It's Like the Hydra

[lazs2]

holden.. even without the subsidies.. some of which are by the power companies themselves... the systems are starting to make sense...

These luxury homes have power bills that average about $500 a month... this will go up at least double in the next few years.. the payments on the systems are running about $300 a month.

Why would the power companies want to subsidize em?  getting juice to the grid is like pushing an elephant through a straw in peak hours.. the hours these things are taking the stress off their systems.

lazs

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by lazs2
holden.. even without the subsidies.. some of which are by the power companies themselves... the systems are starting to make sense...

These luxury homes have power bills that average about $500 a month... this will go up at least double in the next few years.. the payments on the systems are running about $300 a month.

Why would the power companies want to subsidize em?  getting juice to the grid is like pushing an elephant through a straw in peak hours.. the hours these things are taking the stress off their systems.

lazs

Lazs,

 Can you provide some links?

In looking around, I saw:

"                                   Solar Electricity
There are more than 10,000 homes in the United States that are now entirely powered by solar energy.

200,000 homes in the U.S. use some type of photovoltaic solar technology.

Building-integrated PV products such as solar roof shingles for homes and opaque glass PV facades are now available on the market. These aesthetically pleasing products replace conventional building materials while generating electricity, effectively reducing the cost of PV installation. This building integration market for these products is growing at 30% a year.

Designers have begun incorporating photovoltaics and passive solar into factory-built modular homes. For instance, a factory-built, solar home in Massachusetts was built for $35,000 less than it would have cost to build a conventional custom home and the homeowners pay a total of $100 for heating, cooling and electricity a year.

The cost of installing a typical off-grid PV system in a home ranges from $15,000 to $20,000 per kilowatt (lower when installed during initial house construction). Because the cost to extend electric power lines from the electric grid averages from $20,000 to $80,000 per mile, this cost savings alone can pay for the PV system, with the homeowner never again having to pay another electric bill."

from --> http://www.solardev.com/SEIA-sunshinehomes.php

I leave tomorrow...

TIGERESS

[lazs2]

tigress.... you pretty much have it already...

the systems are like a $15,000 addition to a new home with the subsidies.. that is like a $300 or less a month payment.   this is not only less than what their power bill would have been but.... power will go up in price... and

In a market where homes are not selling... homes with solar electrical are selling very well.     I know two people who have the full house treatment and their bills are $0 for the year average.. they get a credit when producing excess and are charged when not producing enough..  they could easily charge an electric car for free.

I believe that free.. or "all you can eat for cheap" electricity is just around the corner and that it will change our lives more than personal computers or cell phones or even the model T did.



lazs

[Nashwan]

nashwan... I just don't see things as grim as you do... I see the fact that as long as oil is cheaper than anything else... that is a good thing.. whatever is cheapest is a good thing.

I don't see it as grim, I see it as risky.

At the same time... more and more alternatives are being refined (no pun intended) as with solar and wind and nuclear.

as these things make power an "all you can eat for a flat rate" kinda deal for electrical... more and more will have "free" electric cars for most driving...

They started talking about flat rate electricity pricing in the 50s, when fusion power was just around the corner. 50 years later and fusion power is now "25 years" away. It's been about 25 years away since the 80s, iirc.

Solar, nuclear and wind will not produce flat rate electricity pricing. All of them are fairly pricey ways of generating electricity, not because of fuel costs, but because of capital costs.

Hybrids are not really worth it.. but they are selling in record numbers.. a plug in hybrid with a free, or nearly free, electrical source is not some huge leap... it is not something that takes decades to tool up for.

The power infrastructure does.

Let's face it, current (geddit?) electric cars don't sell because they are rubbish. They are too small, built out of tracing paper, the air con or heater flattens the battery before you reach the bottom of your drive.

Petrol contains about 10 kw/h of energy per litre. An electric car is much more efficient, but you still need at least 3 kw/h to equal 1 litre of petrol. 12 kw/h to equal a US gallon.

How many gallons do you use a day? How many kilowatt hours of electricity?

