percent of Earth's history, conditions were much warmer than today. Two million years ago forests extended nearly to the North Pole. As recently as 125,000 years ago, temperatures were high enough that hippopotami and other animals now found only in Africa made their homes in northern Europe.

However, over the last 1.6 million years, it has generally been much cooler than this, with periodic rapid fluctuations from cooler to warmer intervals known as interglaciations. The causes of these dramatic climate variations include continental drift, changes in ocean/atmospheric circulation, natural wobbles in the Earth's orbit called Milankovitch cycles and variations in solar energy.

Despite a 0.7 degree C warming that has occurred over the past century (as much warming occurred before 1940 as since then, even though the large majority of the CO2 buildup in the atmosphere occurred after 1940) , overall, global temperatures have dropped about 2°C over the past 5,000 years (depending on latitude: a 6 degree C drop in some Arctic areas; a 0.5 degree C drop in some lower latitudes). Another ice age is expected to begin within the next few thousand years and so any gradual global warming could be a blessing, as it could delay the onset of the next glacial period, or at least reduce its severity.”
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MYTH #1C: 'Climate Change is Occurring at an Unprecedented Rate.'

 Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology) at Carleton University explains that it is a serious mistake to regard the natural climate cycle as tranquil and predictable. In fact, there is no reason to believe that current rates of temperature change are in any way different to what one would expect due to entirely natural causes. Dr. Patterson says that, by examining Greenland ice cores, scientists have found breathtakingly sudden variations in climate throughout the geologic record.

“About 15,000 years ago, while the planet was still emerging from the last ice age, Greenland’s temperature rose by 9°C in only 50 years,” explains Dr. Patterson. “Once, 12,000 years ago, the temperature rose an astonishing 8°C in a single decade.”

Recent European data suggests that even more severe climate fluctuations occurred at the end of the previous interglacial warm period. Their data shows that temperatures varied from warmer than they are today to the coldest of the ice age in merely a few decades, and then bounced back up again over the next century or so. Dr. Patterson sums up - "the only thing constant about climate is change."

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MYTH #3a (a corollary to Myth #3): 'Historical Records Confirm That Global Warming Has Resulted From Increasing Levels of CO2 in Our Atmosphere.'

 The hypothesis that rising CO2 levels result in a direct increase in temperature originated in 1896 with Swedish chemist, Svante Arrhenius. However, the concept was abandoned in the 1940s because global temperatures had not even remotely matched the 1°C rise predicted by the theory. Since then, the rate of global warming has slowed despite the acceleration in industrialization and CO2 emissions.

Considerable evidence now supports the carbon cycle modelers' assumption that atmospheric CO2 levels respond to temperature changes, not the reverse:

   1.

      Ice core records show that at the end of each of the last three major ice ages, temperatures rose several hundred years before CO2 levels increased.
   2.

      At the beginning of the most recent glacial period about 114,000 years ago, CO2 remained relatively high until long after temperatures plummeted.
   3.

      Global average CO2 levels have been found to lag behind changes in tropical sea surface temperature by six to eight months. As the ocean warms, it is unable to hold as much CO2 in solution and consequently releases the gas into the atmosphere contributing to the observed CO2 level rise.

Climatologists Marcel Fligge and Sami Solanki demonstrated in the respected journal, Geophysical Research Letters, that the warming or cooling of the Earth during the past four centuries closely matches variations in the Sun's brightness. Whether they were looking at the Little Ice Age, the rapid warming in the early part of the twentieth century, or the relatively unchanging temperatures of recent decades, our star's output and global temperatures were closely correlated. NASA's Paal Brekke explains, "...the Sun may be a much more important contributor to global climate change than previously assumed."

Finally, recent publications in the prestigious journals, "Science" and "Paleoceanography" show that CO2 levels were higher at the end of the last ice age than during the much warmer Eocene period, 43 million years earlier. These studies also found that CO2 levels are far higher today than they were during the relatively hot Miocene period, 17 million years ago.

Clearly, variations in the Sun's brightness should be far more interesting to those concerned about future climate change than the relatively trivial and inconsistent effect of changes in atmospheric CO2 levels - see Myth #3 for more on this point.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2006, 09:03:08 PM by Jackal1 »
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Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #157 on: September 17, 2006, 08:59:26 PM »
Myth #1a: 'Computer Models Show Catastrophic Warming in the Future.'


