Author Topic: General Climate Discussion  (Read 103453 times)

Offline MORAY37

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1245 on: January 19, 2008, 11:30:20 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
and... I did miss the post about the suns activity slowing being bs.. if that is true then temps will continue to get higher till it slows..  it is for sure due to slow if you follow the cycles.. show me again where you seen that.

This seems odd tho since earlier the suns activity was said to not be a factor and to "prove" it.. the alarmists here said... and linked... that the suns activity had slowed for 17 years now..   I had said at the time that suns activity was complex and involved solar winds and such but....

There you have it.. you can't have it both ways.. if it is the sun then we are right back to.... ITS THE SUN STUPID.

If not.. then.. time will tell..

If you have ever proved anything that I have said was wrong..  then I have to say I am sorry but I missed it..  All I recall is you declaring how much more educated you are so therefore.. you are right and then pretty much calling yourself triumphant based on (as yet unnamed) experience in the global climate field.

I know I have not been impressed with your simple bluster technique.

lazs


That's exactly why I've been calling out your BS.... solar activity through this "warming" has been at a minimum... The sun is JUST NOW entering  it's 11 year period of high activity.

NASA Satellites Capture Start Of New Solar Cycle

The first official active region of solar cycle 24 as it appeared to the STEREO behind spacecraft observing in ultraviolet light on January 4, 2008. (STEREO)
by Staff Writers
Huntsville AL (SPX) Jan 14, 2008
NASA scientists say a new solar cycle is beginning, and this could have important repercussions for space-based technology ranging from GPS navigation to weather satellites. On Jan. 4, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared, signaling the start of Solar Cycle 24. A sunspot is an area of magnetic activity on the surface of the sun that appears as a dark spot on its surface.
Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles and the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms.

Lately, the sun has been experiencing very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind -- a period of quiet called solar minimum. Now, the sun's seasons are changing again. David Hathaway, solar physicist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., says, "New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot."

"Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared Jan. 4 fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has named the spot AR10,981, or "sunspot 981" for short. Sunspot 981 was small --only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun -- and it has already faded away. But its three-day appearance Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.

The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.

"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause actual power outages.

Air travel can be affected, too. When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by space radiation. Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs extra time, money and fuel to take the longer route.

NASA is gearing up to study the active sun during Cycle 24 with the launch of a new spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory. "SDO is a very special observatory," says project scientist Dean Pesnell at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "Using a technique called helioseismic imaging, the spacecraft will be able to look inside the sun where solar activity begins. SDO will join SOHO, STEREO, Hinode and other missions already in orbit to improve our understanding of solar storms and lay the groundwork for better space weather forecasts."

"The beginning of the new solar cycle occurs just as the STEREO Mission is completing its first year of operation," said Mike Kaiser, STEREO Project Scientist at NASA Goddard. "The twin STEREO spacecraft are now 45 degrees apart and are in good position to triangulate on solar activity from the new cycle to provide better understanding of solar storms that can disrupt our electronic lives. Ultimately, the research done by STEREO and other solar missions will lead to more accurate predictions of when solar storms will impact Earth."

"Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."
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Offline lazs2

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1246 on: January 19, 2008, 12:01:43 PM »
Ok.. so this is wrong?

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

This shows very low activity.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

This shows reduced activity at present. (from nasa)

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

This article give a good explanation of how the sun is the major player..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/1026375.stm

"Little effect

The other side of this coin is that reducing greenhouse emissions will have much less effect in halting rising temperatures than some people think, and it might have hardly any effect at all.

Cooling towers AP
Our continued use of fossil fuels could make little difference to the climate
The energy emitted from the Sun drives the climate system, and natural changes in its behaviour can have a far greater effect than human behaviour.

Thus, some people may ask: "So why bother worrying about greenhouse gases, and adding billions to the costs of industry to force them to cut emissions, when it could well be a pointless exercise?"

If the Sun is indeed the main contributor to the recent climate change, the money may be better spent providing clean air in big cities and clean drinking water to the Third World. "

lazs

Offline MORAY37

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1247 on: January 19, 2008, 02:34:39 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
Ok.. so this is wrong?

