Author Topic: The Void between Machine guns and cannons.  (Read 10443 times)

Offline Tony Williams

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« Reply #165 on: August 10, 2003, 03:27:37 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
One other thing to note. Way back when this was being churned around before, I think it was Pyro who pointed out that the "anecdotal" accounts were just as likely to underestimate shooting ranges as they were to be right on or overestimate.

Just something to ponder. Go ahead and discard it. ;)


There is some evidence that ranges were seriously underestimated by average pilots. This is from 'Flying Guns: WW2', about the RAF in 1940:  

"The basic problem was that few pilots were able to judge the aiming point correctly. They tended to underestimate both the range to the target and, for a deflection shot, the amount of lead that had to be allowed. And these were not small errors. When during trials pilots were asked to open fire at 300 yards, the actual distances varied between 800 and 1200 yards! Confronted with such unpleasant facts, the official advice given to fighter pilots was to take divide their range estimate by two and double their estimate of the lead! More practical was the advice to open fire from as close as possible, preferably less than 100 yards, and never from more than 300 yards. Halving the range would quadruple the number of hits."

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Offline Tony Williams

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« Reply #166 on: August 10, 2003, 03:34:47 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by HoHun
Hi everyone,

I'd like to point out that two effects haven't been given enough consideration in this thread:

1) With regard to the original machine guns vs. cannon question, it's important to remember that at least the German cannon ammunition was designed to destroy the structure of the aircraft so that they didn't have to rely on hit on critical components. I'm sure that other 20 mm cannon firing standard explosive shells shared this capability to a certain degree.

2) With regard to long range ballistics, it's imperative not to forget about dispersion.

Dispersion of wing-mounted 12.7 mm machine guns may be 6 mil, which means that at 800 m the projectiles impact in a 4.8 m circle - that's 18.1 m^2, while a fighter-sized target may offer around 3 m^2 target area. In other words, even with perfect aim, only 1 in 6 projectiles is going to hit.

Dispersion of a fuselage-mounted 13 mm machine guns will probably be less than 2 mil. That's an 1.6 m diameter circle, or a 2 m^2 area. That means that with perfect aim, the vast majority of the projectiles is going to hit.

(Of course, wing-mounting versus fuselage mounting doesn't depend on the weapon type. The P-38 for example can be expected to be outstanding in long range firepower.)

Now to get an impression of the effectiveness of machine guns at long range under realistic conditions, we can draw on German studies. According to their figures, the 15 mm MG151 per projectile had 27% of the effectiveness of the MG151/20, which in turn was reckoned to be able to reliably destroy a fighter with 6 random hits. The 12.7 mm Browning projectiles had 68% of the MG151's muzzle energy, which I'll take as indication of their relative effectiveness. As result, I'll consider 33 random hits by 12.7 mm ammunition enough to destroy a fighter aircraft. At 800 m, that would require about 201 rounds to be fired, which a battery of 6 Brownings could manage in about 2.9 s.

For comparison, how about a MG151/20 attack at 800 m? German sources give a 1.9 mil dispersion for this gun, so a 50% hit chance is a rather conservative estimate. That means with perfect aim, 12 rounds would have to be fired from centre-line mounted MG151/20 cannon. That would take a Fw 190 with its wing-root cannon just 0.5 s.

Of course, these calculations rely on the unrealistic assumption of perfect aim. To illustrate the effect of this factor: The Luftwaffe expected that a typical pilot under combat conditions firing a MG151/20 battery at a heavy bomber at 1000 m would have a hit ratio of 3%. However, the ballistic capabilities of the weapon hardly influenced the hit probability: The 50 mm MK214 which probably featured a much better trajectory than any other WW2 air combat weapon still gave the average Luftwaffe pilot no better than 4.2% hit chance under the same conditions.

