Author Topic: 2012 End of The World?  (Read 5795 times)

Offline Sundowner

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #105 on: May 05, 2011, 08:12:59 PM »

ever hear of Krakatoa? largest eruption, loudest sound in recored human history.    late 1800's.    the world didn't end because of it, nor will it end.

I never represented that the world will "end".

(Personally I believe the world has at least 1000 years remaining. I won't say why in this venue because I don't want to be the one that triggers this thread being locked.)

Let me clarify my position: We are seeing more frequent and/or intense "natural" events occurring right before our eyes. (I'm not including the sociological /cultural accelerating changes because there are those that will claim the "self-fulfilling prophesies" card. Regardless, this vector of phenomena is still manifest. Do your own research...I'll leave it at that.)



quote: ".... there is NO WAY we could ever form any sort of accurate long term weather or world predictor.   like its been stated, we have only been recording weather and earthquakes for what, 150 years?   we'll say 200 to be fair.   what about the 4.5 billion and change before that?!  never had giant hurricanes before that?  tornadoes didnt rage across the plains?  you REALLY think the world never saw a 9.5 earthquake?  honestly, you think giant tsunamis never raced acrossed the worlds oceans before??"....


Again, we see the "since there is data/events we don't know about it must mean that current data is invalid" argument.

This is invalid logic: Lack of evidence is NOT evidence.!




quote:  "...this is all NATURAL, all happened because SCIENCE dictates that is MUST happen, not because some antiquated culture that went extinct a 1000 years ago says it will....."

To set the record straight...I don't subscribe to antiquated culture's prophecies, my position as represented here is based on "increase of frequencies and/or intensities" of "natural" events.

As a side note: I don't think I've actually run across someone that claims that things "happen because SCIENCE dictates that it MUST happen".




quote: "if you want to do research, look up mega-thrust earthquakes.  you'll understand why we have massive quakes.  has nothing to do with the mayans, i assure you ;


No need for me to look up "mega-thrust earthquakes". I have a fair understanding of plate-techtonic dynamics.
My position relates to "increases of frequency and/or intensities" of natural detrimental events such as earthquakes and how these indicates a discernible pattern not why massive quakes occur.

I assure you that I agree none of this has anything to do with the mayans.

Meanwhile, here are a few more data point events to enter into your pattern matrix for those keeping track:  ;)


Magnitude 7.1 earthquake rattles coast of Japan

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake rattled the northeastern coast of Japan Monday evening, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

Japan's Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami warning, predicting a potential wave of two-meters in Miyagi, Fukushima and Chiba and Ibaraki prefectures.

The quake was centered about 164 kilometers (101 miles) northeast of Tokyo, according to the USGS. Residents in Tokyo felt the jolts.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/11/magnitude-7-1-earthquake-rattles-coast-of-japan/?iref=obinsite

Magnitude 6.7 earthquake strikes Mexico

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.7 hit the region of Veracruz, Mexico, the U.S. Geological Survey reported Thursday. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/07/magnitude-6-7-earthquake-strikes-mexico/?iref=obinsite



Take note of the perfunctory statement included in this article letting us know that these events are "random" with nothing to worry about....


Moderate earthquakes strike Mexico, Alaska, Japan

Moderate earthquakes struck in Mexico, Alaska and Japan on Thursday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The first earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.8 struck in southwestern Mexico, in the state of Guerrero, according to the USGS. The Mexican Seismological Service put the magnitude at 5.5. Many people exited the buildings they were in, but there were no immediate reports of damage.

Then a 5.8 magnitude earthquake was recorded on the Alaska Peninsula 14 miles south of Sand Point, Alaska and 573 miles southwest of Anchorage.

It was followed by a 6.1 earthquake that hit below the sea floor off the coast of the Japanese island of Honshu Thursday, the U.S. Geological Survey said. The depth of the quake is 15 miles, the USGS said and the epicenter is located 172 miles from Sendai, near the same zone as the aftershocks that followed the March 11 quake. The Japan Meteorological Agency has so far not released any tsunami warning.

Julie Dutton, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colorado, said that while it makes some people wary to see several moderate earthquakes (ones that register between 5.0 and 5.9) occurring in such a short time span, it isn't out of the norm.

"It's not something that occurs every day, but this is definitely not something we haven't seen before, or that we won't see again," she told CNN. "Earthquakes are kind of cyclic and sometimes it'll just happen that you'll have an influx of earthquakes around the same time. Other times they'll just be spread out."

For example, Dutton said there was a day in the past week where there were 12 moderate earthquakes recorded in one day. She acknowledged that on that day, they were on the lower part of the moderate scale, and that these three were a bit higher, but said it was certainly not something to be overly concerned about.

"We've had five or six of them every day for the last week, so it's definitely not something that we're concerned about," she said. "Its just pretty random at this point and it just happened that a bunch were higher today."
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/05/moderate-earthquakes-strike-mexico-alaska-japan/?hpt=T2

Regards,
Sun




« Last Edit: May 05, 2011, 08:21:04 PM by Sundowner »
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Offline Sundowner

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #106 on: May 05, 2011, 08:18:26 PM »
You are correct stating that pattern recognition is, undisputably, a vital component of life. And I also understand when you state that we have to work with what data we have available. Altough, the point, I think, you fail to consider is that too small of a sample can bring one to draw flawed conclusion. Even among the scientific community there is no consensus about the warming trend we seem to be experiencing and it's effect on weather. When one say that the climate is changing, the underlying assumption is that it is changing in regard with some data sample. The only reliable (and somewhat comlete) record we have available date back from 1800-1850. Saying that climate is changing in regard to these records is true. But that leads us to assume that the climate was always like that and was very stable, an assumption proven wrong by scientific research and earlier incomplete or indirect record. There was a period spanning between the 16th century up to the 19th century, dubbed the 'little ice age' where temperature were much cooler than today's . We have records in the form of some painting dating from the 17th century, that shows the Thames in London to be completely frozen over. Something not seen for a very long time now. And before that there was the 'medieval warm period' spanning roughly from 950 AD to 1250 AD.