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

This shows very low activity.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

This shows reduced activity at present. (from nasa)

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

This article give a good explanation of how the sun is the major player..

[url]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/1026375.st

"Little effect



lazs


LAZS..exactly... we're coming out of a SOLAR MINIMUM and now moving toward a MAXIMUM .

Why is is so hard to get through to you?

You consistently post that the sun is doing exactly the opposite...and that is why the earth is warming...  

Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
hortlund.. of course it is getting warmer.. no one knows how much and no one knows why and no one knows when it will get colder.. the suns activity has slowed tho so it will get colder soon.


It is incredible how much you contradict yourself.  Now you post correct data and go against YOUR OWN posts... and act like you are correct in both.
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Offline bustr

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1248 on: January 19, 2008, 06:53:58 PM »
Guys both sides of this thread have referenced and positioned on so much data that the argument is morphing itself into how much each of you think the other is a mongloid ideiot.


1. When was the last time in our known history that the planet cooled with global consiquenses to humans? How many times has the planet cooled?

2. When was the last time in planetairy history that the planet heated up and globaly affected the flora and fuana? How many times has the planet heated up?

3. No matter what the human race does, will planet earth continue to cycle cold and then hot? Yes or No?
bustr - POTW 1st Wing


This is like the old joke that voters are harsher to their beer brewer if he has an outage, than their politicians after raising their taxes. Death and taxes are certain but, fun and sex is only now.

Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1249 on: January 20, 2008, 03:22:35 AM »
Earth has cooled and warmed. No news. Violent swings in climate have occured. However, no proper intelligent life got a foothold during these periods, - civilization is younger, and never in the time of civilization, has much properly extreme happened, - regarding the climate that is.
You hade "humans" before the last ice-age. But on the stone age level.
Anyway, here is something about warming. Seems that the "belts" of the earth are actually changing, as well as Antarctica actually joining in.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo102.html

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/abs/ngeo.2007.38.html
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline bustr

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1250 on: January 20, 2008, 04:50:08 AM »
Angus,

Answer question 3, yes or no please. "Here is something about warming" will not get you out of answering it. That isnt even a very good debat team tactic. Will the planet cycle on regardless of us? Simple question, doesnt need any monolouges or embelishment, or googling to answer.

3. No matter what the human race does, will planet earth continue to cycle cold and then hot? Yes or No?

Angus if you or someone from yours and morays side won't answer question 3 with a yes or no, then this whole thread is moot and crashes right here. Laz you wanna answer also?
bustr - POTW 1st Wing


This is like the old joke that voters are harsher to their beer brewer if he has an outage, than their politicians after raising their taxes. Death and taxes are certain but, fun and sex is only now.

Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1251 on: January 20, 2008, 07:42:43 AM »
Oh, it will cycle. So the answer is yes.
But the big thing is HOW MUCH!
If you have enough swings in climate, civilization is dead. Civilization only thrived in a very good period. As it is now, mankind could not take 1 year of proper disaster without incredible losses.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1252 on: January 20, 2008, 08:38:58 AM »
This Just In................again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The climate has changed on earth since the first recording.
It will continue to change.












That is all.
Democracy is two wolves deciding on what to eat. Freedom is a well armed sheep protesting the vote.
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Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1253 on: January 20, 2008, 09:11:49 AM »
well....
And, as well, in human civilization history, it may not have changed that swiftly at all.
No civilization thrived under swift climate changes. Sorry, but it just takes a wee to completely raze the USA down to practically nothing.
As an example...
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1254 on: January 20, 2008, 10:37:53 AM »
moray... it is not I that is contradicting myself.. I have only quoted "scientists".

I notice you are not jumping all over hortlund and company because they used that british article to show that "the great global warming swindle" was wrong because it said solar activity was up..  the article said it couldn't be the sun because the suns activity had gone down sooo...

I guess it really is the sun stupid.    I guess the debunkers of the documentary "the great global warming swindle" were wrong.  

The cycles you talk about are 11 year there are other cycles and.. solar wind in not measured or taken into account in the links you show.. only sun spot activity.   I would have thought you would have seen that.