The US gets 40% of its energy from oil. That's almost all used in transport. The other 60% is used in homes and industry. Replacing the oil with electric vehicles will require about twice as much electricity generation as now.

That will take many years.

How did the automobile replace the horse and buggy?

It offered huge advantages.

Hydrogen vehicles do not offer any advantages to the consumer over gasoline vehicles, and have several large disadvantages.

It is also driven presently by needs of national security and clean air and a renewable energy source to carry us well into the future

What renewable energy source?

Hydrogen can be used to produce energy, but only if you can find hydrogen. Because it's very reactive, you can't find substantial amounts unreacted.

What you find is water, which contains hydrogen. You can extract hydrogen from water, but it takes energy. In theory, if you can make the process 100% efficient, extracting hydrogen will require exactly the same amount of energy you get when you burn it.

In reality, neither the extraction or the burning is 100% efficient, which means you will always get out less energy than you put in.

the systems are like a $15,000 addition to a new home with the subsidies.. that is like a $300 or less a month payment. this is not only less than what their power bill would have been

Firstly, subsidies are only suitable when there are small numbers of people using solar. Otherwise, you have to pay the subside through increased taxes, with the government creaming some off the top to administer the scheme.

Secondly, I think you are greatly overestimating the amount of electricity generated.

For about $15,000 you would get a 2 kw system. That will generate about 2 kw at peak, but only about 10 kw/h in a day (in S. California, less elsewhere in the US). My house isn't particularly big, but I use about 20 kw/h a day.

Electricity costs me about 10p (20c) a kw/h. That $15,000 system would generate about $1 - $2 a day in electricity in S. Cal.

As for using it to power cars, remember the 10 or so KW/H in a litre of petrol? 35 or so in a US gallon. As battery powered cars are so much more efficient, you need a lot less than that to run the car, perhaps 10kw/h a gallon equivalent. But that means a $15,000 solar system will generate about the equivalent of a gallon a day.

[lazs2]

nashwan... how many of your lefty predictions for the future have come true?  that in the 60's we would run out of oil in 30 years? that the ice age would kill us all by 2000?   scientists exaggerate all the time... nuclear got a bad rap but it did make for cheap power.

as for the solar..  say what you want but it is happening right now.. not 50 years from now.. now.. there are thousands (and more every day) of homes that have a ZERO DOLLAR electric bill.. the cost to run an electric car for 90% of the driving we need to do would be....  well... zero.

The domestic grid probly costs the power companies about 40% of their generation and maintenance costs..  if it was not on line or feeding instead of sucking up... commercial.. factories and such would get a bigger break..  things would cost less and homes would be powered mostly for free in almost any area of the US.

If we don't collapse into the stone age... this will happen.. there is no stopping it... the free market will provide.

hybrids?   hate the things myself but... there are kits out... installed by the dealers that allow you to plug em in... that would mean you never had to start the cars gas engine for the most part.

lazs

[Tigeress]

Originally posted by Nashwan

The US gets 40% of its energy from oil. That's almost all used in transport. The other 60% is used in homes and industry. Replacing the oil with electric vehicles will require about twice as much electricity generation as now.

That will take many years.

It offered huge advantages.

Hydrogen vehicles do not offer any advantages to the consumer over gasoline vehicles, and have several large disadvantages.

What renewable energy source?

Hydrogen can be used to produce energy, but only if you can find hydrogen. Because it's very reactive, you can't find substantial amounts unreacted.

What you find is water, which contains hydrogen. You can extract hydrogen from water, but it takes energy. In theory, if you can make the process 100% efficient, extracting hydrogen will require exactly the same amount of energy you get when you burn it.

In reality, neither the extraction or the burning is 100% efficient, which means you will always get out less energy than you put in.

How much energy do you say it takes to extract 1 kilo of H2 from H2O?
I would like to see references.

Nuclear is renewable enough to get the job done to extract H2 from H2O

Not sure what you mean by "reactive".

