Author Topic: General Climate Discussion  (Read 93656 times)

Offline lazs2

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #390 on: November 08, 2007, 08:59:37 AM »
angus..  if you read wiki.. you will see that even they say mans effect on water vapor is insignificant.   Are you simply trying to prove my point?

akh... Ok.. how bout this?

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

http://petestx.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!C8DAB55CD5793C69!378.entry

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/bloom/2007/1017.html

and since angus likes wiki so much....


"The effects of clouds are highly significant in climate and a significant area of uncertainty in climate models. Clouds have competing effects on the climate; one notes that the local ground temperature drops when a cloud passes overhead on an otherwise hot or sunny day. Hence, one of the roles that clouds play in climate is in cooling the surface by reflecting sunlight back into space. Yet, seemingly opposite phenomena have occurred, such as when clear winter nights become colder, rather than warmer, in contrast to cloudy winter nights. The general concept therefore, is that clouds block the radiation of heat away from the surface (and eventually into space), and radiate it back to the surface of the Earth, moderating otherwise more extreme temperatures. [19] If CO2 changes the amount or distribution of clouds, it could have various complex effects on the climate. In the 2001 IPCC report on climate change, the possible changes in cloud cover were highlighted as one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change; see also [20]."


got any more?

lazs

Offline Airscrew

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #391 on: November 08, 2007, 09:24:51 AM »
good stuff Wrag and Laz... now just waiting for Arlo or Hortland to come tell us these guys are in the pocket of big oil....
« Last Edit: November 08, 2007, 09:27:38 AM by Airscrew »

Offline Tac

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #392 on: November 08, 2007, 09:44:14 AM »
Scientists: Global Warming is Real!
Lobbyists: Its not Real!
Government: *shrug*
People: WTF how can it be this hot in winter time?

Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #393 on: November 08, 2007, 10:03:22 AM »
Lazs, understand this:
(Although I am getting tired of you and John not understandic basic physics)

1. It was you that pointed out that water vapour's input on GW made CO2 laughable.
2. Water vapour, in the daytime contributes to GW.
And to what EVERY farmer knows.....
3. Clouds in the daylight reflect back the heat from the sun.
4. Warmer climate allows for more vapour WITHOUT forming clouds.
5. Clouds at night preserve temperature below them.

And some point of interest....

- Half the earth is having a night.
- some 70% of earth is covered with water.

Now no Wiki here, just the same brain working, that was trying to explain that a Carbon fire needing only a tiny amount of oxygen cannot be any bigger than that...tiny amount.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #394 on: November 08, 2007, 10:06:05 AM »
and 5b.... In the cool temperate areas, clouds are more likely at nights (condensation because of the sun going away,,,,or low)
5c Earth is normally less than half overcast.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Sabre

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #395 on: November 08, 2007, 10:29:30 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Tac
Scientists: Global Warming is Real!
Lobbyists: Its not Real!
Government: *shrug*
People: WTF how can it be this hot in winter time?


Tac, read the second link Lazs posted above, particularly in regards to what some of the former MMGW believers-turned-skeptic say.  I would modify what you say above to read:

Some Scientists: Global Warming is Real!
Other Scientists: Global Warming is a sham!
Lobyists (Enviro-type): It is real!
Lobyists (non-enviro): Not according to the latest evidence!
People: Can I still drive my SUV, or is that immoral?

I particularly like this one, by an Austrailian scientist.  It gives the lie to those who say that only the skeptics stand to gain financially by supporting a particular position.  I especially like the quote of Lord Keynes:

Quote
Mathematician & engineer Dr. David Evans, who did carbon accounting for the Australian Government, recently detailed his conversion to a skeptic. “I devoted six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian government to estimate carbon emissions from land use change and forestry. When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since then new evidence has weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause. I am now skeptical,” Evans wrote in an April 30, 2007 blog. “But after 2000 the evidence for carbon emissions gradually got weaker -- better temperature data for the last century, more detailed ice core data, then laboratory evidence that cosmic rays precipitate low clouds,” Evans wrote.  “As Lord Keynes famously said, ‘When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?’” he added. Evans noted how he benefited from climate fears as a scientist. “And the political realm in turn fed money back into the scientific community. By the late 1990's, lots of jobs depended on the idea that carbon emissions caused global warming. Many of them were bureaucratic, but there were a lot of science jobs created too. I was on that gravy train, making a high wage in a science job that would not have existed if we didn't believe carbon emissions caused global warming. And so were lots of people around me; and there were international conferences full of such people. And we had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet!  But starting in about 2000, the last three of the four pieces of evidence outlined above fell away or reversed,” Evans wrote. “The pre-2000 ice core data was the central evidence for believing that atmospheric carbon caused temperature increases. The new ice core data shows that past warmings were *not* initially caused by rises in atmospheric carbon, and says nothing about the strength of any amplification. This piece of evidence casts reasonable doubt that atmospheric carbon had any role in past warmings, while still allowing the possibility that it had a supporting role,” he added. “Unfortunately politics and science have become even more entangled. The science of global warming has become a partisan political issue, so positions become more entrenched. Politicians and the public prefer simple and less-nuanced messages. At the moment the political climate strongly supports carbon emissions as the cause of global warming, to the point of sometimes rubbishing or silencing critics,” he concluded. (Evans bio link )
Sabre
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Offline Angus