On the other end of the scale, American gun sight testing after WW2, using a P-38, showed that it was possible for the (admittedly highly skilled) test pilot to make entire tracking runs with the nose within one mil of the ideal aiming point. Such a pilot might have been able to get just the results I've described under "perfect aim" above.

Whether Aces High requires the same degree to skill to achieve "perfect aim" as flying a real fighter does, I can't tell. However, I think this is more a matter of the flight modelling than of the ballistical modelling because the all-decisive question is "How well can you point the guns?"

Regards,

Henning (HoHun)


Good post, Henning.

As well as normal gun dispersion (which the Brownings generally had more of than the Hispanos) there was 'aim wander', which is what the RAF called the ability to keep the sights on target during a firing run.  It was discovered that it was almost impossible to do this in combat, and a burst of fire which may be on-target at the start would drift off-target by the end.

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Offline Kweassa

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« Reply #167 on: August 10, 2003, 04:50:45 AM »
Tony and Hohun, I'm curious about the 'aim wander' mentioned..

 What exactly is it? Oscillations or vibrations which would drift the point of aim from its original position?

 Or is there a possibility that it could be an optical illusion on the part of the pilot, due to the target maneuvering in minor stick inputs?

Offline HoHun

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« Reply #168 on: August 10, 2003, 06:07:22 AM »
Hi Kweassa,

>Tony and Hohun, I'm curious about the 'aim wander' mentioned..

>What exactly is it? Oscillations or vibrations which would drift the point of aim from its original position?

I picture it as result of controlling the attacking plane.

First priority is to get the sight on target. That's "position". If it's zeroed in, you get initial hits.

Second priority is to get the sight steady. That's "speed". If it's zero, you can get a burst in.

Third priority is to keep the sight's "speed" at zero. That's "acceleration". As controlling the aircraft consists of reacting on deviations, and a deviation in acceleration is very hard to notice for humans, I'd say it's almost impossible to keep acceleration zeroed as necessary for a sustained on-target burst.

That would be the inevitable "aim wander" in my opinion.

(As an aside, the Norden bombsight system used an autopilot that tried to zero "position" with fixed-throw control inputs while ignoring the other parameters. That was state-of-the-art autopilot technology at the time. When the Sperry sight came out that tried to zero position, speed and acceleration with variable control inputs, it proved - predictably - to be much more accurate than the Norden :-)

>Or is there a possibility that it could be an optical illusion on the part of the pilot, due to the target maneuvering in minor stick inputs?

That, too :-) But I'm sure you'd have "aim wander" even against stationary ground targets.

(Oh, and the control aspect of the problem is the reason I'd tend to agree with the people who prefer the term "gunnery" for the current problem over the term "ballistics".)

Regards,

Henning (HoHun)

Offline MANDOBLE

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« Reply #169 on: August 10, 2003, 07:00:58 AM »
aim wander is noticeable in IL2, not very much, but noticeable. In AH it is nonexistant. If you at gun camera videos, you will find that centering the target and keeping the target centered was not common. The sight was usually "balancing" left to right or viceversa. This aim wander may have little negative effect firing at close range, but would nagate long lange shots. And long range shots are not 1200 yards shots but 400 yards or more.

Offline Batz

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« Reply #170 on: August 10, 2003, 08:46:22 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
I don't think it proves anything. I think it explains why when somebody says "gunnery" I think of the event from the end of the barrel to the hit or miss of the target.


Thats why I asked what was the point of posting. I thought I missed something.

Quote
"Apparently, when you are talking "gunnery" you're talking damage model and or leathality as part of it. I don't see that; I view those as separate and distinct from "gunnery".


"Apparently"? It just came to you? It was pointed out at the very front of the thread. It was also pointed out by many others..

Quote
OK, clear something up for me.

You say IL and AH have the same ballistics. To me, that means the same trajectories for identical weapons/rounds and the same kinetics.

Since I don't have it and haven't played it, help me out here.