 The modern global warming debate was ignited in 1989 when NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen testified before a joint U.S. House and Senate committee that there was "a strong cause and effect relationship between the current climate" - then a blistering drought - "and human alteration of the atmosphere." His computer models predicted an average global temperature rise of 0.45C between 1988 and 1997 and 8C by 2050 due to greenhouse gas build-up. Despite enormous uncertainties in his simulations, it wasn't long before the politically correct view of the future included a global warming catastrophe.

Yet today, Hansen admits that his computer simulations were wrong and that current climate change models are unreliable (see related article by climatologist Dr. Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia). After the U.S. spent $10 billion on this issue, Hansen wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, "The forces that drive long-term climate changes are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate changes." As more and more variables have been incorporated into the models, the amount of predicted change has decreased. Renowned Columbia University oceanographer/climatologist Dr. Wallace Broecker believes that more than one million variables influence climate change. Although not all are required to reasonably model climate, this fact underlines why contemporary computer simulations are not very accurate.

The problem is also due to the fact that, even though water vapor is the major greenhouse gas, it is essentially ignored by climate models. These simulations are so primitive that they are even unable to determine today's climate when starting with known past temperatures and rates of CO2 level rise.

Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology) at Carleton University, explains that, despite these obvious flaws, much of the current debate on global warming has been hijacked by theorists, relying primarily on these inaccurate models but working with little actual data. With the support of biologists, who generally lack a proper understanding of long-term climate dynamics, mass media and government have treated the more extreme of these theoretical scenarios as credible indicators of future environmental change, which they clearly are not.

Dr. Michaels puts the controversy into perspective: Temperatures measured by surface thermometers have risen about 0.7C in the last 100 years, but about half of that warming occurred before most changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The other half, which has occurred in the last three decades, is often attributed to human causation."

If this is true, then we have a very good idea of future warming, says Dr. Michaels. While global climate models are incapable of predicting the distribution of regional and vertical climate change, they generally agree that once human-induced warming begins, it takes place at a constant (not increasing) rate. This is because the response of temperature to carbon dioxide becomes damped at higher concentrations, while it is generally assumed that the carbon dioxide increase itself is exponential, along with population. The mathematical combination of the two is a straight line.

Dr. Michaels concludes that the resultant warming predicted by these computer models works out to approximately 1.6C in the next 100 years. "Half of this amount, in the last 100 years, saw a doubling of life span and a quintupling of crop yields where economic freedom reigned," he says. "There is no reason to expect a sudden turnaround; rather, continued adaptation and prosperity are much more likely."

Dr. Roger Pocklington of the Bedford Institute of Oceanography says, "Professional doomsayers always pick the least likely, upper extremity, of the temperature range for their polemics, never the average." They also never explain that most of the computer models forecast much lower temperatures and that the average of these models is more in the range cited by Dr. Michaels.

Dr. Michaels concludes, "Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide [the primary driver of temperature change in the computer models] have been much slower than anticipated by virtually all scientists 25 years ago. The increases are so small that they may not even be exponential. This predicts a damping of the already-small warming rate in coming decades."

A good illustration of how poorly today's Global Climate Models (GCMs) perform is obtained by comparing the rise in global average temperatures actually measured over the past two decades with how the GCMs used by the IPCC 'predict' they should have increased. As evident in the following graph (where measured temperature rise is indicated as an averaged trend) even the most conservative of the models used by the IPCC 'predict' significantly greater temperature rises than what actually occurred. How can we put any faith in the IPCC's predictions for the future when their forecasts are based solely on such inaccurate GCMs?

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Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #158 on: September 17, 2006, 09:00:17 PM »
MYTH #2: 'Recent Global Temperature Rise Has Been Dramatic.'

 Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences at Carleton University and others show that in the past thousand years, there were periods much warmer and colder than today, long before we began burning significant quantities of fossil fuels. (An important March 2003 Harvard University announcement confirms this). The following graph puts this in perspective (NOTE: The Sargaso Sea is a two million square mile ellipse in the North Atlantic that has been studied for centuries - its temperature variations generally indicate global trends and agree with the even longer (6,000 year) Chinese peat bog records.):

From about 900 to 1300 AD, during the Medieval Warm Period, the Earth was warmer than it is today. In the 20th Century the global average surface temperature rose about 0.7oC, after a five hundred year cool period called the Little Ice Age. Only the 20th Century warming trend may have a human component attributable to fossil fuel use, which increased sharply after 1940. A closer look at the 20th century temperature record shows three distinct trends: First, a warming trend of about 0.5oC began in the late 19th century and peaked around 1940. Next, temperature decreased from 1940 until the late 1970's - fears of a coming glacial period dominated during the '70s when Iceland's fisheries were destroyed by advancing sea ice, winters in North America were unusually cold and it was first realized that global temperatures had fallen steadily between 1940 and 1975. Then a third warming trend occurred from 1976 to 1986, after which the increase becomes very small. The largest portion of the warming for the second half of the 20th century was limited mainly to winter in the coldest continental air masses of Siberia and northwestern North America.