Of course it takes energy to extract H2 from H2O... no one said otherwise.
Advantages of H2 over Gasoline??? dang... you don't have to buy oil from the Hydra for openers, also using H2 fuel cells you can consider it an instant rechargeable battery of sorts... fill the H2 tank in a few minutes then motor away on electric power.

TIGERESS

PS: Made it to Yokohama... had a great dinner date with a Japanese guy from the local office here last evening... went to a Okinawa Restaurant... very different from regular Japanese food! Very good! yum!!!!

Flew non-stop from Newark, NJ to Tokyo over the North Pole and across Russia, north to south and entered Russian airspace just east of Siberia.
Upper artic circle area is already in peptual darkness so couldn't see Santa's house. lol

First time over Russia for me. Felt a little strange knowing they shot down KAL 007. I didn't see any Russian planes so that was good. Had no idea Russia allows US Air Carriers to over fly Russia.

EDIT: Jetlag is killin me. Still at work here and at the moment it's little after 6pm here but east coast time it's little after 4am. running out of steam... yawn!!!

[SD67]

Originally posted by Tigeress
Read this; it clarifies what my opinion is at its root.


 
And the Quran says to kill those who do not convert to Islam; those who obey and kill us get unlimited sex with virgins (women) in heaven forever; men are horny; go figure.

Gonna nuke them all? how many countries would that be?

We are on the ropes... they are winning... everytime we shoot one them the Hydra grows two more just like him.

You don't stop that with B-2 borne nukes... they will just get to go to heaven and screw virgin women for Eternity!

TIGERESS

Any religion that promises nookie in the afterlife is dodgy IMHO

[Nashwan]

nashwan... how many of your lefty predictions for the future have come true?

A: I'm not a lefty.
B: I'm not predicting anything, just pointing out the dangers we face at the moment.

Oil is a very, very large part of the economy. It cannot be replaced quickly.

that in the 60's we would run out of oil in 30 years? that the ice age would kill us all by 2000?

In the 60s environmentalists were predicting that we would soon run out of aluminium, despite it being a substantial proportion of the earth's crust. The oil crisis of the 70s, when supply was deliberately restricted, was taken by environmentalists to mean oil was running out.

Environmentalists are nearly always wrong. I can't remember a single prediction they have made that came true.

scientists exaggerate all the time... nuclear got a bad rap but it did make for cheap power.

I think you need to differentiate between scientists and environmentalists. Al Gore is not a scientist. There is a huge difference between what scientists say, and what environmentalists say scientists are saying.

as for the solar.. say what you want but it is happening right now.. not 50 years from now.. now.. there are thousands (and more every day) of homes that have a ZERO DOLLAR electric bill.. the cost to run an electric car for 90% of the driving we need to do would be.... well... zero.

Again, try to look at the science rather than the claims of environmentalists.

Anybody can have a zero dollar electricity bill, simply by not using electricity. You can have a zero dollar electricity bill by buying $15,000 of solar panels and cutting your electricity consumption by 50%. Or you can have a zero dollar electricity bill by buying $15,000 of solar panels, and having the taxpayer buy you another $15,000 of solar panels.

But the fact remains you need more than $30,000 of solar panels to offset the electricity consumption of a typical house, and that's using dodges like selling electricity back to the grid at peak generation capacity (in the day) and buying it back from the grid at night. That's not viable if used by masses of people, either.

As for running a car, not practical. Maybe if you want to run a G Whiz but not for any sort of practical car.

If we don't collapse into the stone age... this will happen.. there is no stopping it... the free market will provide.

You talk about the free market, and then say solar is worthwhile "with subsidies"?

The truth is solar is only competitive in a free market for small out of the way installations. Power from the grid is about a third the cost of solar, even in a sunny location like socal.

hybrids? hate the things myself but... there are kits out... installed by the dealers that allow you to plug em in... that would mean you never had to start the cars gas engine for the most part.

So electric vehicles are suitable for "other people"? Truth is, hybrids are a waste of space. Even in the UK, where petrol now costs about 8$ a gallon due to taxes, hybrids are an extreme rarity. If you build a smaller, lighter car, you can get similar consumption out of a conventional drive train, at less cost.

