You say that as though it is something new. It isn't new. It is the reason HTC has given the whole time. I was being more specific in example that HTC ever is though.
HTC has said that new player retention basically ceases once arena population reaches a certain point. They have said that arena populations of 500, 600 or even 800 are toxic. Why would you think those things are?
I will admit that I could be wrong, but I can't imagine anything else that would be stopping growth. New players log in and see a bunch of love muffines screaming at each other about politics or collisions or what needs to be done to win the war or having killed the only good fight and the chat buff moving too fast to get help, or even effectively put help given to use and it turns them off the game, makes it more frustrating that it already is. Lets face it, brand new players have an uphill struggle as it is with them basically being cannon fodder, confronting them with a hostile environment, not just gamewise, but socially as well can't do anything good for encouraging people to subscribe.
I believe I have heard this reason before.
I'll again make the suggestion to have a 'New Player' arena. Where new players can learn how to fly the play and use there view system and get the feel for the things the have to master against other new players. The training arena and offline practice arena do not provide what new players want. Excitement. In a Single MA, noobs will go where the action is, they will be overwhelmed and quit.
In a new player arena they will learn against other players who are learning as well. This is key because they will be able to have early success, which in turn will keep them interested and motivated to stay with the game and get better. They can still use the training arena, etc to learn from the experts and develop their skill. Also, Trainers and others who sign up could have access to provide, experience players to the mix in a constructive way. Once the new players reach a certain rank or number of hours in the New Player arena, that unlocks the MA. Since I'm all for liberty and freedom, and don't believe anyone should be kept from the MA, they can unlock it by reading and checking a waver page that explains the MA's tough environment and that it should be attempted by only when a certain skill level is reached (in the New Player) , but let the guy in if he so chooses. Once there, if he's getting pounded, and learned the error of his ways, he might go back and earn his wings in the "New Player" Arena.
the MMO's and many online games make use of 'Levelling up' as a very effective marketing tool. I think new players would strongly relate to the concept. Also, the success new players would have would get them hooked, and the idea that there was bigger more deadly arena waiting for them would feed their interest. Most popular titles are like that. First board is get your feet wet, learn some of the tools and learn/improve as you go by being exposed to an evermore complex and difficult game.
The MA is harsh. All the weapons, all the tactics, all the skill level of players with years under their belts, the trashtalking, squads, missions, etc. It's overwhelming, and new players get it all at once which is why retention of new players is low.
HTC's solution seems to be to dilute the actions so new players have a chance, but the side effects are obvious. And is it really working? How is new player retention?
I submit a strategy change may be in order. There are 4 arenas with extremely low usage (one of the WWI, EW, MW, AvA). Perhaps one could be converted to 'New Player" arena. If it's true HTC discouraes large arena's becaue it drives noobs out of the game. This might be a better alternative.