So where do environmental groups get the idea that our planet has warmed dramatically in recent decades? The answer is simple - they are using the wrong data. Instead of citing modern, accurate, space-based measurements, they quote error-prone, ground-based temperature readings that give little indication of true global trends.

Until recently the best we could do to estimate the Earth's overall temperature was to average data collected at ground stations around the globe. These readings are notoriously inaccurate as most of them come from developing countries that do not properly maintain their stations or records. In addition, there are two other problems with data collected at the Earth's surface.

First, nearly all of these stations are land-based, even though three quarters of our planet is covered with water. There are far too few temperature-sensing buoys deployed at sea to give an even remotely accurate assessment of atmospheric temperature trends in these vast areas. This is especially significant in the Southern Hemisphere, which is 90 percent ocean.

Second, urban sprawl has enveloped many temperature sensing stations in "heat islands" significantly warmer that the surrounding countryside. The warming measured at these sites is therefore problematic in determining global trends.

The only way to properly take the planet's temperature is to use sophisticated space-based sensors mounted aboard Earth-orbiting satellites. Dr. Tim Patterson, Dr. Pat Michaels, professor of climatology at the University of Virginia, Dr. John Christy, Professor and Director, Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama, and many others explain that these far more accurate and comprehensive satellite temperature sensors reveal a statistically significant, but very small, temperature rise since measurements began in 1979. Dr. Christy says the trend is about 0.07oC per decade, right at the edge of statistical significance and certainly far too small to be noticeable.
With the exception of the recent El Nio warming event (temperatures quickly dropped to normal), both balloon and satellite data have shown only a minute rise in the planet's average temperature over the past two decades.

In the final analysis, the Earth is warming ... and it is getting colder and it is staying the same. It all depends on what time frame you are speaking about and where (and how) you look.

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MYTH #1b: 'The Consensus of World Scientists, as Revealed by the UN's IPCC, Agree - Humanity is Causing Significant Climate Change.'

  "There is of course no consensus at all," according to Dr. Fred Singer, President of The Science & Environmental Policy Project and Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia. "There isn't even a consensus on whether the atmosphere is currently warming -- never mind on whether humanity should be held responsible."

Most people don't realize that there are in fact two parts to the IPCC report - a large science section (the 'main report') which is a description of research activities in climate science, as well as a highly politicized "Summary for Policymakers". The summary is what is commonly quoted in the media and by those supporting Kyoto. They present it as the consensus of thousands of the world's foremost climate scientists. In fact, it is no such thing. It only represents a consensus of government representatives (many of whom are also their nations' Kyoto representatives), NGO's and business, rather than of scientists. The Summary for Policymakers has a strong tendency to disguise uncertainty and presents frightening scenarios for which there is no evidence.

Dr. Philip Stott, Professor Emeritus of Biogeography at the University of London (England), explains, "The whole feel of the IPCC report differs between its political summary and the scientific sections. It comes as a shock to read the following in the conclusions to the science part: "In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear system, and therefore that the prediction of a specific future climate is not possible." - quite a contrast to the alarmism of the Summary for Policymakers.

Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and one of the lead authors of the science sections of the IPCC report, has scathingly described the summary as "very much a children's exercise of what might possibly happen," prepared by a "peculiar group" with "no technical competence." Professor Lindzen further described the inept and unethical behaviour of the IPCC in preparing their reports in his May 2, 2001 testimony to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee - the full transcript of that testimony can be viewed at http://www.senate.gov/%7Eepw/lin_0502.htm. On hearing about Canada's Minister of the Environment David Anderson's confidence in the dramatic conclusions of the IPCC summary report, Dr. Lindzen laughed, "There is a certain charm when politicians are so certain of the science when the scientists are not."