And speaking about patern :
(Image removed from quote.)

This is a graphical depiction of the measurment taken from the Vostok ice core in Antartica. It span for about 450k years. Today being on the left most. The trend I see in this is a very cyclic and unstable temperature patern with a frenquency of nearly 100 000 years. One could assume that this is the pattern that repeat itself over and over, and yet we must not fall into this trap, as if one could see the temperature curve over the last 4 billions of years, that another, larger in scall, patern emerge (tough I must admit that's a complete assumption on my part here but given the pattern...). Of course this alone gives us no idea of what were the effect of the temperature change on the weather system, but it is thought that warmer temperature at the equator makes for stronger weather system as the heat seek to distribute itself evenly around the globe.

I'll conced one point to you. It is quite possible that, in the longer term, climate change does cause the end of the human world. That does not, in any way, imply that the earth will be devoid of life. In the mean time, we have to learn to cope with the increasing effect weather have on human activity. That does not mean the weather is getting harsher. It means that there are more people and activity that are affected by it. Back 100 years who would have cared for a solar flare as there was no big scale network to be knocked down by it. Back 400 years, the native-american were probably not crazy enough to build their home right in the middle of the tornadoes alley. And they probably moved away when the Mississipi menaced of flooding the surrounding land. These are a few, probably bad and refutable, example I found.

 :salute

PuppetZ, you've made some thoughtful points that deserve a good response..unfortunately the bed calls followed by an early work report time..I'll do my best to get back to you at a later date. :salute

Regards,
Sun
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Offline PuppetZ

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #107 on: May 05, 2011, 10:13:00 PM »
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/other/quake1.html

This little website compile data from the USGS about quake worldwide since 1970. The numbers do show an increase in the frequency of mid strength quake.



But as this graphic show, it looks like earth is was experiencing a fairly low level of seismic activity throughout the 80's and the 90's. The 7 years average (grey line) energy released getting to a century low between 1980 and 1990. One could see the increased activity as a consequence of this low. Fault line all around the globe were inactive on a large scall. Tensions accumulated through these years is released at some point. Which appears to be now. Yet again, the consequence are centered on how these events disrupt human activity and not the capability of the globe to sustain life.

Also

I'm not including the sociological /cultural accelerating changes because there are those that will claim the "self-fulfilling prophesies" card. Regardless, this vector of phenomena is still manifest. Do your own research...I'll leave it at that.

I'm in total agreement with that statement.

The danger doesn't lie in the natural disaster itself, but in how people react to it. People are always afraid of what they don't understand... and someone with a lot of common sense said one time : the IQ of a crowd is inversely proportional to the number of people constituting it.


 :salute
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Offline usvi

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #108 on: May 05, 2011, 10:36:54 PM »
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Offline spammer

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #109 on: May 05, 2011, 11:54:49 PM »
The Mayan Calender, Nostradamus, The book of revelations. Oh yeah death is certain. It will be the super volcano that erupts in Yellowstone that ends all........except if we have a polar shift before that. I'm convinced that we all will die miserably, if not in 2012,2013,2014,2015,etc,etc. I honestly think we're just not paying enough taxes.

I do have land for sale that is guaranteed to survive the end times, can you afford it?

you can reach me at: WWW.Saplandsrealtors.com

 :noid

Offline Lepape2

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #110 on: May 06, 2011, 02:23:53 AM »
The Mayan Calender, Nostradamus, The book of revelations. Oh yeah death is certain. It will be the super volcano that erupts in Yellowstone that ends all........except if we have a polar shift before that. I'm convinced that we all will die miserably, if not in 2012,2013,2014,2015,etc,etc. I honestly think we're just not paying enough taxes.
[...]
 :noid

Yellowstone is not the only super volcano (caldera (not exactly the same but whatever)) on this earth... there are 5 others. But everyone talks about Yellowstone because its located in the USA.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano

Oh and Yellowstone erupted 7 times in 15millions years... I think we can handle this one ( for those who dont get the  :noid)
« Last Edit: May 06, 2011, 02:29:26 AM by Lepape2 »
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Offline stealth

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #111 on: May 06, 2011, 03:00:46 AM »
Only way the world will end if North Korea gets upset......again.
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Offline fudgums

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #112 on: May 06, 2011, 05:22:17 AM »
I'm surprised the world didn't end when the saints won the super bowl.
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Offline tassos

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #113 on: February 18, 2012, 07:59:01 AM »
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Offline lmxar

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #114 on: February 18, 2012, 08:14:04 AM »
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

NASA made an official response to the statement that the world is ending in 2012.

Offline cpxxx

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #115 on: February 18, 2012, 08:56:13 AM »
I'm still looking forward to all the end of world parties next December. :cool:

Offline SEraider

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #116 on: February 18, 2012, 05:07:44 PM »
If it ends....it ends.  :angel:
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Offline Flench

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #117 on: February 18, 2012, 05:21:30 PM »
I'm ready for it . I sould have the ammo for it .
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Offline oakranger

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #118 on: February 18, 2012, 05:54:11 PM »
I will take any cars, houses and money that you do not want when the day comes.  Just IP me when you are ready to hand it all over for free. 
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Offline F22RaptorDude

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Re: 2012 End of The World?
« Reply #119 on: February 18, 2012, 06:07:28 PM »
I don't wanna die young, I wanted to die on my 6th centennial birthday  :rofl
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