Author Topic: Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro  (Read 1690 times)

Offline miko2d

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3177
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #60 on: October 10, 2003, 07:06:05 PM »
Kieran: You might be right. I was under the delusion we were the world's largest consumer of manufactured goods.

 True. We are consuming $500 billion worth every year giving nothing in return.

I suppose if that well runs dry the rest of the world's economies will be hunky-dory, with nary a blip on their stocks. Or maybe not.

 Well is a source. We are sink. When chinese $100 bil a year well runs dry and Japanese  $100  a year well runs dry and evan French $10 bil a year runs dry, we will end up with less stuff.

 Our dollar is not backed up by goods or taxing power of US economy, it is backed up by goods and taxing power of Chinese and Japanese and other economies. The dollar only holds as high as it is because they artificially support it - by buying it out. They may stop.


GScholz: I think what Miko is trying to say is that you're consuming more than you're worth.

 Than we produce. About 25% more according to my calculations. And asians and europeans of course consume that much less. So we can strut all uppity and boast how much better we live here.

Kieran:  I'm just learning here, but... even if we do consume more than we produce, it's a market no one really wants to lose

 It's a market that politically-influential exporters (labor and industry) of those countries do not want to lose - even though it is paid by the taxes collected from their countrymen.
 Instead of paying people welfare for not doing anything, like in US, they end up paying "welfare" to their export industries to produce stuff for US. Do we want to rely on this continuing? Do you even think that our government is trying to preserve this situation? We have our own special interest groups that do not want our consumers get cheep foreign goods.
 So our government raises tariffs on lumber and steel and other stuff and just recently demanded chinese to stop supporting dollar.
 Those people are completely oblivious to the operation of the economics principles.

 threedays: nice post miko
but tell me.. do you realy belive that Coalition have enough power to start war with Iran ?
Iran is a bit diferent country that Iraq..


 I am not sure. We certainly do not have troops left to occupy it. we could destroy them in a matter of weeks.
 But we do not even have to defeat them in order to make them stop accepting Euro for their oil. We could just find some excuse and blockade their ports until they behave.


AKIron: Common sense, you know it's not true how?

 Right. SH was bad so he oppressed. SH oppressed so he was bad.
 SH was evil, so he must have lied. SH lied, which proves he was evil.
 Your common sense is nothing but circular logic.

 We find no WMDs and no mass graves in Iraq but a population that have been armed with millions of AK-47s and an army composed of oppressed majority and and are supposed to believe he was oppressing them.

 miko

Offline Toad

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 18415
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #61 on: October 10, 2003, 07:09:49 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Thrawn
Long, painful process to relearn.
 


Sorta doubt that. There's folks here that make superb chairs. Their knowledge could rapidly be spread around.

How long did it take us to teach a million farm boys how to fly in WW2?

Just one example.

The knowledge base is here. It'd probably take longer to build the machinery.

But then you have that example of the guy that rigged up the ID flasher in GW 1. Two weeks and it was in theater? Something like that.

As Mark Twain sorta said "reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". Y'all might want to wait till were actually in our grave to dance on it.

:lol
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Habu

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1905
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #62 on: October 10, 2003, 07:12:05 PM »
Quote



Say the US trades France 100 laptops for 100 chiars.  Great everyone benefits.  The US gets some wine, and the French get some caculators.

But apparently with the trade deficate the US gets 100 chairs and France gets US dollars.  French government than taxes it's citizens, buys the dollars from the carpenter with those francs and sticks the US dollars in a vault.

[/B]Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work.

US gets chairs, Frances gets pieces of paper that it can't use, because if it uses pieces of paper the paper looses value.  So France is really getting nothing usable in exchange.  For all intents and purposes the carpenter is working for the US for free.  

 


:rofl

Offline Thrawn

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6972
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #63 on: October 10, 2003, 07:17:18 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
Sorta doubt that. There's folks here that make superb chairs. Their knowledge could rapidly be spread around.

How long did it take us to teach a million farm boys how to fly in WW2?

Just one example.

The knowledge base is here. It'd probably take longer to build the machinery.



It was an example Toad.  But yes the knowledge on how to make chairs is there, but if the trend continues?  What if France stops making those chairs for the US?  There won't be enough chair manfactures to produce the chairs the US needs.  Standard of living falls.


Quote
As Mark Twain sorta said "reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". Y'all might want to wait till were actually in our grave to dance on it.  