I assume the leathality is different. By that I specifically mean the effect of each round, chemical or kinetic, is different between AH and IL. BTW, I don't consider damage by either chemical or kinetic energy as part of "gunnery". To me that is properly in the leathality area.[/b]


Yes lethality, dm etc is different but ballistically what happens when the bullet leaves the barrel is as believable and as "scientific" as ah or your calculations above. Thats why ballistics werent the issue.

Quote
[/b]Now, the "artificial gamey stuff" that is different. That would be what, exactly? what are the differences in:

Tracers, hit sprites, range counters, ammo counters, every round/equal damage, hybrid rounds.

I think I know, but I want to be sure. Did I miss any other things that you feel make a big difference?[/b]


Thats already been answered in the thread. Go re read it.

Quote
[/b]Now, suppose for a second, that all these things were identical in both games. Do you hypothesize then that suddenly AH shooting habits would be like IL shooting habits? IE: shooting at shorter ranges?

And would the results of the hits at ~ the same ranges be the same with respect to leathality/damage/destruction?

What's your opinion on that?
[/b]

Same as kweassas

Quote
I believe so, Toad, I belive so.

(..and if there isn't any difference still, even when the many factors concerning the process of shooting are exactly up to IL2/FB levels, then the case be humbly closed... At least we be content there is better eye-candy.)



Quote
Look, YOU'RE the one that keeps on bringing up ammo counters like it's some BFD to a player. It's not to me and a lot of others like me I suspect. If I didn't have them, it wouldn't change the way I play. I KNOW I have plenty of ammo for one or two engagements in ANY case. After that, I'm still going to take any good shot, same as I would in the first two or three encounters.

Counters just don't figure into it for me or a lot of people. You make counters a key point of your argument as part of the "far more to it". I'm simply telling you that coutners don't matter to some folks, so you assumption isn't really valid in all cases, yet you continue to focus on it like it's an incredibly key factor.

Hey, like I said, take 'em out. I really doubt anyone will miss them, nor would they switch rides to get those critical counters back. As to reducing long range shooting, I think the effect, particularly in the MA, would be minimal. I know it wouldn't change my engagement tactics in the least.


Oh bull****.. keep bringing it up?

The only time I mentioned it was in defining "gunnery". I suggested as a part of the overall gunnery model that ammo counters amoung many ohter things (like ballistics) contribute to what we experience in AHs gunnery model. No where (quote me if you see other wise) did I say Ammo counters were an end all or even a major factor.

Outside defining gunnery the only time I "brought it up" was in reponse to your focus on that 1 issue. In the same way you focussed on ballistics even though it has been pointed out consistantly by many of the posters in the thread.

I said exactly what I meant about ammo counters

Quote
Ammo counters are a crutch and facilitate the amount of spray and pray you see because after 1 or 2 engagements where a person has expended ammo they will be unsure how much they have left. In the main where their are high concentrations of enemy one may be less likely to spray at long range and wait for a target thats closer in order to get the most out of his ammo load. Now one would look at the ammo counters see 200 rounds and think I am good for another pass. With out them hmm "how much ammo do I have? I'll go rearm". In planes like the hurr1 IIc typhie or the ho 5 in the ki 61 you run out of ammo quick. Withtheir high rate of fire its impossible to track how much ammo you have left. This is less a concern in jugs and ponies but it stillw will have an effect. This is especially relevent to events and scenarios. But you are focussing in on this like its the end all, much like your "ballistics".


No ammo will [b[help[/b] reduce spray and pray as I pointed out above. I also said ammo counters dont cause long range gunnery previously as well.

You just read what you wanna read. You take the general subject of gunnery and narrow down to 2 a specific issues. Even with the definitions that I offered its not an easy thing to narrow down. But you have ignored every post that said specifically that no one is talking directly about ballistics and now you do the same with ammo counters. It was you who made an issue of both.

