Originally posted by Sixpence
Unfortunately, time is of the essence. We need to expedite our plans for a new government. The sooner we leave, the better we look. They supported our cause, but they don't want us to stay. I think if we can improve living conditions quickly, that can help in their tolerance of our presence. If we stay too long it will seem to be occupation to them, and support will begin to erode.
There will be a struggle for power. Those who oppose the U.S. backed government factions will use "occupation" as a rally cry. Sure the war was not about oil, but the bottom line is whoever gains control of the government, gains control of that oil. Some say their oil is of better quality and easier to extract than that of saudi arabia. I believe they are also a member of OPEC? There is alot at stake here. Hundreds of billions. And everyone and their mother is gonna want a piece of the pie.The war was the easy part. Now comes the hard part.
I'm no expert on the middle east, and I could be totally wrong. That is just my opinion. In all honesty, I don't know what to expect, and that worries me more than anything.
WMD? It is clear they either destroyed them, or exported them. Success will not be measured by that.
I agree, however that may not neccessarily happen.
Our country, regardless of what people think about it, is pretty close to as good a system as you'll get. Here's why.
Most people (you, me, and the average schmo) like recognition and power. It's natural. And when you get it, you don't want to give it up. This is one of the things that make dictators. While most people have the morals to step down, rather than murder to retain their position, some don't. They get into power, usually legitimately (through election or popular appointment), then illegally and forcibly retain their power.
We got lucky. When America was founded, it was founded by a group of guys that HONESTLY wanted the system to work. So they set up a system of checks and balances. They also gave the population a lot of the power. Has every president shared this desire make the system work? Probably not, but the system makes ITSELF work. We had the right people do the right thing initially, and it just perpetuated itself. Any one of the early leaders had a good chance of turning the system into a dictatorship had he really wanted to.
We have to hope the same thing happens in Iraq. It's doubtful in my opinion, though. Whoever takes over has to truly have Iraq's best interests at heart. Chalabi seems to be the front runner now. I have my doubts about his motives. My fears are we removed one dictator, only to end up installing a "better" dictator. Only time will tell.
One of the biggest concers is Iraq's economy. It has the potential to be an extremely rich country. Can they manage that effectively? It's like handing Ft. Knox to a recent college grad, and telling him to "make a budget". It's not that easy, and comes with many temptations.