"The UN IPCC WG1 Summary for Policymakers of the Third Assessment Report is not an assessment of climate change science, even though it claims to be," sums up climate specialist, Dr. David Wojick. "Rather, it is an artfully constructed presentation of just the science that supports the fear of human induced climate change. In short, this is advocacy, not assessment." *

Even the science part of the IPCC report is suspect. "It is absolutely remarkable how inferior and one-sided this report is," said Dr. Nils Axel-Mrner, Professor of Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics at Stockholm University. "Where are all the real sea level specialists from our Commission and from IGCP? They have had little or nothing to say in this report. If science is treated in this way, it is bound to go wrong."

Dr. Tim Ball, environmental consultant and a climatology professor for 25 years at the University of Winnipeg explains that these problems have resulted in many of the scientists who were originally part of the IPCC process withdrawing. "What most people don't understand is that all IPCC 'predictions' are based on computer models that assume, with no reasonable justification, a doubling of CO2," says Dr. Ball. "Every single prediction they have made has been incorrect."

When Dr. Ball appeared before the Canadian Federal government's Standing Committee on the Environment he experienced the whip of political correctness when he tried to explain the problems with some of their beliefs about atmospheric science. "Galileo would be ashamed of you!" chastised Marlene Catterall, Liberal Member of Parliament for Ottawa West-Nepean. Ms. Catterall was apparently unaware that Galileo continually challenged orthodoxy and would have chaffed at today's politically correct science. Regardless, Parliamentarians should be seeking the advice of leading experts in the field, not trying to muzzle them.
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Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #159 on: September 17, 2006, 09:02:14 PM »
MYTH #3: 'The Buildup of Human Induced Greenhouse Gases, and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in Particular, Will Cause a Catastrophic Planetary Warming.'


 The hypothesis that rising CO2 levels result in a direct increase in temperature originated in 1896 with Swedish chemist, Svante Arrhenius. However, the concept was abandoned in the 1940s because global temperatures had not even remotely matched the 1C rise predicted by the theory. Since then, the rate of global warming has slowed despite the acceleration in industrialization and CO2 emissions.

A good example of the sort of misinformation that is being publicized regarding this topic is seen in the following quote from Dr. (Zoology) David Suzuki in the June 21, 2002 version of his "Science Matters" column that appeared in newspapers across Canada: "Increased concentration of carbon dioxide, the most important heat-trapping gas, has pushed up global temperatures, which will continue to rise unless emissions are stabilized and reduced."

Dr. Tim Ball, environmental consultant and climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg for 32 years, responds, "The Suzuki comment displays an ignorance of climate science. Even the Greenpeace report on global warming concedes that water vapour is the most abundant and most important greenhouse gas. Water vapour is ignored because the models can't include clouds. Imagine recommending devastating economic and therefore social policy based on a climate model that can't even include clouds!" In fact, CO2 is less than 3 percent of greenhouse gases (GHG). Water vapor constitutes 97 percent. Other GHG are methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and trace gases.

It is very revealing that an increase in the production of water vapor at the equator during the 1998 El Nio climate event caused worldwide average temperatures to spike by almost 1C that year. The human contribution to the atmosphere's total water vapor content is trivial by comparison. A study by Dr. Kevin Telmer, Assistant Professor in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria, and Dr. Jan Veizer, Professor of Geology at the University of Ottawa, demonstrates that the larger amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere at higher temperature permit more CO2 to be absorbed by plants (see http://www.spacedaily.com/news/greenhouse-00zf.html). Thus, we have a self-regulating system that helps keep the climate in check.

Of the 0.7C global temperature rise in the past century, half of it occurred before 1940, although most of the buildup in human-induced CO2 has occurred since then. It is also important to understand that our Sun, the ultimate source of all atmospheric warmth, is currently brighter than at any time in the past 400 years. Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology) at Carleton University concludes, "With our star's variability accounting for about half of all the recorded warming in the last hundred years, only 0.3C is left over for everything else, including urbanization and land use. The amount is even less if an additional 0.1-0.2C of natural temperature fluctuation is factored in. If increased C02 levels have contributed to global warming at all in the past century, its contribution must have been very minor indeed."