Cripes, I'm not dancing.  Maybe **** won't go down.  I'm just trying ot give a heads up.  Take it or leave it.


Habu, "Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work."

Than please enlighten me as to how I'm wrong.

Offline miko2d

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3177
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #64 on: October 10, 2003, 07:24:01 PM »
Habu: Lets say the world runs away from the US dollar. Ok so you have the US with a worthless currency.

 So fat so good.

Now what happens to all the other countries in the world that depend on the US for their exports? Ummm no market anymore.

 Tough. They will use the same tax money that paid for exports to US (via buying dollars) to pay unemployment benefits to those workers untill they find work producing stuff they really need inside. Their salaries drop under pressure but prices of goods drop even more - resulting in increase of real wages. Which is no surprise since the wealth will not be leaving the country.

Now what happens to the price of US product in the world? Hmmmmm great stuff for practically free. Lets buy more.

 True. They will buy stuff. Of course we will have problem producing stuff for a while becasue a lot of our manufacturing depends on imported raw material.

Domestic energy becomes much more attractive. When energy prices rise alternatives such as conservation become much more attractive.

 Yes, eventually. But for a while we wil have huge disruptions, deprivations due to loss or imported goods and domestic production. Most likely we will experience civil unrest and a breakdown of civil order for a few months.

Jap cars. No market anymore for them. The Jap economy dies. Japan no longer can afford to import European products as they will keep the Yen pegged to the US dollar.

 You contradict yourself. You just said the dollar will fail because they will unpeg the yen. So it will not fall but raise, not burdened by dollar. And Japanese do not buy european stuff with dollar received from US. They do not sell dollars, they buy them and take them out of circulation. That is what pegging is all about. They buy dollars at 120 yan while chinese buy dollars at 8.28 yuan, not sell them for products or other currency.

Oh and finally Gold becomes the new world standard. Guess who controls the majority of the worlds production of Gold? Ummm Canada and the US.

 Production of gold is miniscule - less than 2% of the total stock of gold. And US controls only a part of it. Africa and Russia produce a lot of gold.
 Even if US could ramp up the production of gold, the same would happen to the value of gold that happens to the value of dollar.


 Thrawn - you've got it right and are probably more eloquent than I am. The only thing you've left out is civil unrest that will occur during the readjustment period. As a canadian you do not have to worry about it as much as we do - only about some spillover effects. You will have a refugee problem.

 miko

Offline miko2d

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3177
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #65 on: October 10, 2003, 07:31:15 PM »
Habu: Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work.

 I wrote this. There is no free trade and no free currency market where US trade is concerned.
 The trade deficit and currency reserves of countries are public data. There is no equal value goods exchange. US gets extra $500 bil a year of goods, foreign currency reserves (dollars and T-notes) increase by $500 bil a year. We trade goods for coloured paper.

 Chinese government is buying $10 billion dollars a months at 8.28 yuan per dollar. What kind of trade is that?
 Chinese have trade deficit with the world. They are borrowing money and selling claims to capital in order to finance their growth. Why the heck would they borrow money instead of using those hundreds billions of dollars they have stored? Because as soon as they stop buying dollars at 8.28 and start selling them the dollar will sink.

 You have a different explanation for it other than that it sounds ridiculous and cannot continue indefinitely? It certainly does but it is what's going on.

 miko

Offline Kieran

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 4119
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #66 on: October 10, 2003, 08:01:49 PM »
Let's assume the worst happens as Miko suggests might... this country still has the raw materials and resources to resume manufacturing and production. In a way, this would be good news; I'm not a big NAFTA fan anyway. Of course the depression we'd have to suffer first would be unprecedented, but having been through this before I feel we'd come through ok.

Offline mrblack

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2191
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #67 on: October 10, 2003, 08:03:37 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by AKIron

Is it a necessary step to ensure our security? Since I don't have access to all the classified information I will defer to those elected and appointed officials that do.


Do you think without giving anything away maybe the American public should maybe have it told to us the real reasone why our sons and fathers are dying?

And Iron Im right down the road in Dallas /plano If you ever want to got together to trade old military stories.

Offline Toad

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 18415
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #68 on: October 10, 2003, 08:08:44 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Thrawn
Standard of living falls.


OH, that'll be the end of us fer sure.

The US actually ceased to exist during my parent's time. Great Depression, you know. No one survived... all life ended. Pretty sad.

