Dark Man Cometh???

[rabbidrabbit]

Cartoon model predicts 32 deaths as of today in Washington State.

Actual number is 37.

Worrying part is if 1 week from now the number is about 84, and 2 weeks from now about 223.  That's a doubling every 5 days.

However, the state is heavily promoting social distancing.  All sporting events and most other events cancelled.  Schools and universities closed.  Workplaces are having as many people as possible work from home.  This stuff will have an effect -- a good one on infection rate, a bad one on economy.

As of today, another of my acquaintances is showing symptoms.  The first one couldn't get tested as of a couple of weeks ago.  We'll see if the second one can get tested, or if testing is still FUBAR.

Brooke, please keep updating whenever you can.  I appreciate it. 

[CptTrips]

Actually people that have had it are saying it is more like a bad cold.

It will be for most.

Except for the several hundred thousand Americans that end up in body-bags.
And the several million more that end up permanent lung damage and possibly shortened life spans from serious complications.

Unfortunately, given our demographics, I suspect this community might be hit disproportionately hard. Piled on top of an almost certain recession, I'm afraid it might be a one-two punch for this game and HTC.

But we might get a bump for a while during quarantine.

[SysError]

As of today, another of my acquaintances is showing symptoms.  The first one couldn't get tested as of a couple of weeks ago.  We'll see if the second one can get tested, or if testing is still FUBAR.

Just heard on the radio that only 15,000 tests have been done to date (which seems really low - I am not sure what time frame they are talking about) but a bigger factor is where you are and if your state has stepped in or not to pickup testing.



Edit: Maybe the 15K is federal tests?
 

[Arlo]

Because reality in his world is measured in "likes".

 

Well, as Bill says:

[Hungry]

If you want to compare the current virus timeline to the H1N1 response I think? this is where you will find it, this is directly from the CDC, looking forward to comments

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

Hungry

[Mister Fork]

[Arlo]

Ya'll have 'ketchup potato chips?'

[CptTrips]

Unless it turns out to be a different strain, I'm not convinced our outcomes will ultimately be better than Italy's.

There is an argument that the main drivers to Italy's emergency are:
   1.  Their demographics skew older than the rest of Europe on average.
   2.  There was confusion and indecisiveness in the early days of the infection that delayed their aggressive response.

In the US:
   1.  We have a large aging boomer population that will be especially vulnerable to this threat.  Many of whom live in medically under-served rural areas. 
   2.  This administrations response has been an unmitigated clown show.  At least in the first phase.  And as I said before, the only leverage you have on an exponential curve is in the first few hours, days, weeks.  Once the curve bends and starts climbing, not even drastic, heroic efforts will make a dent.  The tyranny of large numbers.

We started unprepared and have fumbled the ball at almost every step.  After we've buried all the dead, we can debate how much has been directly Trump's fault, or how much has merely happened under his watch.  However, everything that happens under your command is your responsibility, even if it isn't your fault.  Those of you who have served in the military shouldn't have to have that explained to you.

The difference between us and Italy?  Two or three weeks.  It took a little longer to get here.

And again, we don't have enough hospital beds or ventilators and this is going to happen way too fast to start building them.  That's going to cause more to die needlessly:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/14/health-system-coronavirus-preparation-129066

[The Fugitive]

Because reality in his world is measured in "likes".

 

I wish I could "like" this statement.............. oh wait

[oboe]

3.9k likes and 9 dislikes tells me its very real. There arent many researchers who get that kind of like to dislike ratio. Just because your imagination tells you it's fake, doesnt mean it is. I'm sorry that you cant fathom that your precious Democrats are corrupt anti Americans selling us out for their own personal gain. I guess that's why you don't understand how Trump won in a landslide and why he will win in another one.