Dr. Sallie Baliunas and Dr. Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics blame variations in the Sun's brightness, not CO2 levels, for most of Earth's climate change. This idea is further supported by climatologists Marcel Fligge and Sami Solanki who demonstrated in a recent edition of the respected journal, Geophysical Research Letters, that the warming or cooling of the Earth during the past four centuries closely matches variations in the Sun's brightness. Whether they were looking at the Little Ice Age of the latter seventeenth century, the rapid warming in the early part of the twentieth century or the relatively unchanging temperatures of recent decades, our star's output and global temperatures were closely correlated. NASA's Paal Brekke explains, "... the Sun may be a much more important contributor to global climate change than previously assumed." Dr. Ball sums up, "Ignoring the Sun and water vapor as causes of climate change is like ignoring the transmission and engine when the car is not working."

Like carbon cycle modelers, Dr. Ball and Dr. Veizer believe that CO2 merely responds to temperature changes; it does not cause them. Here is some of the evidence that supports this hypothesis:

   1. Global mean atmospheric concentration of CO2 has been found to lag behind changes in tropical sea surface (and hence atmospheric) temperature by six to eight months. As the ocean warms, it is unable to hold as much CO2 in solution and consequently releases the gas into the atmosphere contributing to the observed CO2 level rise;
   2. Ice core records show that, at the end of each of the last three major ice ages, atmospheric temperatures rose several hundred years before CO2 levels finally increased;
   3. At the beginning of the most recent glacial period, about 114,000 years ago, atmospheric CO2 remained relatively high even as temperatures plummeted.

Finally, recent publications in the prestigious journals, "Science" and "Paleoceanography" show that CO2 levels were higher at the end of the last ice age than during the much warmer Eocene period, 43 million years earlier. These studies also found that CO2 levels are far higher today than they were during the relatively hot Miocene period, 17 million years ago.
Clearly, variations in the Sun's brightness should be far more interesting to those concerned about future climate change than the relatively trivial and inconsistent effect of changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.
Dr. Petr Chylek, Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, concludes, "It is highly probable that global average temperature will go up and down during future years regardless of what we do."

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More to come. Stay tuned. :)
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Offline Angus

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #160 on: September 18, 2006, 08:12:57 AM »
And myth #4, Glaciers are retreating :D
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #161 on: September 19, 2006, 09:01:23 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
And myth #4, Glaciers are retreating :D


Nope. That`s your bag Angus. :)

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MYTH #4: 'If the Earth Warms, It Will Be Disastrous for the Environment and Human Society.'



 Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology) at Carleton University, and climate historian Hubert H. Lamb demonstrate that during warm periods civilization flourished and weather was more moderate. In cold periods, there was more drought, famine, wars and disease.

Between 900 and 1300 A.D., the Earth warmed 1 to 2°C; , depending on latitude - approximately what climate models now predict for the 21st century. This warming resulted in one of the most favorable periods in history. Food production surged due to mild winters and longer growing seasons. Primary agricultural regions had fewer droughts and floods so human populations rose accordingly. When Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder in 980 AD, he was fortunate that his banishment coincided with this unusually warm climatic period. Open sea-lanes allowed him to make his way to a wholly new and, at the time, reasonably hospitable land - calling it "Greenland" was not just an advertising gimmick to attract settlers. The pioneers who followed Erik had a reasonable prospect of prosperity in this new world. They raised sheep and cattle brought with them from Iceland and even grew grain.

However, about 1350, the weather began to cool. Crops failed and the settlers became increasingly dependent on supplies shipped in from Europe. Eventually, sea ice started to restrict shipping and, during the 15th century, the colonists were cut off from the outside world. Recent archaeological evidence shows a sad end to the westernmost outpost of the marauding Vikings - with the ground staying frozen throughout most, and finally all, of the year, famine-weakened Norsemen eventually could not even properly bury their own dead. The "Little Ice Age" had begun and the Greenland settlements were wiped out as effectively as the Vikings themselves had reduced many a European coastal town to ashes in raids of previous centuries.

With average temperature dropping 1.5 over the next hundred years, Iceland and Eastern Europe were depopulated and famines periodically ravaged much of Western Europe. Ice caps began to develop in the Arctic. Glaciers advanced throughout the Alps. Little Ice Age cooling was global in extent - evidence has been found in western North America from Alaska into the continental U.S., as well as in China, the Andes Mountains, New Zealand and equatorial Kenya. Wildly erratic and frigid conditions continued until the mid-19th century, when skating parties on London's Thames River finally had to be abandoned as conditions gradually warmed to those of the mid 1300s. Nevertheless, the 10th century, when Eric the Red settled Greenland, was still over 1°C warmer than the 20th century. This is worth remembering when we hear alarmist claims about today's temperatures.