In any case.. none of this shows that man made c02 is causing anything but better crops.

lazs

Offline lazs2

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1255 on: January 20, 2008, 11:21:38 AM »
angus..  don't get upset.. more and more scientists are telling the truth about the whole scam.. the alarmists can only make things worse for mankind with totalitarian socialism and greed..

"Physicist John W. Brosnahan, who develops remote-sensing tools for clients like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says: "Of course I believe in global warming, and in global cooling -- all part of the natural climate changes that the Earth has experienced for billions of years, caused primarily by cyclical variations in solar output."

Brosnahan says he has "not seen any sort of definitive, scientific link to man-made carbon dioxide as the root cause of global warming, only incomplete computer models that suggest that this might be the case." Those models, he says, leave out too many variables.

Indeed, a study in the Royal Meteorological Society's International Journal of Climatology looked at 22 computer models used by the IPCC. Most of the models couldn't even predict the past.

Predictably, after a quick review of the report, Gore spokeswoman Kalee Kreider said 25 to 30 of the scientists may have received funding from Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) , though she didn't name which scientists she thinks were bribed to distort the truth. Wise move.

This is not like Al Gore getting 75 hours of free airtime on NBC, a unit of General Electric (NYSE:GE) , which stands to make wads of cash on things like solar panels and wind turbines. Or Gore being involved with a company that sells carbon offsets.

Heartland Institute senior fellow James Taylor has noted that more than 600 scientists at the Bali gathering could have debunked Gore's warming theories, but the U.N. "censored" them.

By the way, Gore and his statist friends in Europe repeatedly have criticized the U.S. for its "failure to act" on warming. But new data show the U.S. in 2006 slashed output of greenhouse gases by 1.3%, while Europe's output continued to grow. So who's failing to act?"

lazs

Offline MORAY37

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1256 on: January 20, 2008, 11:41:12 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by bustr
Guys both sides of this thread have referenced and positioned on so much data that the argument is morphing itself into how much each of you think the other is a mongloid ideiot.


1. When was the last time in our known history that the planet cooled with global consiquenses to humans? How many times has the planet cooled?

2. When was the last time in planetairy history that the planet heated up and globaly affected the flora and fuana? How many times has the planet heated up?

3. No matter what the human race does, will planet earth continue to cycle cold and then hot? Yes or No?


#1.  The last cooling was due to the elongation and orbital mechanics of the earth.  It caused the previous ice age.... also known as the population bottleneck through which this species barely passed.  Genetically, it homogonized our genes so radically that it can be determined that under 10,000 individuals, of the approximately 3 to 5 million preceding the event, survived the ice age.

#2.  It's planetary... lose the i.  Following the last ice age the globe warmed up and reached a form of equilibrium.(due to our orbit "tightening")  But look at the Jurassic and Cretaceous and find out what large doses of CO2 and more importantly NH4, in concentration, can do to the climate.  

#3.  Absolutely correct.  No matter what we do, the earth will do it's own dance.  I see where you are taking this... and you seem to not realize two critical factors... a.humans do not tolerate any shifts in climate well   b. natural climate shifts take thousands of years, on average to occur.   What is occuring presently is not natural .  The sun has been at solar minimum (for about 11 years)... our orbit isn't closing.. it's actually expanding slightly. (We're about midway through the orbital mechanics that started the last ice age.)
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Offline lazs2

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1257 on: January 20, 2008, 11:42:27 AM »
so any climate that breaks records is not natural?  

lazs

Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1258 on: January 20, 2008, 12:10:18 PM »
Lazs. - even in my short lifespan I can see that it is warming, and fast. Looking deeper into it reveils it even better.
So, I take the uncomfortable stance of facing the facts and pondering on why, rather than denying just about everything.
If you are in free fall, you can debate it with yourself, but you will keep falling. Looking down is uncomfortable. Time to open chute?
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline MORAY37

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #1259 on: January 20, 2008, 12:21:50 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
so any climate that breaks records is not natural?  

lazs


Climates don't break records.

Individual events do.. and when there is a pile of records being broken, you can figure that your "climate" is changing. (Climate henceforth represented as the "mean" of individual statistics.)

Again...pointing out your fundamental misunderstanding of the topic.
"Ocean: A body of water occupying 2/3 of a world made for man...who has no gills."
-Ambrose Bierce