How much energy do you say it takes to extract 1 kilo of H2 from H2O?
I would like to see references.

I don't know, I've seen suggestions electrolysis is about 50% efficient. Most hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels directly, rather than hydrolysis of water.

But, just on very basic scientific principles, you will always get less energy out than you put in. (see the second law of thermodynamics)

Nuclear is renewable enough to get the job done to extract H2 from H2O

It is. But you need an awful lot of nuclear power. In fact, you need about 5 times as many nuclear power stations as the US has now. And that's not counting the losses in production of hydrogen.

Advantages of H2 over Gasoline??? dang... you don't have to buy oil from the Hydra for openers, also using H2 fuel cells you can consider it an instant rechargeable battery of sorts... fill the H2 tank in a few minutes then motor away on electric power.

You can fill a tank with gasoline in a few minutes, too. The major differences for the consumer are that hydrogen would be more expensive than gasoline, the hydrogen car would be more expensive.

[Jackal1]

Originally posted by Nashwan
I think you need to differentiate between scientists and environmentalists. Al Gore is not a scientist.
 

I`d place Gore in the opportunist/scam artist bracket.

[Tigeress]

Nashwan? Are you in the oil business?

Point is... The objective is... to stop using crude oil as much as possible. To stop buying oil from the middle east.

The point of the thread is eliminate the threat the middle east (The Hydra) poses to Humanity.

Also... there is a limited quanity of oil left in the world and demand is increasing dramatically. China is competing for oil at a very high rate of demand increase and it is no where near its peak demand yet.

Sure H2 from H2O is an emerging fuel... sure it's expensive... today... that is what is going on... to improve H2 extraction from H2O... to lower the cost.

Additionally when H2 is extracted so is O. Its the combination of the two.

How about we do this? Just extract Oxygen from H2O. Its not a fuel.
Automatically, H2 is provided free! lol

Hydrogen can not be "created"/manufactured.

It is a primary element.

It already exists... in compound... with other elements... as molecules like H2O.

By your arguement we never would have switched to the automobile from the horse and buggy. Cars were too expensive... no distributed infrastructure for fuel.

See what I mean?

Twice as much energy to refine gasoline as it produces?

Does the second law of thermodynamics apply to refinement of gasoline? and if so we wouldn't be using gasoline by your arguement... too expensive.

I never said switch from oil to H2 today!

The technology is not ready yet for that.

I said put full effort into making economically feasable the avaliability and use of H2 as a replacement fuel.

TIGERESS

[Nashwan]

Nashwan? Are you in the oil business?

No. Big consumer of the stuff, though.

Point is... The objective is... to stop using crude oil as much as possible. To stop buying oil from the middle east.

It's certainly a desirable outcome. The point I am making is we use oil now because it's cheap. Even now, at $100 a barrel, it's far cheaper than the alternatives.

Sure H2 from H2O is an emerging fuel... sure it's expensive... today

It's not so much the cost, it's the fact it's not a source of energy.

Oil is a source of energy. In fact, it's the largest single source of energy the US uses.

By your arguement we never would have switched from the horse and buggy. Cars were too expensive... no distributed infrastructure for fuel.

Cars offered huge advantages over horses. You can park a car on the street, leave it for days at a time. You only have to put fuel in when you want to use it. It's faster, with a greater range. It has the potential to be a lot cheaper, even if the early ones weren't.

Twice as much energy to refine gaoline as it produces?

Does the second law of thermodynamics apply to refinement of gasoline?

It's an entirely different thing. Oil burns. Even crude oil, if you get it hot, will burn and release net energy. Remember the burning oil wells in Kuwait?

Water doesn't burn.

Refining gasoline from oil means separating molecules from other molecules. Getting H2 from water means breaking down the molecule itself.

The reaction is H2 + O = energy + water.

Obviously the reverse is Energy + water = H2 + O.