Another lie.  Trump did not win 2016 in a landslide.  Period.  He had 306 Electoral College votes to his opponent's 232.   He won 57% of the Electoral College votes; well below the historical average victory of 71%.  Trump’s margin of victory actually ranked 46th out of 58 U.S. presidential elections.

https://www.factcheck.org/2016/11/trump-landslide-nope/

[DREDIOCK]

I dont come around or post as much as i used to so perhaps the rules here have changed of been waved. But I am astounded this thread hasnt been locked yet for the political rantings I see.

As for the virus. Take it seriously but be rational. Not ridiculous. Most people including the media these days are being ridiculous.
Your fear should be of getting sick. NOT dying.
Lets flip the spin around for a moment
Its stated that the morality rate of this is currently at 3.5%.  And that is what the media... ALL media is pushing. Thats what keeps you tuned in and buying papers. But mathematically speaking if we use that number and accept it as absolute fact but flip it around to tell the other side of the story thats being mentioned but largely ignored and downplayed by comparison by the media. That means that 96.5% of the people who get it will recover and many of those will have little to no symptoms at all.
Now. if we look at that mortality rate. We also see it has largely only taken place with a specific subset of people. Those being the not simply the elderly. but elderly WITH pre existing conditions. And those with pre existing heart, respiratory and compromised immune systems. Remove the elderly from those death rates and the MR drops to lower then the flu. And children seem to survive it just fine. (probably because they have stronger immune systems because they spend most of their time being dirty)

30 years ago I was told I had a form of cancer called Hodgkin Lymphoma. the first thin the Doctor said to me was "the first thing I want to tell you is you arent going to die" then he paused and said. "Well I cant promise that 100% because nothing is 100%. But I can tell you that your cancer had a 90% cure rate and the odds are strongly in your favor."

Of course when you hear that. You mind irrationally goes to "Ill be in that 10%" Because most of us associate cancer with a death sentence. And i can tell you right now that not a day went by that I wasnt secretly at least a little bit terrified that I would be in that 10%. Now while I had good reason to be concerned. i was in those terrified moment being irrational

The same holds true here. 96% is certainly better odds then 90%
Nobody wants to be sick. THAT is the concern.  And that concern is real. But we should try to avoid being irrational about it. And thats when many people are and what the media is pushing.
And speaking of being irrational
Anyone been to the grocery store lately? Or Costo? Not only are things like water and toilet paper disappearing, but food is starting to as well I had to pay $6 for a dozen organic eggs yesterday not because I like or care about organic. or I was afraid the store would run out of eggs. But simply because I was in the mood for egg salad and was out of eggs. They are buying them according to the store clerk 6-8 dozen at a time up like they are afraid that chickens are going to stop laying them. I have photos on my phone of a line at costco that is 100 yards long with elbow to elbow people trying to hoard food and doing in the process exactly what the exerts are saying not to do. Gather in large numbers in close quarters.
Or as my mother said. "they are swarming in large numbers together to get things so they can avoid being around large numbers"
So irrational are people being that they dont realize they would be safer had everyone just went about their normal lives and shopped the way they normally do.

Relax. Be concerned but not absurd. Protect the people most likely to be hurt the most. the unhealthy elderly, and those with compromised systems. THOSE are the ones to be concerned the most over. but as for everyone else Even if you get it you will likely get sick and feel sick but will likely live and survive just fine. Just do what you are normally supposed to do when you get sick. Stay away form other people.
If you were told that if you went to the store right now and bought a ticket that you  had a 96.5% chance of winning this weeks powerball. You would be jumping for joy and running over people to get there.
And that is your survival rate

Be concerned yes
But be rational
Not ridiculous

Lastly. Stop fixating on the government response.  The obsession people seem to have these days with the guy in the oval office should be listed as a mental illness in itself. Its not healthy to be that obsessed with anything or anyone.
And this governments response hasn't been any worse then any other governments response. there is no way it wasn't getting here and some of the countries I have seen in other forums people comparing us to have 1/6th plus the population we do.
There was and is no perfect answer. and had the current actions been taken sooner it likely would have resulted in the same mass panic we are seeing now.

