It's Like the Hydra

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by FrodeMk3
I think the gist of the whole point that Tigress' was trying to make, was that Hydrogen Fuel Cells, or Hydrogen ICE's (Internal Combustion Engines) might be the way to quit using foreign oil, Mainly of Middle Eastern production, and to thus be rid of any political concerns with the Arabs.

That is exactly what I am saying. I am not saying Hydrogen refined from H2O using renewable power sources to perform the hydrolizing process is presently cheaper than or as cheap as gasoline... I do believe its costs will come down as demand goes up... it’s the capitalism way... reduce costs; increase profits.

I am suggesting serious acceleration of bringing Hydrogen hydrolyzed from H2O into the market to eliminate oil imports all together. Screw the Middle East and their oil forever. grrr

We put the Communism of the USSR out of business with a war of economics... we can do the same with the Islamic Regimes of Threat to Humanity out of business as well.

In other words, bring down the Hydra by totally ceasing world consumption of their oil.

TIGERESS

[lazs2]

arlo... again, as usual you show a lack of understanding and history.  

WWII rationing was for a cause that was real.   It was also a short term thing with an end defined (the winning or losing of the war).  A dirty little secret was that some of it was bs anyway and not needed but gave people a sense of unity.

At the end of the war... well.... let the good times roll.. better than before in fact.

In the case of global warming.. there is no proof we are having any significant effect or... that even if we were... that we could do anything about it...that any rationing  would help or that there would be any end to it.   And....

There is no need... the free market will develop ways to power our lifestyle that don't depend on the oil we see now.   As nukes are built.. power will be cheaper...as solar develops.. it will become cheaper yet...

In the mean time.. we need to drill for oil in alaska and off shore.

rationing and lowering lifestyles bring their own problems.. worldwide socialism just means everyone is broke with no hope out.

It is a bleak prospect and most people say "hell no".. the socialists know this so have come up with a planet buster...  "our very survival" that kind of bs.  Look at the hysteria and lies that have been spread about our current warming trend and the cooling trend that happened 30 years ago.

lazs

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by lazs2
arlo... again, as usual you show a lack of understanding and history.  

WWII rationing was for a cause that was real.   It was also a short term thing with an end defined (the winning or losing of the war).  A dirty little secret was that some of it was bs anyway and not needed but gave people a sense of unity.

At the end of the war... well.... let the good times roll.. better than before in fact.

In the case of global warming.. there is no proof we are having any significant effect or... that even if we were... that we could do anything about it...that any rationing  would help or that there would be any end to it.   And....

There is no need... the free market will develop ways to power our lifestyle that don't depend on the oil we see now.   As nukes are built.. power will be cheaper...as solar develops.. it will become cheaper yet...

In the mean time.. we need to drill for oil in alaska and off shore.

rationing and lowering lifestyles bring their own problems.. worldwide socialism just means everyone is broke with no hope out.

It is a bleak prospect and most people say "hell no".. the socialists know this so have come up with a planet buster...  "our very survival" that kind of bs.  Look at the hysteria and lies that have been spread about our current warming trend and the cooling trend that happened 30 years ago.

lazs

Let me add to that...

If we reduce our consumption of Middle East (Hydra) oil by 50% then expect a 50% increase in the price of Hydra oil as a result.... thus an attendant 50% increase in the supply lifetime of the Hydra’s oil reserves.

The Hydra would still be funded by its oil sales an attendant 50% longer extension of their funding lifetime.

Total cessation of their oil market will stop the flow of oil dollars into the pockets of the Hydra.

American lawmakers apparently want to protect American oil business from loss of profits thus they are currently harping... conserve, conserve, conserve... looks good on the surface... not the solution to the threat of the Hydra when you dig deeper.

The squaring off of American automakers with the American Oil companies is interesting. I would not suprise me to see the US automakers create a Hydrogen infrastructure and tell the Oil companies to go screw.

TIGERESS

[Nashwan]

I am suggesting serious acceleration of bringing Hydrogen hydrolyzed from H2O into the market to eliminate oil imports all together.

About 40% of US energy comes from oil. To replace it, especially considering the inefficiency of converting to hydrogen, would require twice as much coal, gas and nuclear power as now.

And that would still leave you powering cars with hydrogen that costs much more than gasoline, even without factoring in the cost of converting the current oil infrastructure.

There is no need... the free market will develop ways to power our lifestyle that don't depend on the oil we see now.

The free market cannot build an alternative energy infrastructure whilst oil is so cheap. The problem is, it will take many years to convert from oil, and the free market cannot begin to do so until oil becomes scarce.

If we are unlucky, oil could become scarce quickly, for example a major war in the Middle East. In that case, it will take years for the free market to build alternatives, and those years will be painful.

Of course, we could get lucky. The decline in oil might be gradual, although the lack of transparency in actual oil reserves, and the demands of China, make that unlikely. Technology might almost solve the problem overnight, for example by producing a worthwhile battery.

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by Nashwan
About 40% of US energy comes from oil. To replace it, especially considering the inefficiency of converting to hydrogen, would require twice as much coal, gas and nuclear power as now.

