A highly simplistic estimate of SARS-2 in the Seattle area.
Cartoon model predicts 32 deaths as of today in Washington State.
Actual number is 37.
Worrying part is if 1 week from now the number is about 84, and 2 weeks from now about 223. That's a doubling every 5 days.
However, the state is heavily promoting social distancing. All sporting events and most other events cancelled. Schools and universities closed. Workplaces are having as many people as possible work from home. This stuff will have an effect -- a good one on infection rate, a bad one on economy.
As of today, another of my acquaintances is showing symptoms. The first one couldn't get tested as of a couple of weeks ago. We'll see if the second one can get tested, or if testing is still FUBAR.