And unless you are planning on spending all of your out of the house time dressed capped and gowned like surgeon or in a hazmat suit and decontaminating yourself every time you foray out of your house. The masks wont protect you and most people dont know how to wear them correctly anyway, and even those that do cant handle wearing them but for short periods before they say screw it and either take it off. or start messing with it. I know this from personal experience.

Last but not least. You dont need antibacterial soap. ANY soap will do provided you use the 20 second rule.

[morfiend]

Ya'll have 'ketchup potato chips?'

 Yes,yes we do and we have bacon flavored ones too!  Not that fake US Canadian bacon stuff but real bacon.

  You havent lived until you try ketchup and bacon chips on a PB sammich.



   

PS: My wife calls them yankee tators.

[Hungry]

I dont come around or post as much as i used to so perhaps the rules here have changed of been waved. But I am astounded this thread hasnt been locked yet for the political rantings I see.

Just a couple of guess's

He's a liberal democrat
He's enjoying seeing DS take a beating
He's trying to get Coved-19 info out there
He wants to see just how far some will go with the name calling and insults
He's busy elsewhere

Shame. this could have been a very good informative thread, sharing local information and current news from your area of the country, maybe it can still get back on track, we need to share reliable information, this is serious

Same topic in the Jayco RV forum has been warned and got off track a little but is still going with good info

Hungry (wife and I are in the over 60 crowd, wife has had colon cancer and I'm working on 67)

[Hungry]

PS

When the stuff really hits the fan and we grab our hardware and provisions where are we going to go to circle the wagons at, I told my boys if it ever gets to that we'll most likely start out as defenders of our family (large) and stuff, but when we run out of food do we turn into the same as those we were defending against?

Hungry

[CptTrips]

I'm always amused at the people who's defensive reaction to information that is uncomfortable for them is, "stop panicking!"
It's not panic.  It's simply information they are not comfortable hearing. 

I have limited concern for my own safety.  I work 100% remotely now.  I have land and a cabin in a rural area I can escape to if things get bad.  I'm well stocked here, as well as at my land.  I can reduce my contact to virtually nothing for the next year.

That doesn't reduce my overall concern for my friends, family, city, state, and country as a whole.  I also have some vague concern for those friends in other countries.

Hundreds of thousands of American's will probably die from this between now and when we get a vaccine.  I don't minimize that loss just because most might be over 60.
Millions more are going to have the educations, careers, and family lives disrupted by major illness and hospitalization that might leave their lungs permanently damaged.
Tens of millions more will lose jobs and businesses and retirement money.  Anyone trying to minimize the impact this is going to cause, hasn't thought it through or has been watching too much Fox News.

While the people with stacked carts look silly, there is some logic to it.  It is my policy and what I've recommended to friends and family is when you go to the store, stock up as much as you possibly can.  That is not panic.  That is risk mitigation.  That allows you longer periods of time before you have to go back for more.  Every trips to a grocery store is another risk of contamination.  Reducing the frequency you have to be exposed to that, reduces you risk.

And given the nature of exponential infection, is is safer to stand in the lines now than it will be two weeks from now.  My advice is to go every day now and load up the maximum you can until you are out of freezer and storage space.  That way you can hunker down for a long time. There is no waste.  If we got a vaccine tomorrow, you just have a lot of supplies that you can eat down over time (avoid perishables).  Risk/reward game theory suggests load up those carts now.  And when you finally have to go back, load up to the maximum again so you can get so you optimize reward for risk and not have to do that very often.

Luckily my carnivore diet has simplified things greatly.  All I need is meat, salt, and water.  I have chest freezers here and at the cabin filled with hundreds of pounds of grass-fed beef and organs.  very high nutrition:volume ratio.  And when I need more, it's online ordered from a Texas ranch and they ship it to me and leave it in front of my door.  I order in volume.  And I highly doubt the electricity with cut off or the water will stop coming out of the tap. I could go months without going into a grocery store if I had to.