And that would still leave you powering cars with hydrogen that costs much more than gasoline, even without factoring in the cost of converting the current oil infrastructure.



The free market cannot build an alternative energy infrastructure whilst oil is so cheap. The problem is, it will take many years to convert from oil, and the free market cannot begin to do so until oil becomes scarce.

If we are unlucky, oil could become scarce quickly, for example a major war in the Middle East. In that case, it will take years for the free market to build alternatives, and those years will be painful.

Of course, we could get lucky. The decline in oil might be gradual, although the lack of transparency in actual oil reserves, and the demands of China, make that unlikely. Technology might almost solve the problem overnight, for example by producing a worthwhile battery.

"The free market cannot build an alternative energy infrastructure whilst oil is so cheap."

cannot? or will not?

I think we are brainwashed.

In my view, we are in a war of economics with the Hydra and they are WINNING... because of greed on our part.

I suggest reading up on the reasons for the last 5 increases in our national debt ceiling, the lastest one being elevated to almost $9 Trillion Dollars.

It was set at $5.6 trillion at the time Bush took office.

I am not a political partisan... I am Pro-America and believe in capitolism...

Is this a case of "Borrow and Spend" to avoid "Tax and Spend"?

Who will eventually pay the interest and the $9 Trillion in debt here?

How much is the interest payments on a $9 Trillion dollar loan and how long will the interest be paid?

Who is lending the money?

This is a war of economics with the Hydra.

So far, they are whipping us soundly, in my view.

TIGERESS

[lazs2]

nashwan.. for once I do not totally disagree with you.  Oil will get scarcer.. some conservation will come by mere price..  not so much useless plastic on $1 items you buy... people driving less or driving more fuel effcient cars.

some improvement short term will come from coal and shale and exploration and drilling.

long term... nuke plants.. off the grid solar and solar hybrid on the grid.   plug in electric cars to your personal free electric source and we drop dependency by more than half.

We were told that when oil reached $75 a barrel it would make sense to convert oil shale and to go after hard to get and refine oil.. and convert coal.. that isn't happening but.. it could as price goes up further.

It all looks rosy to me.

so long as we keep the socialists out of it.

lazs

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Score (relative to others) has nothing to do with happiness.

I can be happy breaking 90 for 18 holes, but a score of 88 would not make Phil Michelson a happy camper.

I can teach you how to break 90 but that would be an off-topic discussion

Yes, women play golf and shoot in the low to mid 80s.
That is something my EX and I enjoyed together.

I miss him dearly but his accompanying progressive alcoholism was more than I could bear.

TIGERESS

[Nashwan]

cannot? or will not?

Cannot. How do you sell hydrogen cars to people when they cost more to buy and more to run, than gasoline powered cars? How do you build the infrastructure to produce and supply the hydrogen when no one will buy the cars that use it?

If you want to replace gasoline, you have to have at least some advantages. More expensive, less convenient isn't much of a selling point.

some conservation will come by mere price.. not so much useless plastic on $1 items you buy... people driving less or driving more fuel effcient cars.

20 years ago that might have been enough. Use would reduce gradually as price gradually increased.

But China changes that. Their growth in oil consumption is going to dwarf gradual reductions in western consumption. Same with India in a few years.

Oil isn't going to run out, but the price will have a major effect on western economies.

We were told that when oil reached $75 a barrel it would make sense to convert oil shale and to go after hard to get and refine oil.. and convert coal.. that isn't happening but.. it could as price goes up further.

Time is the problem. From deciding to invest, to actually completing the huge plants needed, takes many years. Canadian oil sands production is about 1 million barrels a day now, forecast to reach 2 million barrels by 2010, and 4 million by 2015.

World oil consumption grew by about 10 million barrels a day over the last 8 years, which puts the forecast growth into perspective.

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by Nashwan
Cannot. How do you sell hydrogen cars to people when they cost more to buy and more to run, than gasoline powered cars? How do you build the infrastructure to produce and supply the hydrogen when no one will buy the cars that use it?

If you want to replace gasoline, you have to have at least some advantages. More expensive, less convenient isn't much of a selling point.



20 years ago that might have been enough. Use would reduce gradually as price gradually increased.

But China changes that. Their growth in oil consumption is going to dwarf gradual reductions in western consumption. Same with India in a few years.

Oil isn't going to run out, but the price will have a major effect on western economies.



Time is the problem. From deciding to invest, to actually completing the huge plants needed, takes many years. Canadian oil sands production is about 1 million barrels a day now, forecast to reach 2 million barrels by 2010, and 4 million by 2015.

World oil consumption grew by about 10 million barrels a day over the last 8 years, which puts the forecast growth into perspective.

Let me answer that in part with a question if you will allow me...

How did the automobile replace the horse and buggy?

TIGERESS

edit: From a previous post to this thread:

Originally posted by Tigeress

President Bush's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative:

A Clean and Secure Energy Future

"A simple chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen generates energy, which can be used to power a car producing only water, not exhaust fumes. With a new national commitment, our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom so that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen, and pollution-free. Join me in this important innovation to make our air significantly cleaner, and our country much less dependent on foreign sources of energy."