Now, it's basic science that the amount of energy in both cases is the same. However, that's at 100% efficiency. In the real world, it's difficult to come up with a 100% efficient process.

So if electrolysis is 50% efficient, and a fuel cell 50% efficient, then for every 100 units of energy you put in, you will get 50 units of energy contained in the hydrogen you produce, and you will extract 25 units of energy from the hydrogen when you use it in the fuel cell.

I never said switch from oil to H2 today!

The technology is not ready yet for that.

I said put full effort into making feasable the use of H2 as a replacement fuel.

I said the market can't, because the end result will be less convenient and more expensive than gasoline.

With the current price of gasoline, and the state of technology, there is nothing that can compete with gasoline. That will probably be true even with oil at $300 a barrel.

Europe has high fuel taxes. In Britain, petrol (gasoline) costs about $8 a gallon. Diesel is slightly more expensive. Yet even in Britain, people drive either petrol or diesel cars, with hybrids and fully electric vehicles making up far less than 1% of the vehicles on the road.

Even at $8 a gallon, alternative technologies simply cannot compete.

Personally, I doubt hydrogen is the future. There are too many losses in producing and transporting it. I think electric cars will be the future, but even the best, most expensive batteries are nowhere near good enough yet.

[lazs2]

nashwan... pay attention..  first... yes.. I believe you are a lefty from reading everything you write.

next.. I do know the difference between environmentalist (without papers) and scientist... when  gore doesn't tho but... environmentalists who use scientists are simply parroting.   the ice age thing had 250 of the "top" climate scientists all meeting and agreeing.. the end of oil by 2000 was scientists.

people here would have us believe that at least half the scientists believe in MMGW... death by co2.

as for cost... you didn't do the math.   if the payment for a solar system costs $300 a month and your power bill would normally be $500 a month.. you are saving $200 a month..  the house value.. resale goes up the $30,000 of the panels and the house sells easier.. it is a fact here.... house with em are selling.    

my guess is that the cost of installing solar panels will go down every year..  5 years will see real $15,000 systems with subsidies by the power companies and low interest loans getting the real cost to maybe $75 a month.   eventually..  it will be standard.

Now... take the hybrid.. convert it to plug in and you will make all your short trips free.   The electricity was free.   Most workplaces here allow you to plug in too.

I can build a hot rod out of any power source you give me.  that is what hot rodding is all about.

I will still have the big block solid lfter monsters around tho... nothing like the sound of a big block or small block in full song with the tires clawing for traction and the passenger glued to the seat.

We own 1/4 of the worlds coal.. it can be turned into energy..  we have offshore reserves of oil and oil in alaska and... reserves that are hard to get..  at $90 a barrel.. options are gonna open up.

[Nashwan]

next.. I do know the difference between environmentalist (without papers) and scientist... when gore doesn't tho but... environmentalists who use scientists are simply parroting.

No, most of it they make up, or at least exaggerate. Read for example this criticism of Gore's film: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/11/do1102.xml

Note how what Gore is saying is not what the scientists are saying.

the ice age thing had 250 of the "top" climate scientists all meeting and agreeing

And your source for this is? That's right, the main stream media from 1975.

The truth is very different. The US national academy of sciences/national research council did put out a report on climate change in 1975, it concluded that  the climate would eventually cool, as it had in the past, but that cooling might not begin for thousands of years. Above all, they said they did not know enough about the climate to make any predictions.

the end of oil by 2000 was scientists.

Was it? It seems to me scientists reported oil discoveries, the media took those records of how much oil had been found and speculated that no more would be.

as for cost... you didn't do the math. if the payment for a solar system costs $300 a month and your power bill would normally be $500 a month.. you are saving $200 a month.. the house value.. resale goes up the $30,000 of the panels and the house sells easier.. it is a fact here.... house with em are selling.

According to DOE, average cost for a unit of electricity in California in 2007 is 14.4c.

$500 gives you 3470 units of electricity.

A $30,000 solar system gives you about 300 units a month.

What's the payment on an unsubsidised $30,000 loan?  