I certainly never implied or stated ammo counters are the cause of long range gunnery. I said along with many other things getting rid of ammo counters will help reduce spray and pray as outlined in my quote above. In turn along with this and the "other" things the effective range may become closer then what it is now.


What Tony posted here and what you refer to as pyro posting previously doesnt mean that they were shooting folks down at 800 yards when they thought they were at 200.

The fact they underestimated their range was problem and in doing so they were less likely to get kills.

As Tony writes here

Quote
And these were not small errors. When during trials pilots were asked to open fire at 300 yards, the actual distances varied between 800 and 1200 yards! Confronted with such unpleasant facts, the official advice given to fighter pilots was to take divide their range estimate by two and double their estimate of the lead! More practical was the advice to open fire from as close as possible, preferably less than 100 yards, and never from more than 300 yards. Halving the range would quadruple the number of hits."


now go back and read Hohuns post

Quote
Dispersion of wing-mounted 12.7 mm machine guns may be 6 mil, which means that at 800 m the projectiles impact in a 4.8 m circle - that's 18.1 m^2, while a fighter-sized target may offer around 3 m^2 target area. In other words, even with perfect aim, only 1 in 6 projectiles is going to hit.

Dispersion of a fuselage-mounted 13 mm machine guns will probably be less than 2 mil. That's an 1.6 m diameter circle, or a 2 m^2 area. That means that with perfect aim, the vast majority of the projectiles is going to hit.

(Of course, wing-mounting versus fuselage mounting doesn't depend on the weapon type. The P-38 for example can be expected to be outstanding in long range firepower.)

Now to get an impression of the effectiveness of machine guns at long range under realistic conditions, we can draw on German studies. According to their figures, the 15 mm MG151 per projectile had 27% of the effectiveness of the MG151/20, which in turn was reckoned to be able to reliably destroy a fighter with 6 random hits. The 12.7 mm Browning projectiles had 68% of the MG151's muzzle energy, which I'll take as indication of their relative effectiveness. As result, I'll consider 33 random hits by 12.7 mm ammunition enough to destroy a fighter aircraft. At 800 m, that would require about 201 rounds to be fired, which a battery of 6 Brownings could manage in about 2.9 s.

For comparison, how about a MG151/20 attack at 800 m? German sources give a 1.9 mil dispersion for this gun, so a 50% hit chance is a rather conservative estimate. That means with perfect aim, 12 rounds would have to be fired from centre-line mounted MG151/20 cannon. That would take a Fw 190 with its wing-root cannon just 0.5 s.

Of course, these calculations rely on the unrealistic assumption of perfect aim. To illustrate the effect of this factor: The Luftwaffe expected that a typical pilot under combat conditions firing a MG151/20 battery at a heavy bomber at 1000 m would have a hit ratio of 3%. However, the ballistic capabilities of the weapon hardly influenced the hit probability: The 50 mm MK214 which probably featured a much better trajectory than any other WW2 air combat weapon still gave the average Luftwaffe pilot no better than 4.2% hit chance under the same conditions.

On the other end of the scale, American gun sight testing after WW2, using a P-38, showed that it was possible for the (admittedly highly skilled) test pilot to make entire tracking runs with the nose within one mil of the ideal aiming point. Such a pilot might have been able to get just the results I've described under "perfect aim" above.

Whether Aces High requires the same degree to skill to achieve "perfect aim" as flying a real fighter does, I can't tell. However, I think this is more a matter of the flight modelling than of the ballistical modelling because the all-decisive question is "How well can you point the guns?"

Offline Toad

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« Reply #171 on: August 10, 2003, 09:04:44 AM »
You or Brady have CT set up capability. Why don't you set up the CT as close as possible to IL parameters and run it for a month or two and test your theories?

Turn icons off, turn tracer off, whatever you can do; I don't know what IL does and you didn't deign to explain. See what happens.