— President Bush, State of the Union Address, January 28, 2003

http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pres...initiative.html

I believe when enough immediate importance is placed on ACCELERATING this, we will be independent of foreign oil dependence for the security of the nation.

There has been too much money to be made in oil to have placed national security needs over the easy money of oil.

We went to the moon in 1969 because it was deemed a national priority to do so.

TIGERESS

[Tigeress]

Ohio Gozi Masu

Dang, just got a phone call from the company CEO asking me to jump on a plane and go to Japan for a short project there... never a dull moment.

I like to drive a plane... cattle car class to Japan and back is NOT high on my list of fun things to do.

My posting is going to be spotty till I get back. He wants me to leave tomorrow. Now I have to go get my hair done asap

TIGERESS

[texasmom]

Have a safe & fun trip

[Tigeress]

Hi TxMom!

Hair appointment is 4pm east coast time... not my usual girl but it's the girl who does my usual girl's hair. TG I didn't have to go to strangers!

Just had my nails (acrylics) done a few days ago so that's off my stress list

This trip is to Yokohama; first time there but have spent time working in Toyko and its near Toyko... shuttle bus from Narita airport. Travel comes with the job. I have money from all over the world I wind up bringing home. Guess I can check my local Yen supply. lol

These guys at work have no idea what a stresser it is for us on a last minute's notice trip. sigh... lucky them!

I'll take the little laptop with the worn off keys lol, not this big clunker of a laptop I use to fly with.

TIGERESS

[lazs2]

nashwan... I just don't see things as grim as you do...  I see the fact that as long as oil is cheaper than anything else... that is a good thing..  whatever is cheapest is a good thing.

At the same time...  more and more alternatives are being refined (no pun intended) as with solar and wind and nuclear.

as these things make power an "all you can eat for a flat rate" kinda deal for electrical... more and more will have "free" electric cars for most driving...

Hybrids are not really worth it..  but they are selling in record numbers..  a plug in hybrid with a free, or nearly free, electrical source is not some huge leap...  it is not something that takes decades to tool up for.

there are folks right now that are driving plug in hybrids for "free".. they have zero dollar a month electrical bills on 2,000+++ square foot luxury homes with solar panels and are plugging in their hybrids with readily available kits.

lazs

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by Tigeress
Let me answer that in part with a question if you will allow me...

How did the automobile replace the horse and buggy?
 

Until Mr Ford brought mass production methods to the automobile and brought the price down to what regular folks could afford, horses still ruled personal transportation.

Before the automobile made money sense, it was a rich mans toy.

Why doesn't everyone have a PV roof?  Because it costs several thousand per KW to install and it doesn't pay for itself (without gov't subsidy) for a decade or more.  

It doesn't make financial sence when electricity costs $0.10/KWhr

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Until Mr Ford brought mass production methods to the automobile and brought the price down to what regular folks could afford, horses still ruled personal transportation.

Before the automobile made money sense, it was a rich mans toy.

Why doesn't everyone have a PV roof?  Because it costs several thousand per KW to install and it doesn't pay for itself (without gov't subsidy) for a decade or more.  

It doesn't make financial sence when electricity costs $0.10/KWhr

Quite so, Holden; Spot on.

IMV, Detroit is once again forced to make serious changes... This Time, to regain what they had before oil prices started hurting their business.

The Automobile industry drove the Oil industry initially and is in process of doing so again; this time, to drive Oil/Gasoline out of the equation as much as possible.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

In my view, the invention of the production line and creation of a low cost automobile and a middle class who would buy it had to happen in order to capitalize on the staggering potential of profits the automobile represented.

Granted, in this case the priority to drive the creation of Hydrogen fueled vehicles and its attendant and requisite infrastructure is driven partially by capitalism itself but capitalism (Detroit) is driving it.

It is also driven presently by needs of national security and clean air and a renewable energy source to carry us well into the future in addition to the needs of the automobile industry to stop loosing profits due to oil price fluctuation and future predicted oil price increases.

Detroit is seriously PO'ed and wants to regain their profits.

Ford announced a $1 billion dollar loss yesterday and their stock is in the toilet.

The hand writing is on the wall...

In other words… macro-capitalism is presently holding us back to the extent that it is.
IMV, the Hydra, Russia and China are counting on this.

That is why I think many people are not yet envisioning this future; their business and personal paradigms are based on lowest cost/highest profit at the moment. Lazs is not alone by a huge margin and for understandable reasons.

I am optimistic and have reason to be. The only question is when will it be prioritized high enough to bring out the Henry Fords to do their thing in the near term; far term it is already well well underway.

If the Hydra shut off oil to the US today... right now, the Henry Fords would come to total life... the sleeping giant would come to full life and make this happen ASAP.

I absolutely believe we are witnessing the historic end of the Oil Age.

If Detroit has learned the lessons of IBM vs. Microsoft, Detroit will create and own the fuel infrastructure this time.

TIGERESS