Good post sabre, I understood it completely...
I enjoy "what if's", because they usually promote very interesting convo...
Kondo's bombardment force, Heavy Cruisers Mogami, Mikuma, Suzuya, Kumano, 5 DD's, were ordered early on the 4th to close and bombard Midway.. After the loss of the 4 carriers, they were ordered to retire NW and link up with main body. Early on the 5th, lookouts spotted the US sub Tambor running on the surface, ordered an evasive turn, thats when Mogami collided with Mikuma.. Mikuma took light damage midships, but Mogami lost her bow. This reduced her speed to 12 knots.. Kondo detached the damaged Mogami, Mikuma, and 2 DD's, then proceded at full speed for the rendezvous with the rest of his force.. The stragglers were detected by air, and attacked by the remaining SBDs from Hornet, and Marine SB2U's, all launched from Midway.. Mikuma was sunk, Mogami escaped...
The leftovers of Nagumo's carrier strike force, fast BB's Kirishima, Haruna, Heavy Cruisers Tone, Chikuma, and 11 DD's, were also ordered to retire NW and link up with the main body... Took light attacks early on the 5th by the leftover aircraft from the US Navy Carriers, and B17's from Midway.. Resulting in light damage from a near miss to Haruna...
The US forces were taking stock, and reorganizing late on the 4th... The Hornets SBD's had missed the "5 minutes of glory" on the 4th.. They never found the Jp Fleet at all, but had lost a third of their number from running out of gas while searching, before landing at Midway.. On the morning of the 5th, reports were recieved from Tambor, and air search, that gave position of Kondo's stragglers.. The planes on Midway, took off to get their licks in.. They did, sank the Mikuma, damaged the Mogami further, but she escaped..
I submit for thought, that if these 2 IJN surface forces had proceeded to Midway, (they were within easy range), on the night of the 4th, and shelled the runway, aircraft revetments etc, before dawn... The Hornets AC, (and all the others sitting at Midway), would have been wiped out, or been left unable to participate in further actions on the 5th.. This would have left the mixed, and severely depleted, Airgroups from Enterprise and Hornet, (including survivors from Yorktown) as the only airpower available.. Also by this time, Yamamoto's main force would have had time to close the range into the battle area.. Bringing his fresh airgroups into action.. Changes the picture entirely!!!
I believe that Spruance would have been forced to retire, to preserve the only naval forces between Midway and the West Coast of the USA.. This would have resulted in the loss of Midway, and the Japanese bringing Pearl Harbor under daily air attack by land based bombers, making the port untenable.. MAJOR bad news!!
Remember, I do this stuff from memory mostly.. Don't have the books in front of me, so bear with me..
Great posts all
RC