Beyond that, once again, rather than all this angst, why don't you call HT and see if he'll go for any of this in AH2? Maybe if only as CM options if he won't go for it in the "normal" programming? Nothing to lose....... except the fun of long bbs posts about the sad state of AH.

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Offline Batz

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« Reply #172 on: August 10, 2003, 09:46:32 AM »
I quit the ct some time  back before I became "batz".

Il2 has different icon settings from range counters, colors, plane type only etc. It depends on the hosts preference. As I said I am not a no icon advocate although most of my il2 time is with "no icons". No icons in any game I have played makes it artificially difficult.

My preference in il2 in plane type only. You can set color range in close so that the icon turns color when you are right on him. But as  I said each individual has their own preference.

You cant turn off icons in AH. Theres 2 settings short and long. 3k 6k.

You cant turn off tracers for everyone either.

You certainly cant make the ah dm like il2. You can adjust gun lethality but as I said thats an issue related to the dm mostly, each round will still cause the same damage. Just in higher or lower amounts. I havent found in the TE where you could redo the hit sprites or remove ammo counters.

Angst? over AH?

I have not advocated change in anyway or made any demand. Quote me if I did other wise. I simply pointed out that Ah has long range gunnery and heres what I think will change it. I dont care much if HT changes it or not. I think it would make for better gameplay but my ideas on gameplay dont fit well with the rest of the AH arena players. I dont think the current model is "real" in its effects.

The current gunnery in no way effects my descision to fly or not fly ah. Again some discussions are just that and dont necessarily have to change anything.

Offline Toad

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« Reply #173 on: August 10, 2003, 10:17:10 AM »
So you don't care if anything changes? You just like to beat dead horses? :)

If new ideas are going to be tried, I'd think the best time to get them in, if only as CM options, would be before AH2 is finished and released.

I do occasionally advocate change but I don't make any demands. I think Ah has longer range gunnery than some other sims and more leathality. My point of reference here is WB, the last ACM game I played extensively. I haven't played it since the AH beta though. I feel that gunnery, in the strict definition is better here than WB, that the leathality here is far better than WB but the damage model is about the same and could use improvement. I also dont care if HT changes it. Gunnery, leathality and damage are not the reasons I find it more difficult to enjoy AH lately.

The biggest problem with gameplay is not in gunnery, leathality or damage modeling. The problem can be seen any night in the MA. The game is no longer about fighting in aircraft, IMO, and that's my problem with it. It's a landgrab where numbers are the only truly necessary component.

My style is to float a trial balloon on this BBS and see the reactions it draws. There's some sharp folks here with good info and I always learn something and refine my idea. Then, if the HTC folks don't chime in AND I think it's really a worthwhile idea, I'll talk to the folks that can actually DO SOMETHING about it and see what they think.

Otherwise, I'll just let the dead horse go with just the first kick of the carcass.
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Offline Batz

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« Reply #174 on: August 10, 2003, 10:58:19 AM »
My involvement in this thread has nothing to do with Ht. It was offering an opinion on the subject. Nothing more. I  have no desire to be a lobbyist for change especially given the alternatives. It will change or it wont. If I think it sucks I wont fly it.  There seems to be a few changes otw with AH2. We will see.

The cms have asked for additional cm tools for the longest time. But these would amount to no more then variations in Icons. The rest is built into the game.

The dead horse was well flogged 2 posts into your ballistics talk. I just got a few shots in.

Quote
. I think Ah has longer range gunnery than some other sims and more leathality. My point of reference here is WB, the last ACM game I played extensively. I haven't played it since the AH beta though. I feel that gunnery, in the strict definition is better here than WB, that the leathality here is far better than WB but the damage model is about the same and could use improvement. I also dont care if HT changes it. Gunnery, leathality and damage are not the reasons I find it more difficult to enjoy AH lately.


I would agree. For the amount of action that AH has it beats most in gameplay. I dont care for large maps and I dont care for fuel porkage and night. Thats why I rarely fly any more.