Severe as it seemed to those who suffered during those centuries of cold winters, the Little Ice Age may prove to be minor indeed in comparison with what is in store for us if our climate follows past trends as expected (see Myth #1). In the last 1.6 million years there have been 33 glacial advances and retreats. It was only ten millennia ago, when humans were fashioning flint spearheads to hunt the last wooly bison and carving flint sickles to work our first farms, that massive ice sheets, some up to a mile thick, finally retreated from Europe and North America. As noted historian Norman Pounds has said, "The whole of human history has been lived in the shadow of the Ice Age."

Considering the massive impact cold periods have had on civilization, we have to wonder if global warming concerns of the past two decades have been overblown. Is the warming since the late 19th century due to natural oscillations, well recorded throughout geologic history, or is it due to industrialization? Since current conditions are only slightly warmer than those at the end of the last major ice age, were we saved from glacial devastation by industrialization?

No one truly knows the answer to these questions. However, what we do know is that the next glaciation, due within a few thousand years, is part of a natural climate cycle that is expected to continue for at least several million years more. The nature of our planet's orbital dynamics and position of the continents as they influence ocean circulation are the main controls, not human activities. Based on the impact of the 1350-1880 Little Ice Age, it is apparent that humankind, and particularly Northern countries such as Canada, benefits much more from a warmer climate than a cooler one.
Democracy is two wolves deciding on what to eat. Freedom is a well armed sheep protesting the vote.
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Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #162 on: September 19, 2006, 09:04:55 AM »
MYTH #5 - 'Extreme Weather Events are Expected to be More Common if the World Warms. This Has Already Started - Drought, Floods, Forest Fires, etc. are on the Rise as a Result of Our Greenhouse Gas

 Dr. Madhav Khandekar, a meteorologist with 25 years experience at Environment Canada, showed in a study about to be published that extreme weather events (heat waves, floods, winter blizzards, thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes) are not currently increasing anywhere in Canada. "Extreme weather events are definitely on the decline over the last 40 years," concludes Dr. Khandekar.

He shows that the hottest summers of the 20th century in Canada were during the dust bowl years of the 1920s and the 1930s, not the 1990s. Dr. Khandekar summarizes, "The observed climate change of the last 50 years is beneficial to most regions of Canada in terms of lower heating costs and an enjoyable climate."

According to Dr. John Christy, Professor and Director, Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama, the frequency of hurricanes, thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes have not increased in recent years either. Weather just seems unusual and dangerous these days because of media focus. If the planet warms, the temperature differential between the Earth's poles and equatorial regions will drop, resulting in weather that is even more tranquil. The geologic record clearly shows that today's climate is in no way extraordinary or identifiably different from what one would expect due to entirely natural processes.
The same is true of droughts. Dr. Christy explains, "When looking back over the past 2,000 years we see that the most significant droughts in the Southwestern U.S., for example, occurred prior to 1600." Dr Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology) at Carleton University, maintains that the present drought on the Canadian prairies is part of a natural cycle that has gone on for thousands of years. "There are many droughts that are documented to have been much worse than the present one, and long before the initiation of human produced greenhouse gases," Dr. Patterson explains. "The worst drought (in Canada) in the last 1,000 years lasted from 1680-1720 during an episode of cold from which we only began to recover in the 1890s." Not surprisingly, in previous centuries, North America's great plains were referred to as the 'Great American Desert,' an area that should not be extensively farmed, specialists recommended.

But what about the frightening predictions of computer models we keep hearing about? Dr. Tom Wigley of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Science explains, "There is no consensus between (computer) models on changes in... temperature and precipitation. Even the best models perform poorly in simulating such variability."

Sir John Houghton, chief scientist of the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), agrees and adds, "...there is little agreement between models on... changes in storminess...Conclusions regarding extreme events are obviously even more uncertain."

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Don`t touch that dial. More to come. :)
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Offline lazs2

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #163 on: September 19, 2006, 09:05:11 AM »
great info jackal.   I knew you were good for something.

lazs

Offline Jackal1

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Ice bubbles reveal biggest rise in CO2 for 800,000 years
« Reply #164 on: September 19, 2006, 09:11:06 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
great info jackal.   I knew you were good for something.

lazs


The wife says she disagrees. :)
Democracy is two wolves deciding on what to eat. Freedom is a well armed sheep protesting the vote.
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