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #396 on: November 08, 2007, 10:29:40 AM »
You forgot, "Naa, in my place not" and WTF cares about polar Bears.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Sabre

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #397 on: November 08, 2007, 10:52:40 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Oh, Sabre:
Warmer climate and raised ocean temperature unleashes CO2 from the biggest buffer, - the sea. If the cause is anything else for starters. Then the effects are countering each other, - increased CO2 raises temps, which also releases more CO2 etc etc.
What's different in our case in the last years is that NOW the CO2 is LEADING. Okay, we know we've added to it, and roughly how much. So hence the conclucion, not just GW, but MMGW. But it's a unique position.
(I still remain sceptic about the totalness of MM, but less with every round)

Oh, BTW, if you were god, and could tune up various gas bars on the planet at will to see what happened, increased co2 would definately cause a GW. Same with you and the kettle, put water in and turn it on, - if it works it's gonna boil in there.

As for the world poverty and welfare, you ain't seen nothing yet if the temperature bar is keeping onwards where it's heading.
As for counter measures for CO2 emissions, I fail to see a downside. It's an opening to new businesses of industry as well as a different approach to useage of land and resources. The first one I'd suspect to get a bloody nose out of those would be a greedy western consumer who wants lots of products for a truly unrealistic price.


I'm sorry but your model is too simplistic, and ignores some things.  From the Junk Science website:

Quote
Theoretically, in a dry atmosphere, carbon dioxide could absorb about three times more energy than it actually does. Clouds, in the absence of all other greenhouse gases, could do likewise -- look at it as there already being "competition" for available suitable longwave radiation (energy these gases can absorb), if you like.


So, the more moisture in the air, the less effect CO2 can have, which dampens out the "reinforceing" effect your proposing.

Quote
Readers should be aware that the temperature effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide is logarithmic (that means there is a diminishing response as you keep adding more, like the additional window shade example, above).

If we consider the warming effect of the pre-Industrial Revolution atmospheric carbon dioxide (about 280 parts per million by volume or ppmv) as 1, then the first half of that heating was delivered by about 20ppmv (0.002% of atmosphere) while the second half required an additional 260ppmv (0.026%).

To double the pre-Industrial Revolution warming from CO2 alone would require about 90,000ppmv (9%) but we'd never see it - CO2 becomes toxic at around 6,000ppmv (0.6%, although humans have absolutely no prospect of achieving such concentrations).


So no, if I were God and wanted to experiment as you say, CO2 would be a very uninteresting parameter to play with, as it's effect on temps is minimal.

Again, the ice records show that temps drive CO2, not the other way around.  As for countermeasures to CO2, the do not create wealth, they re-distribute it.  That's what the cap-and-trade measures and carbon taxes will do, and they will do it on the backs of consumers.  They will affect the poor and the undeveloped nations most, as they have the least ability to absorb the redistribution of wealth.

Look, I'm all for alternate energy and a clean enviroment, but for the right reasons and done in a smart, pro-economic growth way.  CO2 is not polution, it's plant food.
Sabre
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Offline AKH

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #398 on: November 08, 2007, 10:56:47 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
akh... Ok.. how bout this?

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

http://petestx.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!C8DAB55CD5793C69!378.entry

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/bloom/2007/1017.html

Nothing there to support your statement.  In fact, two of the three directly contradict your claim.  Maybe if you weren't quite so alarmist in your approach, but restricted yourself to making accurate statements, you'd appear less of a charlatan?
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Offline john9001

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #399 on: November 08, 2007, 12:40:03 PM »
is the polar ice cap normal? Perhaps the cavemen thought the ice age was normal.

storch

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #400 on: November 08, 2007, 12:51:14 PM »
it is a scam.  there are many scientists who claim that once enough cold water from glacial melting enters the ocean it slows down the ocean conveyor.  this in turn triggers colder temperatures globally thereby initiating global cooling.  they claim that this is a naturally occuring cycle.  the planet goes through periods of rising or decreasing temperature and it is little affected by what humans do.

these scientists who offer this hypothesys are systematically censured by the ones who want funding dollars.

the left and our enemies want us to tank our economy so if you do not toe the politcally motivated line you get no money.

Offline Hortlund

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #401 on: November 08, 2007, 01:18:39 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2

half of em think it is a scam now.


The figure is 6% lasz. as I have repeatedly pointed out to you. 6% is not "half"..but I know this is hard for you to understand.

Offline Airscrew

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #402 on: November 08, 2007, 01:29:14 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hortlund
The figure is 6% lasz. as I have repeatedly pointed out to you. 6% is not "half"..but I know this is hard for you to understand.

6%, 2%, 50%,  doesnt really matter to me... if even one of them disagrees then I think its got problems...

Offline straffo

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #403 on: November 08, 2007, 02:14:00 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hortlund
The figure is 6% lasz. as I have repeatedly pointed out to you. 6% is not "half"..but I know this is hard for you to understand.


6 is more than the number of the finger he got on his right hand (the hand he use to count)  

How can you think he can understand the value of "six" (or more btw) ?

Offline lazs2

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Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #404 on: November 08, 2007, 02:15:38 PM »
hortlund...  nooo.. you are confused again.  the 6% is for scientists... and.. it is 7% believe that man made global warming is real and a catastrophe... 30 some % think that man might have some effect..  48% say that they have no idea and that the evidence is not good enough either way and 6% say it is total bunk.

What we are talking about is weathermen.

lazs