What's the monthly payment on the $300,000 solar system you need to provide as much electricity as you can buy with $500 a month?

my guess is that the cost of installing solar panels will go down every year.. 5 years will see real $15,000 systems with subsidies by the power companies and low interest loans getting the real cost to maybe $75 a month. eventually.. it will be standard.

Now... take the hybrid.. convert it to plug in and you will make all your short trips free. The electricity was free. Most workplaces here allow you to plug in too.

You talk about the market then you talk about "free" electricity, and subsidies, paid for by someone else.

"Free" has to be paid for by someone. Yes a few people can get subsidies now, because they are few. If 10 million Californians wanted to install solar panels, do you think they would all get the $15,000 subsidy? Who would pay the $150 billion cost? You would, with your taxes.

You would pay $15,000 for your $30,000 system, and the government would pay the other $15,000. And you would pay the government $20,000 in taxes for them to give you the $15,000 subsidy (with the other $5,000 going for the government to administer the scheme)

Oh, and add a few thousand dollars for you to cover the costs of the crooks who would commit fraud to get extra subsidies.

And you say I am a lefty? I've never considered government subsidies "free".

A $30,000 solar system generates about 10 kw/h a day. A kw/h cost about 14 c if you buy it from the grid. $30,000 dollars generates about $510 a year in electricity.

Invest $30,000 and you get a return that will pay your electricity bill, and increase your investment above the rate of inflation. In 30 years, when you need to replace the solar system, the $30,000 investment will still be paying your power bills.

Solar electricity still costs about 3 times as much as buying power from the grid. You may be able to get someone else to pay for you, but it still costs someone 3 times as much.

my guess is that the cost of installing solar panels will go down every year.. 5 years will see real $15,000 systems with subsidies by the power companies and low interest loans getting the real cost to maybe $75 a month. eventually.. it will be standard.

So it will be free because someone else will pay for it? Who? Why?

Your government might mandate it, but that still doesn't make it free. It just means it gets hidden in the price of a new house.

Now... take the hybrid.. convert it to plug in and you will make all your short trips free. The electricity was free.

Lazs, go and look at the G Whiz I posted a link to.

It's a silly little car, 51 inches wide, weighs less than 900 lbs without batteries, has a 2.2 kw motor (about 3 bhp) providing a claimed top speed of 45 mph.

It takes 10 kw/h to charge it fully, which provides a claimed range, in ideal conditions (no heater or air con, flat roads) of 45 miles.

That's the output of a $30,000 solar system to power a car that's little better than a toy about 40 miles, at best.

[Jackal1]

Originally posted by Tigeress


The point of the thread is eliminate the threat the middle east (The Hydra) poses to Humanity.

 

Steeeeeeeeeeeeeeerike one!

[lazs2]

nashwan...  I will have to dispute your math as I know people who have less than 30,000 dollar systems and their bill is zero.  

They are paying less than $300 a month for the payment on the loan.. it is really more like $200 a month because the power company gave them a rebate... as did the state... I am not in favor of state rebates but... they power company did it to save themselves money...

the systems produce more electricity during the day than they can use.. that makes the meter run backwards... the power company uses that power and gives them a credit.  they will not pay tho... they never go past zero.

And...  the unit is not a loss... it increases the value of the home.. you will get every penny back when you sell and.. in todays market.. they are the only homes selling.

electric cars?  expensive.. stupid but... there are some neat ones... neat enough to drive 5 miles to the supermarket or walmart in any case...  hybrids?  hate em but... you can make em plug in and then it would be "free" after initial cost and not including maint which would occur with any vehicle

Nope..  at least here in the states... it is gonna happen.. soon there will be systems that drop your bill to zero that cost like $10,000   the will be selling kits at home depot.    low interest loans or part of equity line of credit with power company rebates... probly $25-$50 a month extra.. and you get it all back when you sell the home.

you win.. the power company wins... everyone wins.  

oh..here is the electric car drag racing association.. looks like fun to me.

http://www.nedra.com/

lazs