However I think the "gunnery"  adjustments mentioned would make ah more fun but it only has a very small impact on the fun level overall.

But what do I know.

Offline Toad

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« Reply #175 on: August 10, 2003, 11:17:11 AM »
:D

Just one long "it doesn't meet my perception of reality" thread wasn't it then?

BTW, a question on tracer. Obviously they used them in WW2 and obviously they were an "aiming crutch". I'm not sure I understand your preference from what you said. You prefer them removed totally or what? As I said, I have no idea how IL3 does it, but I assume they have tracer ammo?
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Offline Batz

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« Reply #176 on: August 10, 2003, 12:22:31 PM »
tracers were in intervals in the ammo chain. You didnt aim with tracers because ballistically they were different then the other rounds.

Il2 has tracers in every round as well. From what I heard Ht will redo ah tracers in AH2. Ah tracers now are all you need to aim. The gunsite isnt required. Atleast not for me. My gunsite is blank. The tracer effect in ah allows for pin point accurracy.

No this thread was started by F4 wondering why 2 planes with similiar performance are radically different in their ability to kill. The big difference is cannons, in particular the hissos. It then went into into a general gunnery question including dm and  long range hits. For the most part I was out of thast discussion.

I believe it was you that tried to take it elsewhere by focussing solely on ballistics. Thats when I came back to this thread and asked why you were doing that when it was so clearly stated through out the thread ballistics werent in question and that some thing "other" was creating the results in ah. I then listed my opinion on what they were. You then directed your attention from ballistics to ammo counters etc.

I think thats pretty accurate but i cant be bothered to go back and check.

;)

Offline Toad

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« Reply #177 on: August 10, 2003, 01:14:33 PM »
Yes, and I was under the impression that AH has tracer in at intervals? That we're only seeing about 1 in 5 rounds. Is this incorrect?

If tracers were not an aiming aid, what were they then? Why'd they use them?

And, it brings to mind the question that if you think tracers in AH contribute to the part you don't like, what then of IL2 which you apparently consider superior in this regard but uses the same tracer system? It would seem then that the tracers have nothing to do with the difference as they are the same in both games. Clear this up for me, will you?

Nah, it was a leathality/damage model thread that had a few "shouldn't shoot that far" elements. I posted the comments that I felt were to that effect. If I were feeling supercilious, I'd put something in about re-reading. ;)

Ammo counters again? OK, let's review. You listed them in your comment about crutches or whatever, I gave you my opinion on them, you replied to that, I replied, ad nauseaum. Now, seems to me it's an unbroken chain that started with you. And here we are. Unless, of course, no one gets to reply to your opinions with an opinion of their own.
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Offline john9001

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« Reply #178 on: August 10, 2003, 01:26:31 PM »
<<>>>

yes , what were the tracers used for? maybe they were used to let the enemy know you were shooting at them, rather sporting old boy. pip pip cheereo

Offline Batz

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« Reply #179 on: August 10, 2003, 02:40:46 PM »
No toad you just shift around. "Ammo counters being crutch" was a direct reply to your question when you finally excepted nobody gave a crap about your little charts.

So you latched on to it. And took it out context.

Il2 tracers are different but who said superior? Thats your word. They are different and you cant aim by tracer.

As to 1 in 5 on ah tracers I dunno but in ah with these tracers theres no need for a gunsite. Matched with the current hit sprites and long range gunery is made easy.

And I just reread the thread. Quote one person who said bullets could not shoot far?  or hurt you?

You took the 1 thing you thought you could come into to the thread with and "say look these numbers are right" arent I brilliant. Even after numerous times it was pointed out that no one was referring to ballistics. Then you moved onto ammo counters and shifted directions. Maybe be a case of adult ADD.

Dunno but I'll leave you to it....

John you're an idiot ask Toad to do a search for ya Im sure he will find pilot accounts that talk about tracers.