From what I read, my impression is the missile defense in Europe is the counterpart of the token missile defense on the U.S. west coast and Alaska: a small force able only to stop a few warheads from a limited attack as from North Korea or Iran or some James Bond villain terrorists.
Both systems would not deter China or Russia, and hence not destabilize any existing arms agreements.
Both China and Russia should welcome such limited missile defense systems as they presumably would help pinpoint the origin of any rogue attacks, hopefully intercept any limited attacks, and thus be much less likely to trigger any retaliation against China or Russia.
The scenario gets much more complicated if hostiles manage to launch missiles from within China or Russia. Even the best hotline communication would have trouble explaining that.
It is a tribute to world sanity that so far a nuclear exchange has been avoided. Between nations that want to live, deterrence has been workable. Governments understand that any defense against a mass nuclear attack can be overwhelmed.
For suicidal terrorists, no deterrence has yet proven effective at any level of conflict. Like exterminating hornets, the best tactic is to kill them in their nests, not swat at them after they launch.
Like it or not, the best strategy against terrorists is to devise mutually beneficial accomodations that help them value living more than dying, peacefully cooperating instead of destructively competing in basic survival needs. We're very good at destroying bodies but not so effective winning minds.
Ultimately a terrorist is anyone who has so much less power than his opponents that the only way he perceives he can change what he perceives as injustices is to strike by any means possible to cause as much grief and damage as possible to his perceived oppressors even if it costs his life, which to him has become unbearable anyway.
It helps if the terrorist is assured of a better life in the hereafter, especially if deeds against the perceived oppressors will magnify his reward.
So how do we fight such swarms of suicidal zealots? Exterminate all of them? Not likely. Win their leaders' minds? Great idea. Now, wonder how that can be done?