I'm with Kieran on this one... might be the BEST thing that could happen to the country for resetting the gyros and getting the craniums out of the anal vents all across the land.

Tough times? Sure. Better on the other side, with a much more intelligent national outlook? Undoubtedly.

For example, my folks.. the only lucky pair the survived the Depression... are still not wasteful people, nor are they easily swayed by glittery things.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline miko2d

  • Parolee
  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3177
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #69 on: October 10, 2003, 08:17:40 PM »
Kieran: Let's assume the worst happens as Miko suggests might... this country still has the raw materials and resources to resume manufacturing and production.

 Absolutely. Well, free trade is beneficial to both sides compared to autarchy but the main problem here is wasting our productive capacity in exchange for current income and losing control of one's destiny.

 It would be much less desruptive to correct the situation as soon as possible in the controllable manner. The fed just has to stop printing dollars and raise bank reserve requirements (preferably to 100%), let interests raise to natural level and recession correct the misallocation of resources as well as trade balance. Of course it will mean problem for the next election and what poliician would do that?

 miko

Offline Thrawn

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6972
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #70 on: October 10, 2003, 08:40:03 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
OH, that'll be the end of us fer sure.

The US actually ceased to exist during my parent's time. Great Depression, you know. No one survived... all life ended. Pretty sad.


Aw for crying out loud Toad, where did I claim it would be.  Stop putting words in my mouth, will ya.

Offline GRUNHERZ

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 13413
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #71 on: October 10, 2003, 08:49:45 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by crabofix
I need to put you of my Ignore list. I tend to read a lot of your posts:lol

Yes, you can swing around figures and state this is the fact.

I can state that the unemployment of France is no more then 2% and that the US has 14% unemployment.

You better show your sources to theese figures or they might just be like mine? Mine are false.


http://www1.oecd.org/std/surjuly03a.htm

http://www.oecd.org

These figures are of course right wing Bush lies.  BTW you really didnt come in here thinking the EU/Euro countries had lower unemployment than the USA?  :rofl

Offline crabofix

  • Parolee
  • Nickel Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 481
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #72 on: October 10, 2003, 11:41:22 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
BTW you really didnt come in here thinking the EU/Euro countries had lower unemployment than the USA?  :rofl


Nope, but wanted to know the source of info.

Offline Kieran

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 4119
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #73 on: October 11, 2003, 07:19:14 AM »
Yeah, I ignored that 14% unemployment nonsense. What is the point?

Offline Habu

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1905
Russain Oil is tradeable in Euro
« Reply #74 on: October 11, 2003, 08:09:08 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by miko2d
Habu: Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work.

 I wrote this. There is no free trade and no free currency market where US trade is concerned.
 The trade deficit and currency reserves of countries are public data. There is no equal value goods exchange. US gets extra $500 bil a year of goods, foreign currency reserves (dollars and T-notes) increase by $500 bil a year. We trade goods for coloured paper.

 Chinese government is buying $10 billion dollars a months at 8.28 yuan per dollar. What kind of trade is that?
 Chinese have trade deficit with the world. They are borrowing money and selling claims to capital in order to finance their growth. Why the heck would they borrow money instead of using those hundreds billions of dollars they have stored? Because as soon as they stop buying dollars at 8.28 and start selling them the dollar will sink.

 You have a different explanation for it other than that it sounds ridiculous and cannot continue indefinitely? It certainly does but it is what's going on.

 miko


What is happening in China is this. Total exports from China are less than 10% of the total inflow of foreign exchange into the country. About 40% is being used for investments in plants and equipment etc. The rest is currency speculation. The Chinese government does not want the yuan to rise as it will kill the growth in exports. This is a temporary situation. The money that is excess is being parked in banks and will become available for loans etc that will encourage further growth in the economy. Companies in China want to keep their profits in Yuen as they are afraid the currency will rise. This creates enormous pressure on the currency.

But as in all attempts to manipulate foreign exchange values. Eventually market pressure will become too great to resist.

Market pressure is caused by all the little guys like me buy from China. I will gladly pay up front for goods knowing I am locking in my price (as long as I trust the vendor of course), and from the companies who own subsidiaries in China who park their profits there.

It is not about the US dollar being worthless. It is all about the government of China refusing to allow the Yuen to rise so that they can grow their economy at the expense of their citizen's living standards.